GUINEAS AHEAD FOR SPRINT STAR: Daqman reports on yesterday’s Dewhurst as the race Shadow Of Light had to win twice; he danced the Light fantastic and his sprint programme now gives way to the 2000 Guineas.
NEXT WEEK: CHAMPION PREVIEWS: Starting tomorrow: all you need to know about Champions Day at Ascot next Saturday.
DEWHURST: LIGHT FANTASTIC
He had to win twice. With the Dewhurst field at Newmarket yesterday split into two groups, it became apparent that to race on the near side held an advantage.
Shadow Of Light first had to beat the far-side group then, when he came across, two or three lengths behind, to join the near side, had to find more to take the prize.
‘He found and found again,’ jockey William Buck told trainer Charlie Appleby and had no hesitation in advising him that the Guineas should be on the colt’s agenda.
Appleby immediately accepted that his sprinting plan for the winner should be shelved, at least until after a crack at the Guineas. It was unusual for a Middle Park winner to do the double in the Dewhurst, the first since 2017.
Just as I thought Ballet Slippers had finished best behind Desert Flower in the Fillies Mile, I marked down Expanded for finishing well and getting within a neck of the Dewhurst winner only a week after a week after winning at the Curragh a week ago.
Ballet Slippers and Expanded are both trained by Vincent O’Brien, who had to make do with a Group-3 two-year-old win with, Delacroix, in the Autumn Stakes yesterday.
Both Shadow Of Light and Desert Flower are trained for Godolphin by Charlie Appleby, putting him and William Buick in the Classics hot seat which had been held by O’Brien and The Lion In Winter.
The Lion In Winter missed the Dewhurst because of a septic foot caused by a stone cut on the gallops, and is unlikely to be seen again this season. ‘He’s had his two and won both,’ said O’Brien.
The last Middle Park winner to take the Guineas was Rodrigo de Triano (1991) and before that Brigadier Gerard (1970). The last to win the Derby was Dante (1944).
* Look out for Daqman’s ratings of this year’s two-year-olds: Three-Year-Olds of 2025.
I HAVE A TACTICAL PLAN
⭕ 3.35 Goodwood I’ll give the opener a swerve, although it does throw up the eye-catching combination of Nico De Boinville riding a Sir Mark Prescott trained runner on the flat! The race is confined to jump jockeys and it will be jumping weather too as the going is heavy on the Sussex Downs.
The conditions should suit Chester heavy ground winner Qetaifan in the second race but the Betdaq Betting Exchange market tells you that and as much as I like his chances I can’t be playing at around 1.6. Sometimes you just need to ‘let them win’ if you feel the odds have moved out of your comfort zone relative to your perceived probability.
I’ll save my one Goodwood bet for Tactical Plan in this seven furlong handicap. When the ground turns attritional I like to have an experienced two-year-old who perhaps is a little more streetwise at this early stage of their career.
The Ed Dunlop trained grey has winning form on soft at Chester and in a race where there could be some stamina doubts, he very much looks the percentage call.
Mayday Malone is officially rated the same (76) but was second to Tactical Plan at Chester and might struggle to reverse that form, despite meeting on more favourable terms as I feel the deeper ground will suit the selection better.
LUMPING ON THE NAP
⭕ 3.55 Ffos Las Jumping action in Wales and the 184 day break shouldn’t trouble Lump Sum who made a winning debut in a bumper at Bangor and then defied a longer 230 day break to win on hurdling debut here last November.
He’s proved himself at a much higher level in the interim including justifying favouritism in style when winning the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton before struggling when raised to the top grade at Aintree where he seemed over the top and didn’t jump as well as he usually does.
The break should have done him the world of good and this is a very realistic starting point for the season as I don’t consider his handicap mark to be too onerous.
Best horse in the race (on figures) is Pembroke but don’t be swayed by his form figures. He may well have set a record by winning two one horse ‘races’ in a row last season.
After a walkover at Warwick he finished alone in a four runner event at Aintree where his three rivals pulled up. I think he is best watched today as he returns to the smaller obstacles following a spell chasing.
WE’RE ON OUR WAY..
⭕ 4.30 FFos Las Blackacre is struggling to find a first win and his trainer Evan Williams is also not in the best of form so he might be worth opposing at the top of the market.
Getaway With You is 0-11 over hurdles and this might be best left to the last time out winners to fight it out.
I’m On My Way might have been on to a four-timer here but for unseating at Doncaster when still going well whilst Abbeyhill is looking to pick up where he left off last season and comes from Neil Mulholland’s yard who are in top form with 5 winners from their last 19 runners.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.35 Goodwood (win 10)
BET 2.8pts win TACTICAL PLAN
3.55 Ffos Las (win 10, nap)
BET 5.1pts win LUMP SUM
4.30 Ffos Las (both win 20)
BET 3.3pts win I’M ON MY WAY
BET 1.8pts win ABBEYHILL
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