TEXAS OPEN: The PGA of America was formed in 1916, and in the 1920s they began to sanction a serious of tournaments held in winter and early spring throughout Florida and Texas. Though the PGA Tour as we know it today wasn’t officially launched until 1929, this “winter tour” was its precursor, and one of the stops from 1922 onward was in San Antonio for this tournament, now known as the Valero Texas Open. That makes this event older than the Tour itself, and it counts amongst its champions some of the true legends of the game, names like Hagen, Nelson, Hogan, Snead, Palmer, Trevino, and Watson.
In recent years, however, the top players and big names have mostly skipped this tournament due to its place on the schedule, with many choosing to go to Augusta a week early for extra preparation ahead of next week’s Masters. As a result, this event has turned into a great opportunity for some of the lesser-known players to make an early-season splash, and since it’s the final chance to qualify for the year’s first major (win and you’re in), we often get some pretty engrossing drama on Sunday. Two years ago, for instance, young Akshay Bhatia, then playing on conditional status, made birdie on the first playoff hole to defeat Denny McCarthy for his first PGA Tour victory, a win which changed the course of his career, and his life. Bhatia no longer has to concern himself with run-of-the-mill Tour events like this one and is in Augusta getting ready for next week, though last year’s champion, Brian Harman, is here to defend and is currently trading at around 80.0 on the BETDAQ exchange.
The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio has played host to this tournament since it was opened in 2010, so most of the guys in the field will have good familiarity with the place. Designed by PGA Tour nemesis Greg Norman, it’s a rugged track that measures nearly 7,500 yards and has trees and native underbrush lining almost every hole. It almost always plays firm and fast, so you don’t have to bomb it off the tee to contend, and things can get really difficult when the wind blows, as it often does. The sticky Bermuda rough and the undulating, difficult-to-hold greens only complicate matters, and scoring is generally a challenge here, as the 20-under mark has only been reached twice in the past decade, with Harman needing a mere 9-under to win last year. The game’s gotta be sharp at the Oaks Course.
Ludvig Aberg (17.5) heads BETDAQ’s Win Market this week, with Tommy Fleetwood (19.5) and a resurgent Jordan Spieth (19.5) close behind. This course has produced plenty of long-odds winners over the past decade, however, and there are several interesting options a bit further down the board. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Russell Henley (20.0)- There’s perhaps no one on Tour who does a better job of controlling his irons in the wind than Henley, and it gets pretty breezy at TPC San Antonio, especially in the afternoons. His tight, controlled draw bores through the wind, and on bermuda greens like the ones he’ll see this week, Henley, who currently ranks 14th on Tour in strokes gained putting, is as good a putter as anyone in the world. He’s been in fine form of late, finding the top-20 in 5 of his 6 starts this season, with the most recent outings being a T6 at the API and a T13 at The Players, and in his last appearance at this event, back in 2024, he tied for 4th, so he certainly knows how to get around the Oaks Course. He’s my pick to win this week — the price won’t feel so short come Sunday.
Johnny Keefer (46.0)- A 25-year-old rookie, Keefer took the Korn Ferry Tour by storm last year, becoming only the third player in that tour’s history to win Rookie of the Year and Player of the Year in the same season, joining Scottie Scheffler (’19) and Sungjae Im (’18). He crept into the top-50 of the world rankings by the end of the year, earning himself an invite to next week’s Masters, and after a slow start to the 2026 season it all seemed to come together for him last week in a 3rd-place finish at the Houston Open. He’ll be riding that momentum to his hometown tournament this week, as Keefer is a San Antonio native who will be spending the next few days in his parents’ home, sleeping in his childhood bedroom. He’s played the Oaks Course, by his own estimation, hundreds of times, with his self-professed low round there being a 61, and he told the press this week that he’s always dreamed of teeing it up in this tournament specifically. Well, he’s here now, a wildly talented young player coming off the best finish of his brief career. Who knows, we may see something special out of him this week. He’s certainly capable.
William Mouw (100.0)- Though he’s yet to become a household name, the 25-year-old Mouw is heading in that direction if he keeps improving. After bursting onto the scene with a victory at last year’s ISCO Championship, where he closed with a final round 61 for a 1-shot win, he’s been racking up the paychecks, with five top-25 finishes in his past 13 starts after recording zero in the previous 13. He’s been playing especially well lately, finishing 6th at the Cognizant and T24 at The Players, and after making the cut on debut in this tournament last year, he feels primed for a big week. TPC San Antonio is demanding off the tee, and that’s an area where Mouw excels, ranking 4th on Tour in total driving. I’m happy to take a chance on him at a triple-digit price.
