NFL WEEK 12: This week kicked off with a Thursday night surprise, as Davis Mills, a backup quarterback filling in for an injured C.J. Stroud, led the Houston Texas to a gritty 23-19 victory over AFC heavyweight Buffalo. The win moves to the Texans to 6-5, right back in the thick of the playoff race despite a disappointing start to the season, while the Bills fell to 7-4 and are now a full 2 games behind New England in the AFC East, a division they have dominated for the last half-decade.
There are several intriguing matchups on this Week 12 slate, but the highlight has to be the battle of AFC powers at Arrowhead Stadium, with the 8-2 Colts coming to town as 3-point ‘dogs against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. I do have a slight lean towards Indianapolis in that one, but I feel more strongly about these three:
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (GB -6, 41.5)
Recommendation: Green Bay -6 at 1.89
This is a critical game for a Minnesota team that has fallen to 4-6 after losses in 4 of their last 5 outings, but no amount of “rally the troops” energy can overcome a deficiency at the sport’s most important position, and that is exactly what the Vikings are dealing with. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy is essentially a rookie after missing all of last season due to injury, and boy, does he play like it. Under McCarthy the passing game is inconsistent and downright hard to watch at times, which has led to some ugly moments on the sidelines in recent weeks involving star receiver Justin Jefferson, whose frustration with his young QB has started to boil over. But the Vikings are committed to developing the 2024 top-10 pick, and the so the team must rely on their effective 1-2 punch at running back and an aggressive, attacking defense to stay competitive. Against this Green Bay team in Lambeau Field, though, I just don’t think it’s going to be enough. The Pack picked up a key road win in New York last week to move to 6-3-1 and QB Jordan Love has been very effective in leading one of the NFC’s better offenses, throwing for 15 TDs and just 3 INTs thus far. And I don’t think the 6-point number here is much of a concern, as all but one of Green Bay’s wins have come by 7 points or more. Gimme the Packers.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Arizona Cardinals (JAX -2.5, 47.5)
Recommendation: Arizona +2.5 at 1.95
Though the addition of Jakobi Meyers has helped and the offense will be getting tight end Brenton Strange back this week, the Jags are still really beat up on both sides of the ball, with defensive end Travon Walker the latest to be deemed officially out for Sunday, joining starters like receiver Brian Thomas Jr., right tackle Anton Harrison, and cornerback Jourdan Lewis on the sidelines. After a feel-good stomping of the Chargers last week, Jacksonville now heads west to face an Arizona team that has lost 7 of 8 and is starting a backup quarterback. What could go wrong, right? Well, if you scratch a bit below the surface, you realize that Arizona’s backup QB, Jacoby Brissett, is playing better than Jacksonville’s franchise guy, Trevor Lawrence, and the Arizona offense has been effective lately, scoring 22 points or more in five straight. Plus, the strength of that offense right now is the Brissett-to-Trey McBride connection, as the All-Pro tight end leads the NFL in receptions and yards from the position, a position (tight end) that the Jacksonville defense has had a really difficult time with this season (and historically). This could be a 10-catch, 100-yard type of game for McBride, and there’s no reason to think a Jags defense that ranks 26th in pass yards allowed will be able to disrupt this Cardinals offense. So, do you trust Trevor Lawrence, his depleted supporting cast and suspect offensive line in a spot like this? I sure don’t.
Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders (LV -3.5, 35.5)
Recommendation: Las Vegas -3.5 at 1.91
Shedeur Sanders makes his first career start in just about the friendliest possible circumstance, as he leads his Browns offense against a hapless Vegas defense that allows 25.3 points per game, ranking 24th in the league in that all-important stat. Of course, the Raiders do have one of the NFL’s best pass rushers in DE Maxx Crosby, and one of Shedeur’s most evident faults as a young player has been holding the ball for too long and retreating from the pocket backwards. Something tells me Crosby will be in his lap all game long, and given what we saw out of Sanders last week, when he went 4/16 with an interception after stepping in for starter Dillon Gabriel, I don’t have a whole lot of faith in him turning around the moribund Cleveland passing attack, even against a team like the Raiders. The Browns do have an excellent defense, and when you see a total like 35.5, you know what to expect here: this is going to be an ugly low-scoring game that will probably feature more turnovers than touchdowns. The Raiders do have a slight but clear edge on the offensive side of the ball, however, with difference-makers like Brock Bowers and young Ashton Jeanty, plus a veteran QB in Smith who has already thrown for over 2,000 yards this season, while Cleveland counters with youth and inexperience. I predict a bumpy road for young Sanders here and a victory for a Vegas team that needs one badly.
