NFL WEEK 17: Christmas Day brought us some NFL action this year, with AFC heavyweights Kansas City and Baltimore taking care of business in road games against Pittsburgh and Houston, respectively. Neither matchup was particularly competitive and the late game, which saw Baltimore hammer Houston 31-2, was the type of ugly, non-competitive bore that makes you wonder if the league will reconsider these midweek holiday games going forward. At any rate, the results didn’t affect the playoff picture much, as all four teams have clinched berths in an AFC that had basically sorted itself out a couple of weeks ago. There’s no getting around the fact that the final few weeks of this year’s regular season have contained less drama and fewer meaningful matchups than usual, only because the standings have sorted themselves out earlier than usual. But last week was another profitable week for us, cashing two of our three bets, so, hey, I’m not complaining. And perhaps the upcoming playoffs will contain even more excitement and drama than usual — there are certainly some great potential matchups out there.
This weekend’s slate includes three Saturday games and eight on Sunday before wrapping up with a Monday night battle between the rising Lions and the fading 49ers, and all of my favorites this week happen to fall on Sunday, though I did think long and hard about Arizona +6.5 on Saturday night. Here’s what I settled on:
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -10, 45.5)
Recommendation: Buffalo -10 at 1.97
Big favorites have been paying off in recent weeks, and we rode Cincinnati and Green Bay to easy wins last week after doing to the same with a Baltimore team laying a monster number against the Giants in Week 15. I’ve zeroed in on Buffalo here as another team who should have no problem covering a large number, and this Bills team is accustomed to winning big, racking up six double-digit victories so far this season. This is a divisional matchup, of course, and the Bills struggled to put away another inferior divisional foe last week, squeaking by New England 24-21, so I expect Sean McDermott to have his team focused and prepared this week in what will likely be the final game for many of the starters before the playoffs. The Jets had actually been showing some signs of life before laying an egg in a 19-9 loss to the LA Rams last week, but the fact remains that they’ve lost 5 of 6 and 10 of 12, and with a lame duck interim coach and a roster full of players who will be somewhere else next season, it’s reasonable to question whether the fight and competitiveness will be there on a frigid day in Buffalo, particularly if things go bad early. This feels like the sort of one-sided blowout that will encapsulate the season for both teams. Don’t be afraid to lay the points.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -1.5, 48.5)
Recommendation: Minnesota moneyline (to win) at 1.89
More than any contending team in the NFC, and perhaps in the entire league, the Vikings have been questioned, doubted, and underestimated. They are now 13-2 after an impressive road win over Seattle last week and they haven’t lost a game since October. What’s more, they seem to be getting better — after a couple of midseason losses and a string of close victories they are now starting to win in dominant fashion, with a 30-12 win over Chicago in Week 15 and a 21-point blowout of Atlanta in Week 14 the most recent examples. The play of veteran QB Sam Darnold, a former first-round draft pick who was cast aside by a couple of teams before finding a home in Minnesota, has been the lead storyline, and Darnold has indeed been impressive in leading an offense that is producing 26.4 points per game, but the true key to the Vikings success lies in the play of Brian Flores’s defense. The Vikes have terrorized opposing QBs all season, blitzing at the highest rate in the league and creating chaos, with 44 sacks and an NFL-high 22 interceptions. Green Bay’s Jordan Love is a playmaker who isn’t afraid to take chances downfield, and as a result he’s been plagued by interceptions throughout his career — when these teams met at Lambeau Field in Week 4, Love’s three INTs were a big factor in Minnesota’s upset victory. The Vikings are at home this time around, they’re playing their best football, and they’re in a dogfight with Detroit for the NFC North title, so this game has a lot of meaning. I like their chances.
Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders (WAS -3.5, 46.5)
Recommendation: Atlanta +3.5 at 1.92
It’s been a bumpy ride for the Falcons this season, and benching veteran QB Kirk Cousins prior to Week 16 certainly wasn’t the way they drew it up when they signed him to a lucrative contract in the offseason. They turned to first-round rookie Michael Penix against the Giants last week, and though Penix had an up-and-down performance that included a couple of rookie mistakes, the team rallied around him in a dominant 34-7 win, and they now have everything to play for over the season’s final two weeks. This is an important game for both teams, actually — Atlanta is tied with Tampa Bay atop the NFC South at 8-7, while Washington, though two games better at 10-5, still hasn’t clinched a playoff berth and needs either a win here or a Tampa Bay loss to Carolina to do so this week. Unfortunately for the Commanders, they’ve sustained some significant injuries lately and will be without three starters this week, including star cornerback Marshon Lattimore. They’ve also struggled against the run this season, allowing more rushing yards (137.4 ypg) than all but three teams leaguewide and more yards per carry (4.8) than all but two teams. That’s bad news against Falcons RB Bijan Robinson, a tremendous talent who is having a breakthrough season with over 1,600 total yards and 11 TDs. Robinson is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and we can expect a heavy dose of him in this game, which should have the happy side effect of keeping the explosive Washington offense on the sideline. I’m expecting a very competitive game here and an Atlanta moneyline bet makes some sense, because the price is decent and the Falcons may very well win this game. But with both teams involved in so many close ones this season, those 3.5 points feel like stealing. Gimme the points.
