NFL WEEK 2: We’re off and running with another NFL season and Week 1 went pretty much as planned, as we hit all three of our Sunday bets before finding ourselves on the wrong side of Chicago’s Monday night collapse. Week 2 kicked off with the Packers putting on a Thursday night clinic in front of a packed house at Lambeau Field, easily taking care of the Commanders in a game that wasn’t as close as the 27-18 final score would indicate. Though it’s early and there are sure to be some unexpected twists and turns ahead, Green Bay has the look of a Super Bowl contender, with the addition of Micah Parsons making an already good defense downright scary.
This week’s slate features several compelling matchups, with the headliner being a Super Bowl rematch between Philadelphia and Kansas City in Arrowhead Stadium. While we didn’t include that one in our Best Bets below, I do think it’s going to be difficult for Philly to get the job done in such a hostile environment against a highly motivated Chiefs team. However, I have a bit more confidence in these four:
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -3.5, 49.5)
Recommendation: Jacksonville +3.5 at 1.91
This is one of those dangerous early-season lines where general consensus around preseason expectations totally overrides what we actually saw on the field from both teams last week. Look, I get it: the Jags are a traditional sad sack bottom-feeder, while the Bengals have All-Pro talent on the offensive side of the ball and were expected to be among the best teams in the AFC this season. However, we must remember that the Cincinnati defense was atrociously bad last season and the team did little to shore up that side of the ball in the offseason, which is why 40-year-old Joe Flacco was able to slice them up to the tune of 290 yards last week. Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, meanwhile, looked very comfortable in new coach Liam Coen’s scheme as the Jags pounded the Panthers 26-10 to kick off their season. There’s no reason to expect the Cincinnati D to have any more success slowing down the Jags than the Panthers did, which means Joe Burrow and the offense will have to find a rhythm and play much better than they did in Cleveland. That may happen, but slow starts have become the norm with Burrow and the Bengals, and the Jacksonville team that they’ll be seeing on Sunday had a crisp and confident look last week. I have a hunch the Jags might win this one outright, but that’s not going to stop me from taking those 3.5 points.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (DET -6, 46.5)
Recommendation: Detroit -6 at 1.91
Both of these teams are coming off disappointing Week 1 performances, with the Lions getting easily outclassed by Green Bay in a game where their offense was uncharacteristically stagnant while the Bears utterly collapsed in the second half of a Monday night showdown against division rival Minnesota. The big storyline here involves new Chicago coach Ben Johnson, who returns to Detroit after spending the past several years as the Lions offensive coordinator, where he built and developed one of the league’s most explosive attacks. I’m not sure whether it was the absence of Johnson’s playcalling or typical early-season inconsistency, but the Lions offense was all out of sorts last week, and I expect a focused, sharp effort from that group in this game, as the Chicago defense should have difficulty matching up with Detroit’s talent on the perimeter. But it’s the Bears offense that is the bigger concern and the primary reason why I like Detroit here. After a full offseason under Ben Johnson’s tutelage in this system that we’ve seen work so well for Jared Goff, Caleb Williams was the same uncertain, inaccurate quarterback last week that we saw throughout his rookie season. The Chicago offense, despite having some serious skill-position talent, will only go as far as Williams can take them, and it’s clear to me after watching last week’s performance that the unit still has a long way to go. Look for Detroit to return to form with an easy win here.
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts (DEN -1.5, 43.5)
Recommendation: Indianapolis moneyline (to win) at 2.02
I’m a bit surprised that Denver is favored in this spot given what we saw from the Colts last week, a 33-8 demolition of Miami in which new QB Daniel Jones exploded for 298 total yards and three touchdowns, two of them rushing. Indy has a big-time back in Jonathan Taylor, underrated talent on the perimeter, and a difference-making rookie tight end in first-round draft pick Tyler Warren, so if Jones can continue to play like he did last week, with decisiveness and accuracy, the Colts will be a legit contender in the AFC. This will be a good measuring stick against a tough Broncos defense, though I don’t think the Colts will have to put up 30+ points again to be successful in this game, because the Denver offense isn’t scaring anybody. Despite surviving the Titans last week in a closer-than-expected game, the Broncos were spotty on the offensive side of the ball, with Bo Nix throwing for just 176 yards on 40 attempts and getting intercepted twice while the new-look rushing attack struggled to get anything going until RJ Harvey broke a long one in the 4th quarter. Like the Bengals/Jaguars game, I feel the line here is heavily influenced by preseason expectations as opposed to what we saw in Week 1, and I’m not buying it. The wrong team is favored.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -3, 44.5)
Recommendation: Atlanta +3 at 1.94
Though Atlanta dropped a heartbreaker to Tampa Bay in Week 1, there was a lot to like about the performance: young QB Michael Penix threw for 298 yards, Bijan Robinson reminded the world what he’s capable of with a fantastic long touchdown off a screen pass, and the defense held an explosive Bucs offense in check for most of the game, limiting them to 260 total yards and just 4.8 yards per pass attempt. Given what we saw out of Minnesota’s offense last week, with rookie QB J.J. McCarthy appearing to be way in over his head before making a couple of plays late in the game, the Falcons D should be able to put together another strong performance and really make things difficult for McCarthy and the Vikes. Of course, the Vikings have a solid defense themselves, and much of this game will depend on how Penix handles the many looks and pressures that Brian Flores will throw at him. Based on what we’ve seen out of him so far, I like his chances to outplay his counterpart in this game and lead the Falcons to an upset victory.
