NFL WEEK 1: The NFL has the longest offseason of any professional sport, at least any that I’m aware of, which makes the beginning of each season extra sweet. And given the way the league is structured, with a strictly enforced salary cap and salary “floor” for each team designed to achieve a degree of parity for maximum competitiveness, hope abounds for every team and every fan this time of year. Even, I’m told, if you’re rolling out Spencer Rattler as your starting QB.
It’s an exciting time of year for those of us who like to have an occasional (ahem, quit smiling) bet on the action as well. Yes, there are lots of ways to enjoy these games and many markets to explore, and hopefully this column can provide a helpful perspective as we navigate another season together. And who am I kidding… I bet these games myself, so hopefully the “helpful perspective” will come in the form of a bunch of winning picks. That being said, here’s what I like for Week 1, a week where we can always expect some surprises:
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -1, 46.5)
Recommendation: Indianapolis moneyline (to win) at 1.89
Colts head coach Shane Steichen has made the bold decision to bench young QB Anothony Richardson in favor of the newly signed Daniel Jones, who washed out after six frustrating years with the Giants. Jones may not have been the man to lead New York to the promised land, but he matured and improved in his last couple of seasons there and I think a change of scenery will serve him well. Indy has an elite tailback in Jonathan Taylor and a talented group of receivers, in addition to explosive rookie Tyler Warren at tight end, so Jones will be surrounded by quality weapons and will face less pressure and dysfunction than he had as the failed savior of the Giants. He’ll be up against a Dolphins defense that lost several key contributors in the offseason, while the Miami offense, though explosive, was maddeningly inconsistent last year amidst speculation that Tua hasn’t been the same player since his series of concussions. This feels like a sneaky tough spot for the Fins, going on the road to face a Colts team that may be better than most think.
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints (ARI -6, 43.5)
Recommendation: Arizona -6 at 1.91
The Saints made wholesale changes in the offseason, hiring Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore as their new head coach in the hopes that he can return them to the Sean Payton days, when an innovative, high-octane offense made the team both entertaining and formidable. They are neither of those things nowadays, and there’s little hope for a quick turnaround after a quiet offseason that had folks openly speculating about whether ownership was attempting to tank the season for a top draft pick and the chance to draft local royalty Arch Manning next April. We can speculate all we want about the long term plan in New Orleans, but the immediate reality is this: they’re starting the unheralded and inaccurate Spencer Rattler at quarterback; he’s flanked by the fossilized Alvin Kamara in the backfield and surrounded by a receiving corps that made no significant upgrades in the offseason and has only Chris Olave to worry opposing defenses. The Cardinals, meanwhile, should have a very effective offense as long as main pieces Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, and James Conner stay healthy, and I expect them to start fast against a Saints D that surrendered more yardage than all but two teams leaguewide last season. An emphatic Arizona win will mark the beginning of a long season in the Big Easy.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (CIN -5, 48)
Recommendation: Cleveland +5 at 1.94
Expectations are quite different for these two teams this season, as many have picked Cincinnati to win the AFC North and potentially contend for the Super Bowl while Cleveland is roundly expected to finish last in the division. This might be a tricky spot for the Bengals, however — on the road against a division rival, and one that might a little better than people think, at least to start the season. Yes, the Browns have been embroiled in a quarterback circus of their own making since drafting two of them in April, but the dust has now settled and veteran Joe Flacco, who still has some gas left in the tank, is at the controls. Flacco will be facing a Cincy defense that was one of the worst in the league last season by any measure, while his counterpart, Bengals QB Joe Burrow, will have to contend with a tough Browns defense that features one of the NFL’s great pass rushers in Myles Garrett, who has registered a stunning 10 sacks in 8 career games againsr Burrow. Also, let’s not forget Cincinnati’s early-season struggles under Zac Taylor: 1-11 in the first two weeks of the season since Taylor took over as head coach in 2019. Gimme the home ‘dog here.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (MIN -1, 43.5) *MONDAY NIGHT*
Recommendation: Chicago +1 at 1.91
The season’s first Monday nighter is a classic NFC North showdown between two teams with top-end talent and much to prove. Can the Vikings replicate last year’s success under Sam Darnold, who has now moved on to Seattle? J.J. McCarthy may be a promising young quarterback, but he’s effectively a rookie after missing all of last season due to injury and he’ll be thrown right in the fire here in a primetime spot against a Chicago defense that was tough on opposing passers last season, reaching the 40-sack mark and surrendering just 217 yards per game through the air. The Minnesota secondary, meanwhile, was among the worst in the league in 2024, ranking 28th in pass yards allowed. New Bears coach Ben Johnson certainly knows how to attack these Vikings after the time he spent calling plays in Detroit, and his young QB Caleb Williams is surrounded by elite skill-position talent, so the offense has definite potential. Assuming Williams protects the ball, I expect the Bears to take a big step forward this season, and I think it’s going to start with a victory over these Vikings on Monday night.
