‘MASSIVE’ AS DAQMAN 4-1 NAP LANDS 14.0 BETDAQ GAMBLE: After a hat-trick of naps, the amazing Daqman dared pin his hopes on a sensational 14.0 shot yesterday, describing offers on BETDAQ about Oetzi (WON 4-1) as ‘massive’.
JACKPOT! FOUR NAPS IN A ROW: So confident was he of landing four in a row that he not only napped the horse but raised his stake and declared Oetzi (‘clearly laid out for the race’) as one of his special jackpot bets. Here’s his current NAPS sequence:
WON 100-30 Sunday (Cape Explorer)
WON 5-2 Monday (Havin’ A Good Time)
WON 5-1 Tuesday (Cats Eyes)
WON 4-1 Wednesday (Oetzi)
THAT MAKES 132 POINTS PROFIT IN FIVE DAYS: Since it all started with five winning bets on Saturday, Daqman has had five profitable days in a row and landed 132.18 points.
No pressure, then. Not really; or rather, nothing new. Because it’s the same pressure every day for every punter and pundit who hopes to win money at this game: the search for value.
So the only way I could fail in trying to fix you a fifth winning nap would be to fail to find the best of the offers. If I can’t find them, I shouldn’t bet.
It’s the first and most difficult law of punting: you’re not trying to find the winner; you’re trying to find the value.
Hindsight is not much use so, appropriately, the second law is: it’s not the winners you miss but the winners you back that count.
Therein lies one of the traps of having horses-to-follow: if I ignore one on the list, it will surely win; Murphy’s, or sod’s, law. But, to back it, I must check it out for value on the day.
This column bet on the last three ‘horses to follow’ to run: that was on Saturday, and two of them won. But (hello hindsight), I shouldn’t have backed Rosslyn Castle, running over the wrong trip and with the Great Voltigeur and the St Leger his targets.
So what about Duntle, who runs at Leopardstown tonight, weather willing? I put her on the list with the following comments:
Swerved the Brownstown Stakes at Fairyhouse in favour of two Group-3 entries in August, and a bold Group 1 tilt has now been placed on the agenda for the autumn.
Duntle, a David Wachman filly, powered home at Royal Ascot on the ‘wrong side’, though the Sandringham Stakes was only the fourth race of her life.
3.55 Salisbury (Sovereign Stakes) There’s no reason (except the Gosden following) why Trade Commissioner should be favourite here: only one of the 25 horses he beat in his two winning handicappers has done anything much since, and that was – and still is – an improving three-year-old.
Rockinante could be better than the bare form and Sovereign Debt has got his ground but the class horse in the race on known form is the dual soft-surface Listed winner Tullius, whose last-day third was the best recent effort of any of these at Group level, and he loves it soft, whereas the ground has gone against Mac Love and Set The Trend.
4.05 Leopardstown: This is the time set for Triple-Crown-seeking Camelot’s private gallop on the racecourse before the evening meeting in Ireland. Nap!
4.20 Newmarket: Diala was my 1,000 Guineas filly but she was soon struggling at Newmarket, and there is no firm indication – and we’re in August! – that she has trained on.
The best of the handicappers may be Dutch Supreme, who has raced valiantly, giving weight away, but there are other front-runners in the race, Halling’s Comet and I’m So Glad.
The value may lie with Eastern Sun (14.5 on BETDAQ). Third in the Craven Stakes, he returned to Group 3 in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot but made no show, though then ran well enough with the ground against him at Newmarket.
4.30 Salisbury: Full Shilling will appreciate the rain-softened ground and has James Doyle back on board, as though trainer John Spearing means business. Doyle is 3-3 on the filly. The weakness in the bet is stable form but it’s a bad race.
7.25 Leopardstown (Desmond Stakes) If I could go back to my après-Ascot horses-to-follow list I would not, with hindsight, have included Duntle.
She looked good at the time but the 16 horses behind her in the Sandringham handicap have all failed since, apart from the one or two that haven’t even run.
Duntle’s rival in the market as I write, Takar, will enjoy the ground and is on the upgrade but, if you could be sure he was at his best, the bet is Penitent (5.8 as I write), who had Famous Name behind when he won the Sandown Mile in the Spring. His travelling over suggests stable confidence in his well-being.
VERDICT: It’s like hunting a needle in a haystack today but, in the belief that the Gosden runner is making a price for him, I will nap Tullius (3.55 Salisbury), in a race Andrew Balding likes to win (Passing Glance 2003) and Side Glance (2011), and in which three-year-olds have only a modest record (2-10).
Quote of the week (century?): ‘The Olympics showed that this isn’t a nation of n’er-do-wells’ – Boris Johnson. To those ‘heroes’ of the Games, and the famous volunteers, I would add the hundreds of lads who ‘do’ their three or four horses every morning in the stables of this country.
I nearly wrote ‘do their two’. That’s what we used to say in the good old bad old days. Sign of the times? You bet. Get on it, Boris!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 7.5pts win (nap) TULLIUS (3.55 Salisbury)
BET 1.5pts win and place EASTERN SUN (4.20 Newmarket)
BET 9pts win FULL SHILLING (4.30 Salisbury)
BET 4pts win PENITENT (7.25 Leopardstown)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
