NFL WEEK 16: We’ve reached the home stretch of the NFL’s regular season, when some teams are making a playoff push, others are joining the tank-a-thon for the No. 1 pick, and a few are stuck somewhere in the middle, out of contention for a postseason berth but not awaiting a large-scale implosion and rebuild. In my 30+ years of following the NFL, I’m not sure I remember a season when LESS has been on the line over the final three weeks… by and large, we pretty much know what the playoff field is going to be, and all that’s left are seedings and matchups.
This is especially true in the AFC, where the Chiefs, Bills, Texans, and Steelers have clinched, and the Ravens, Chargers, and Broncos will be the other three playoff teams barring some truly strange occurrences. The NFC race has a bit more intrigue at the bottom, with the Rams, Seahawks, Bucs, and Falcons among the teams jockeying for the final spots, though none of those teams are likely good enough to challenge the top of the conference.
So, we’re left with less drama than usual as the season winds to a close, which should only build anticipation for the terrific matchups we’re going to get in the playoffs. For us bettors, however, we don’t have to wait for the meaningful games to generate excitement — winning is exciting enough, and there are some interesting opportunities on this week’s slate. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -9, 46.5)
Recommendation: Cincinnati -9 at 1.97
The Browns have been relegated to the role of spoiler since midseason and they’ve been pretty good at it, beating Baltimore and Pittsburgh and giving Denver a scare. However, after three straight losses in which quarterback Jameis Winston was typically careless with the football, the Browns are sending Captain Crab Legs to the bench and replacing him with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, whose NFL career thus far has been uninspiring to say the least. Though Winston did have turnover issues, he also made plays down the field and gave the Cleveland offense a spark that was wholly absent when Deshaun Watson was under center. I’m guessing that since DTR is much younger than Winston the brain trust probably to give him the reps and development, but I’m not expecting much from a player who has 1 touchdown pass and 7 interceptions in 12 career appearances. The stout Browns D will be dealt a bad hand here once again — an ineffective offense that will leave them in tough spots against a Cincinnati attack that is putting up 28.5 points per game, the third-best mark in the AFC. This one won’t be close — bet the Bengals, and bet ’em heavy.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders (LV -2.5, 40.5)
Recommendation: Jacksonville +2.5 at 2.0
Two candidates for the No. 1 overall pick in April’s draft will meet on Sunday in Vegas, and though I certainly understand those who choose to stay away from games like this on principal, I think there’s an opportunity here. Sure, the Jags have been among the league’s most disappointing teams and their head coach Doug Pederson will likely be one of the first to the guillotine on Black Monday, but they’re still playing hard and have been putting up a fight every week, losing to the Jets in the last 2 minutes last week, beating Tennessee on the road in the game before that, and losing 23-20 to Houston in Week 13. As a matter of fact, you could make a case that the Jaguars are playing their best football of the season right now, and they’re also quite healthy compared to most teams around the league, including the Raiders, who will be without All-Pro DE Maxx Crosby for the remainder of the season and whose top 2 quarterbacks are officially listed as questionable this week, though Aidan O’Connell is expected to play. The Raiders have now lost 10 straight games and they’re steadily regressing, with 4 of their past 6 defeats coming by double-digits and three of those by 15 points or more. Jacksonville has been running the ball effectively in recent weeks and the Vegas D struggles against the run, surrendering 121.2 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry, and they should be even more vulnerable than usual without Crosby, who is their best d-lineman by a wide margin. It just feels like the Jags are primed to steal one here, though I’m not expecting many touchdowns.
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers (GB -14, 42.5)
Recommendation: Green Bay -14 at 1.91
Years of experience have taught me to mostly steer clear of double-digit favorites in the NFL, but I broke my own rule last week in backing Baltimore as a 16.5-point favorite over the lowly New York Giants, and man, that one sure did feel easy, didn’t it? So, we’re back on the horse this week with a game that feels just as obvious: the Saints limp into frigid Lambeau Field on Monday night like lambs to the slaughter, with rookie QB Spencer Rattler under center, star RB Alvin Kamara likely sidelined with a groin injury, and a defense that is banged up and leaking oil badly. The Packers, meanwhile, have won 4 of 5 and can clinch a playoff berth with a win here. Jordan Love has played well in recent weeks, throwing 7 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last four starts, and tailback Josh Jacobs, who is third in the NFL in rushing, should feast on a New Orleans defense that allows more yards per carry than every team but Carolina. It seems like the only thing that could possibly derail a Green Bay blowout win here is the weather, as there is a possibility of snow, and heavy snow can have all sorts of strange effects on the action. Barring a literal act of God, however, I like the Pack to cover this number and cover it easily.
