SERIE A MONDAY: The Ultra previews JUVENTUS v CREMONESE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
JUVENTUS V CREMONESE
7.45pm European Monday Night Football comes from Serie A this week on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Juventus host Cremonese, and if they want Champions League football then we can call this a must win game for the home side as they battle for a top four spot. Plenty of Serie A fans would have included Cremonese in the relegation battle this season, but in fairness to them they have grinded out a tonne of results this season. There are some major red flags in their under-lining numbers, but they come into this matchday with a very nice nine point cushion on the bottom three.
When you look at the under-lining numbers, they paint a different picture for both sides. Juventus are six points behind Inter Milan at the top of the table, with Inter Milan having a game in hand. I know Inter have to play Napoli on Sunday, but it’s very hard to see Juventus getting involved in the title race. They should be, because they have the second best attacking figure in Serie A – Inter have an average xG created of 1.96, next best is Juventus on 1.85 and then there’s quite a gap to the rest at 1.6 or lower. Juventus have been great at the back – an average xG conceded of 1.11 is in the top three defensive figures.
So, why aren’t they close to the title race? They simply haven’t been taking their chances this season. A recent 1-1 draw here against Lecce a classic example – they finished the game with an xG of 2.78! They could have easily scored four or five. They did score three against Sassuolo last time out, so maybe finally they have found their scoring boots. Creating chances has been a big issue for Cremonese this season – they have the worst attacking figure in Serie A and they are the only side with an average xG created sub 1.0. They also have the worst defensive figure in Serie A too!
Cremonese have been conceding a host of chances – their average xG conceded is as high as 1.83 but so far they have been getting away with that. Their actual goals conceded figure is only 1.21 which is a huge difference, and a lot of points there. They are very lucky not to actually be in the relegation zone. It’s no surprise then that Juventus come into this game as the red-hot favourites. Juventus are trading 1.27 with Cremonese 14.0 and the draw is 6.6 at the time of writing. I feel Juventus can win impressively here, and I like the 1.79 on them to cover the 1.5 goal handicap – we have one of the best attacking sides against the weakest defensive side here – Juventus just have to take their chances!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Juventus -1.5 goals to beat Cremonese at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
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