WILDCARD WEEKEND: It’s finally here: playoff time, win or go home, the games we’ve all been waiting for. It doesn’t get much better than Wildcard Weekend, with six compelling matchups spread over three days and every team starting anew, just three games away from the sport’s ultimate stage- Super Bowl LIX.
Here are some thoughts and predictions for all six games:
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans- Saturday 21:30 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Los Angeles -2.5 (41.5)
Two of the league’s better defenses will kick off the postseason from NRG Stadium in Houston, and the Chargers have been a popular public bet at sportsbooks around the world. That’s understandable, I suppose — the Bolts have the league’s stingiest scoring defense, allowing just 17.7 points per game, and the Houston offense has struggled mightily since losing receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to injuries. I expect the Texans to really focus on getting Joe Mixon and the running game going here, as that is the primary vulnerability of this LA defense: they’re soft against the run, surrendering 4.7 yards per carry… worst among AFC playoff teams. The Texans have a stout defense in their own right and they excel at making life difficult for opposing QBs, leading the NFL in completion percentage allowed and ranking second in interceptions. They should make like difficult for Justin Herbert. Whichever team runs the ball best will win this one. Prediction: Houston 20, Los Angeles 17
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens- Sunday 01:00 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Baltimore -9.5 (44.5)
Bitter rivals square off here and the natural inclination is to expect a tough, competitive game like we’ve seen with so many classic Steelers/Ravens battles over the years, but the fact is these teams have been headed in opposite directions lately, as the Ravens roll into the postseason having won 4 straight and 5 of 6, while the Steelers have lost 4 straight and have looked completely rudderless on offense. The offense isn’t the only problem in Pittsburgh, either — the once-feared defense hasn’t been exposed over the past month, particularly in the secondary, where they’ve allowed nearly 260 pass ypg during the team’s current 4-game skid. Lamar Jackson needs to get the postseason monkey off his back — he’s just 2-4 in his playoff career, with six interceptions — and he’s got the perfect opponent lined up this week, one he knows well. These teams met just three weeks ago in Baltimore and the Ravens walked away with a 34-17 win. I’m not sure it will be that close this time around. Prediction: Baltimore 34, Pittsburgh 13
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills- Sunday 18:00 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Buffalo -8.5 (47.5)
With apologies to the top-seeded Chiefs, Buffalo feels like the best team in the AFC to me as we enter these playoffs, so this is a really tough spot for the Broncos and their rookie quarterback, Bo Nix. Sean Payton has done a tremendous job with Nix and the Denver offense this season, but it’s still a very average unit by any measure and the Buffalo offense is anything but, with Josh Allen leading the team to an AFC-best 30.9 points per game to become the frontrunner for league MVP. Allen is a one-man gang and the post-Stefon Diggs, “everybody eats” Bills offense has been nearly impossible to stop, but the Denver defense has been excellent, ranking third in the league in points allowed and 7th in yards allowed, and I expect that unit to keep the Broncos in this game. I like the Bills to win but the Under is probably my favorite bet here. Prediction: Buffalo 23, Denver 14
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles- Sunday 21:30 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Philadelphia -5 (45.5)
This has the potential to be the best game of the weekend, though it might be the most difficult of the six games to bet due to the questions surrounding the health of both quarterbacks. Green Bay’s Jordan Love left last week’s game against Chicago with an elbow injury, the severity of which is unknown (it’s his non-throwing elbow, and he is expected to start), while Philly’s Jalen Hurts has been in concussion protocol and hasn’t played since December 22nd. Hurts will be facing a Green Bay defense that ranks 6th in the NFL in yards allowed and has been especially good against the run, surrendering fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, so it will be interesting to see whether the run-dominant Eagles offense is able to get rolling. The Eagles have a pretty darn good defense themselves — they lead the league in yards allowed — but the Packers offense has been red-hot, scoring 30 points or more in 5 of the team’s last 7 games. Prediction: Green Bay 27, Philadelphia 24
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Monday 01:00 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Tampa Bay -3 (50.5)
When these teams met in the season opener I don’t think anybody expected them to meet again in the playoffs, but here we are, and with two high-powered offenses that both average over 28 ppg, this might be the most fun game of the weekend. Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels rushed for a pair of touchdowns in a losing effort the first time these teams met, but the Bucs D has excelled at containing mobile QBs over the second half of the season and you can be sure that they’ll be locked in on Daniels as a runner. To win this game, the rookie will have to make plays with his arm. Speaking of making plays with his arm, Tampa QB Baker Mayfield has been terrific this season, ranking third in the NFL in passing yards, but it’s the Bucs rushing attack that I expect to be the real difference-maker here: led by rookie RB Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay has averaged 183.3 rushing yards over the past seven games, the second-best mark in the NFL in that span. The Washington defense, meanwhile, ranks 30th in the NFL against the run, allowing nearly 138 yards per game on the ground. Prediction: Tampa Bay 31, Washington 24
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams- Tuesday 01:00 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Minnesota -2.5 (47.5)
The Monday nighter has been moved to Arizona due to the wildfires that have ravaged Southern California, and it is there that the Rams will look to end Minnesota’s Cinderella season. The Vikings were left for dead after an injury to first-round pick J.J. McCarthy elevated journeyman Sam Darnold to starting quarterback, but Darnold has been terrific this season, ranking 5th in the NFL in passing yards and leading the Vikes to 14 wins. In this game he’ll be facing a middling Rams defense that ranks in the bottom-half of the league in nearly every significant statistical category, but that Rams D held up alright when these teams met in Week 8, limiting the Minnesota offense to just 276 total yards in a 30-20 LA win. My main concern for the Rams here is on the other side of the ball, where their offense will be facing a tremendous Vikings defense that allows fewer than 20 ppg and has been especially good up front, ranking second in the NFL in rush yards allowed and third in sacks. This will be a tough game for veteran QB Matt Stafford. Prediction: Minnesota 23, Los Angeles 21
