NFL WEEK 16: With only three weeks remaining in the regular season, we’re officially down to crunch time for those in the playoff race. In some cases, the postseason has essentially already started, as one more loss would effectively end the season for teams like Baltimore, Indianapolis, Dallas, and Detroit. For other teams, it’s all about the race for the 1-seed and the coveted first-round bye. And for that sizable contingent of teams who have already been eliminated from postseason consideration, all that’s left is staying healthy, collecting checks, and planning the January trip to Cabo.
The different motivations and (let’s just call it like it is) effort levels of various teams can make this time of year a bit tricky for bettors, so if you don’t have a specific angle you like with some of these lesser games, I’d stick to the matchups of teams who need to win and can be relied upon to put their best foot forward. With that in mind, here’s what I’ve got for this week:
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns (BUF -10.5, 41)
Recommendation: Buffalo -10.5 at 1.91
After a crucial come-from-behind win over New England last week that pulled Buffalo to within a game of the Pats in the AFC East, the Bills now find themselves one win away from clinching a playoff berth, with homefield advantage for one round or more still very much in play. So, they need a victory as they head to Cleveland this week to face a terrible Browns team that seemed to let go of the rope last week in a 31-3 loss to Chicago. This game is an obvious mismatch, but the Cleveland defense has played great for most of the season and there are some excellent players on that unit, led by DPOY frontrunner Myles Garrett, and when you see a total as low as 41, you know the bookmakers are expecting an ugly slugfest… the type of game where 10.5 points is an awfully big number to lay. Even if the Browns D hold up its end of the bargain here, however, it seems likely that Browns rookie QB Shedeur Sanders will continue to make destructive mistakes — turnovers and bad sacks. Sanders isn’t surrounded by much in the way of explosive perimeter talent, and it looks like he’s getting progressively more uncomfortable in the pocket as defenses tee off on him. Josh Allen, meanwhile, has thrown 3 TDs and zero INTs in each of his last two games and is playing like the league MVP these past few weeks. In a game the Bills have to win, I can’t envision them letting this Cleveland team hang around.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos (DEN -3, 47)
Recommendation: Jacksonville +3 at 1.98
The Broncos have won 11 straight games and are undefeated at home this season. Why, then, are they only 3-point home favorites over the Jags? It’s all about matchups: Jacksonville’s biggest weakness is the defensive secondary, especially the safety position. They have been vulnerable to the big play all season and teams that thrive on downfield passing have feasted on this Jags defense. That said, it’s a unit that stops the run and pursues the ball well, with an active, ball-hawking linebacking corps. Well, the Bo Nix-led Denver offense may be efficient and (mostly) effective, ranking 12th in the league in yards per game, but one thing Nix does not do very well, or very often, is throw the ball downfield: he ranks near the bottom of the NFL in air yards per attempt. Therefore, I think this game is going to be a real slog for the Denver offense, much like what we saw in the 18-15 win over Houston back in Week 9, when the Broncos finished the game with just 271 total yards. On the other side of the ball, the dominant Denver defense will look to smother a Jacksonville offense that is playing its best football of the season, with Trevor Lawrence enjoying what could be the best stretch of his career since Jakobi Meyers joined the team. If star Broncos CB Pat Surtain shadows Meyers, which is expected, then I expect Lawrence to take several shots downfield to deep threat Brian Thomas Jr., who may be in line for a monster game. If the Jags can hit on a couple of big plays, I think they stay right in this thing and could even pull off the upset. The 3-point number might be a major factor in what should be a tight, low-scoring affair.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions (DET -7, 52)
Recommendation: Detroit -7 at 1.91
This is a huge game for both teams, but especially for the Lions, a team that many picked to win this NFC this season but is now fighting to stay in the playoff mix. It’s been a disappointing season so far for Detroit, there’s no doubt about it, but nobody can blame the offense, as the Jared Goff-led unit leads the NFL in scoring at 30.6 ppg. This game should be a perfect setup for Goff and his receiving corps: the Pittsburgh secondary is among the NFL’s worst, ranking 27th in passing defense, and this week the Steelers will be missing CB James Pierre and, more importantly, top pass rusher T.J. Watt. It’s difficult to imagine them providing any significant resistance against this Detroit offense, and the Steelers simply don’t have the kind of explosive offense that is built to win shootouts. As a matter of fact, while Detroit averages over 30 points per game, Pittsburgh has only reached the 30-point mark in 3 of 14 games, and one of those was a loss. Aaron Rodgers has become a dink-and-dunk master at this stage of his career, and while he’s mostly played clean football and has done an adequate job of guiding to an 8-6 record, he no longer has the physical abilities of someone like Goff and doesn’t have the weaponry on the perimeter to throw it all over the lot even if he was capable. Offensively, this matchup is a Ferrari vs. a Honda Civic. The Steelers may hang around for awhile, but the Lions will pull away and win this one by double-digits.
