A cursory look at the last 10 renewals of today’s Ebor Handicap tells you that you are looking for a horse towards the bottom end of the weights. Seven of the last 10 renewals have been won by horses who carried 8st 12lb or less.
That narrows it down. Just six of the 20 runners fall into that weight category, so the easy thing to do is split your stakes, back all six, then check your account at 3.50pm and withdraw your money.
Two difficulties with that. Firstly, the market seems to have followed the bottom-of-the-handicap theory. Two of the six at the bottom of the weights – Motivado and Qahriman – are clear at the top of the market, and two more, Number Theory and Harrison’s Cave, are sixth and seventh in.
The other problem with the low-weights theory is that the shape of the Ebor has evolved over the last 10 years, with the number of high-rated horses taking their chance in the race increasing with every passing year. In the 2002 renewal, just three horses rated 100 or more ran in the race, and the bottom weight was rated 83. Last year, 14 of the 20 runners were rated 100 or more, and the bottom weight was rated 98.
Taking ratings as a guide provides an interesting insight. Last year, the first four home were rated between 99 and 103, and three of them were rated between 99 and 101. In 2010, the first four home were rated 100, 97, 101 and 105 respectively. In 2009, the first four home were rated 94, 107, 101 and 93. (The horse who was rated 107 was the three-year-old Changingoftheguard, so he only carried 9st because of his weight-for-age allowance.) In 2008, in the substitute race run at Newbury, the first four home were rated 100, 93, 110 and 94. In 2007, they were rated 101, 111 (another three-year-old), 104 and 93. In 2006, the first four home were rated 88, 98, 100 and 108.
So, of the 24 places available in the race in the last six renewals, 16 were filled by horses rated 99 or higher, and nine of them were filled by horses who were rated in the small window between 99 and 101 inclusive. As a proportion of the 22 places that were filled by older horses (and no three-year-old has managed to get into the race this year for the third year in a row), that’s a return of 41%, and that’s not bad.
Conclusion? Look carefully at the horses rated between 99 and 101 in the race. Bizarrely and unfortunately, nine of the 20 runners, in a race that spans 13lb from top weight to bottom weight, are rated in that tiny 3lb window – there were just six horses in that band last year, and three of them finished in the first four – but that doesn’t mean that it is not the most important ratings bracket in the race.
Also, don’t be duped into thinking that you need to back a horse at the bottom of the weights. If you fancy a horse that has a high weight, don’t be dissuaded from backing him because of the cursory stat that tells you that seven of the last 10 renewals of the race were won by horses with 8st 12lb or less on their backs.
You do need a horse who has the potential to be a fair bit better than the mark off which he will race, mind you, and two of the low-weights, first and second favourites Motivado and Qahriman, fall into that category.
Motivado could blow this race apart. He danced in at Goodwood last time and, even under his 4lb penalty, he is 6lb well-in as a result. However, he is inconsistent, he is fashionable and very short and, importantly, he has disappointed on his two runs at the track, both over today’s distance. York is one of those tracks at which proven course form is important, and you have to think twice before you back a horse who is not only unproven there, but who has disappointed there like Motivado has. He may well win, but if he does it will be a losing race for me.
I had figured without Qahriman in calculations. He was first reserve, and first reserves rarely get into British races. But Qahriman did, because of the defection of Harlestone Times yesterday, and he is a player, no question.
He is lightly-raced, he is progressive and, importantly, his last win was over today’s course and distance. That was probably the best run of his life by a fair way, and it was on easy ground, which will probably prevail with rain forecast. The handicapper raised him 6lb for that win, which wasn’t harsh, he has the potential to go a fair bit higher than that, and the risk that Luca Cumani took in not running him again between then and now, in not trying to raise his handicap mark further in order to guarantee him a run in the race, has paid off by the skin of his teeth. Bottom weight, number 20 of 20, perfect.
Cumani is a demon with these big handicaps, and he has won the Ebor twice in the last 10 years from just five attempts. You can be sure that this has been Qahriman’s target at least since June, and he is interesting, even at around 7.5.
Hammerfest is also interesting, the John Hammond-trained raider who is 6lb better off with Camborne for a two-length beating in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot, who will be well suited by the extra two furlongs and by the easy ground, and with the excellent Jim Crowley booked. Sense Of Purpose is also interesting, hailing from the Dermot Weld yard that is two for two at this meeting so far, who finished second in the Galtres Stakes in 2010 on her only run at the track, who will have impressive apprentice Leigh Roche for company and who shaped with a lot of promise on her most recent run at Roscommon on soft ground under a big weight.
Willing Foe is also interesting. It was a little disappointing that the Godolphin horse couldn’t win the handicap that he contested at Ascot last month, but he still shaped encouragingly on what was his seasonal debut, and his rider wasn’t hard on him once his winning chance had gone.
He is a five-year-old, but he is a really lightly-raced five-year-old, he has lots of scope for progression, and he is only 3lb higher than he was when he finished a good second to Zuider Zee in the November Handicap at Doncaster on soft ground at the back end of last season.
By stamina influence Dynaformer and a full brother to Ribblesdale Stakes winner Michita, he should improve for the step up to a mile and six furlongs. Saeed Bin Suroor’s horses are in really good form these days, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Willing Foe run a big race at a decent price.
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