ST JUDE: The PGA Tour has spent one sweltering week each year in Memphis, Tennessee since the 1950s, but it wasn’t until recently that they figured out how to get the best players to show up. After all, this is the event that Tiger famously never played in his career, and he wasn’t the only big name to routinely skip this one.
This week, however, the only marquee name missing is one Rory McIlroy, World No. 2, who decided that another week of rest would be the best thing for his game as he prepares for the Playoffs Ryder Cup. As for the rest of them, including top dog Scottie Scheffler, they’ll be sweating it out at TPC Southwind, where the air is still and the heat index is expected to approach 100 degrees this weekend. So, what changed? It’s no mystery: a $20 million purse, with some $3.6 million going to the winner, will get a lot of guys to show up. The field this week is limited to the top 70 in the final FedEx Cup standings, with the number shrinking to 50 for next week’s BMW Championship and 30 for the season-ending Tour Championship.
The course is a familiar one: TPC Southwind has played host to this event for the past 36 years and has changed very little in that time. A par-70 that measures a shade over 7,200 yards, it doesn’t kill the players with length, but with tight fairways, sticky Bermuda rough, small greens and water hazards in play on more than half of the holes, it’s no pushover. Rain and soft conditions can make the course a bit friendlier, but it looks like the players won’t be seeing much of that this week. Southwind has a few clear birdie opportunities– the par-5 16th comes to mind, as well as the par-5 3rd– but for the most part it’s a grind out there, with numerous doglegs that force the players to put the ball in approximately the same spot off the tee and approach the small, firm greens with mid-irons. It’s a good test that produces a worthy champion every year– there’s no “faking it” around TPC Southwind.
The market this week looks just about like you’d expect: it’s Scheffler (4.6), and then everyone else. Southwind is a ball-striker’s layout and it’s difficult to imagine anyone matching Scottie iron shot for iron shot, though another ball-striking machine, Hideki Matsuyama, was able to get the job done last year. One other thing to consider here is the fact that Southwind almost always produces tight, white-knuckle finishes, with 3 of the past 4 editions of this tournament going to a playoff. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Viktor Hovland (28.0)- Though he endured a disappointing weekend at Portrush, Hovland has played quite well over the last couple of months, with highlights that include a 3rd-place finish at the U.S. Open and a T11 at the Scottish Open. His only victory so far this year came at the Valspar, where he mastered a Bermuda-covered course that shares a lot of similarities with TPC Southwind, and that’s not the only reason to like his chances this week: his record at this tournament has been tremendous, with three top-20 finishes in five career appearances, including a runner-up last year. Southwind caters to ball-strikers and there aren’t many players in the world who can match Hovland’s tee-to-green chops, as he currently ranks 2nd on Tour in strokes gained on approach. He’s a good bet this week at nearly 30/1.
Daniel Berger (50.0)- Berger has been solid but unspectacular this summer, making every cut since the Memorial but never seriously contending, with his T30 at the Open last time out his best finish since May. Earlier in the season, however, he had a couple of close calls, finishing runner-up in Phoenix at T3 at the RBC Heritage, and he has four PGA Tour wins to his credit, so he knows how to get the job done when around the lead on Sunday. And, well, considering two of those four victories have come at this very tournament, I think it’s safe to say that he knows what it takes to win at TPC Southwind specifically. It’s been eight years since his last triumph here, but he did finish runner-up and T5 in his past two appearances, so I don’t think any of the Southwind magic has worn off. Berger is my favorite bet on the board this week at a price like 50.0.
Chris Kirk (110.0)- After a rough start to the season Kirk has found his form in recent weeks, recording three top-15 finishes in his past five starts, including a runner-up at the Rocket Classic (where he lost in a playoff) and a T5 at the Wyndham last week. His ball-striking stats have been excellent lately, particularly from 125-225 yards, and though he’s a bit streaky with the putter, he generally does his best work on Bermuda greens like those he’ll see this week. He’s got a good record at this tournament that includes two finishes of 16th or better across his past four appearances, including a T6 in 2018, and he should come into this week with plenty of confidence based on his top-5 finish last week and his experience at Southwind. As longshots go, he’s a live one, and the price is right.
