DAQMAN LANDS ‘DREAM’ JACKPOT: Daqman finished in front on the day yesterday when he landed a 40-point jackpot bet with Dream Ahead (WON 7-1), a 10-point lay with Manassas (19th of 20 at 13-2 favourite) and an each-way bet on Mon Cadeaux (2nd 16-1).
YOUR BEST BET IS THE BETDAQ MARKET: Today his column looks at the Betdaq market, examining yesterday’s trading and getting a position on this afternoon’s cards. So lay back and win with Betdaq.
Follow the markets and discover the value on Betdaq. If you are new to the exchange, I recommend you spend a day plotting prices, comparing the bookmakers’ fixed odds with Daq offers.
Go through the form and price up the races, which means deciding roughly what odds you want. You are going to compare your requirements with what’s on offer, all through the day, sometimes during the race itself.
First shock: before about 10 a.m., particularly on weekdays, there is only exchange betting: cowardly, lie-abed bookies are waiting to see how the Daq market settles down before committing themselves. Now’s your chance.
Take an early-bird Betdaq position on a race, where you find offers that are well above what you expected when you did your pricing-up. Rather like you did ante-post in the old days.
The first difference is that you are looking at runners not possibles. The main difference is that you can come back and trade off your bet or back other horses through the day.
Let’s look at the market development of some of the horses I tipped yesterday. Plot today’s and tomorrow’s fancies in the same way. Take an early position (i.e. have a bet at value), then stake as follows: if your horse shortens, back another horse that remains at value (i.e. a price you wanted, or better); if it shortens dramatically, lay it so that your original bet to win becomes a ‘free bet.’
Here are some of my personal decisions, mainly between 12 noon and 1p.m., or just before the races yesterday, based on market events during the morning and in the closing exchanges.
York: First position, Rain Delayed (2.05), was 14.5 on Betdaq when selected and continued easy to back at 15.0, though only 12-1 with bookmakers.
Market verdict: back another bookies’ closer that’s still big on Betdaq. Race verdict: Rain Delayed (unplaced 11-1) needs further.
In the 2.40, I took the 21.0 Total Command but it remained easy to back for a Stoute runner. I said in my column I found it hard to choose between Tactician and Total Command.
Market verdict: Tactician was being backed with bookmakers, 7-1 in a place, but was 10.0 in exchange betting. Race verdict: Tactician won 17-2 for a brilliant tactical ride by Eddie Ahern.
In the 3.55, we at last got some overs: Quite Sparky, which had been taken at 8.6 on Betdaq, touched 5-1. I warned that four of the five previous winners of the race had come from stalls 2 and 3. Norman Orpen won at 14-1 from stall 3.
Market verdict: Spend the Quite Sparky overs on something else. Race verdict: take Barren Brook out of the race for the Ebor meeting.
Newmarket: Market verdict: we were on an early lay, Manassas, and he drifted. We didn’t worry when he was backed late on; he’d gone out to a value price so you could expect him to be backed.
Race verdict: Manassas was 19th of 20. The winner, Brae Hill, raced alone on the stands-side rail from stall 2 and jockeys were sure to use that side for the next two races.
So that’s where I want my money in the 3.35 Newmarket: in fact, we already have Dream Ahead (stall 2) at 9.8. Our other interest is Oracle, now seemingly badly drawn. Market verdict: go in again at 9.6 on Dream Ahead. Race verdict: seamless victory for Hayley Turner on Dream Ahead (won 7-1).
Chester: By noon, my 17.5 take, Mon Cadeaux, averaging 16-1 with bookmakers, was 27.0 on Betdaq. Market verdict: I decided to go in again, each way. Race verdict: Mon Cadeaux second 16-1.
Today’s starting positions: Today’s racing is very poor but a good opportunity, then, to practice getting a position to small stakes and then trying to manipulate the market later: upping your stake, backing another, laying off, whatever.
Southwell: They’re claiming off Ajzal and Streedagh Lady (2.20) and I would like to get an early position on Paul Moloney’s mount, Misamon, at almost 3-1 (3.95); I think he’ll start around 15-8, under a strong jockey and as last year’s winner of the race
I don’t think the 5.7 Princely Hero (in the 3.20) will still be around after Misamon wins the opener! Princely Hero beat Misamon last time out and a franking of the form would see his odds reduce. Best get on early and hope that happens: then I can also back something like Ginger’s Lad at bigger than expected when Princely Hero shortens up.
Same again: Hi Tide (4.20) has an obvious chance and offers of 3.8 are about right but, earlier on, McCoy has odds-on shouts Chesapeake (2.50) and Cygnet (3.50): if one of those wins, Hi Tide will be shorter; if both win, he will be very short, if only for the roll-on effect of doubles and trebles. Take some Hi Tide now.
Perth: Gordon Elliott has a hatful of raiders here. If he makes a good start, they’ll shorten up. The 4.10 is virtually an all-Ireland affair, with Stuart Crawford sending Now This Is It to add to Elliott’s trio in the same race.
Now This Is It was 3-3 at Perth until dropped back to the minimum but he’s only a pound in front of Fool’s Wild Cat on the ratings, yet 1.71 to Wildcat’s 3.5 in offers this morning, and Elliott’s second string, Cottage Oak, looks ideal for a small field; he bossed one over the trip on a sound surface at Down Royal. He’s 6.8.
If you examine those Perth wins of Now This Is It, none was over fences and, if you examine Crawford’s Perth record, he’s only 8% with chasers compared to Elliott’s 30% success rate. In fact, Now This Is It has won only one chase, and that under Tony McCoy; he tends to score where other jockeys fail.
Fool’s Wildcat is easy to back because he hasn’t scored over the trip and all his success has come on a softer surface, so I prefer Cottage Oak; only if it rains, and the going alters will I change my mind.
Stratford: Rajnagan (3.00) at 15-8 favourite; not on your Nelly! The paper forecast is plain wrong, if only on a line through Rampant Ronnie, 17lb behind Brunston at Hereford but little more than 3lb behind Rajnagan at Newton Abbot.
All things being equal (and it’s surprising how often form works out to the nearest pound), Brunston should win six lengths; in fact, I’d be more worried about Domino Dancer (whose jockey, Richard Johnston, rode Rampant Ronnie against Rajnagan).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.7pts win MISAMON (2.20 Southwell)
LAY to win 10pts RAJNAGAN, and BET 9pts win BRUNSTON and 3.5pts win DOMINO DANCER (3.00 Stratford)
BET 4.2pts win PRINCELY HERO (3.20 Southwell)
BET 3.4pts win and place COTTAGE OAK (4.10 Perth)
BET 7pts win HI TIDE (4.20 Southwell)
