FA CUP SATURDAY: The Striker previews MANCHESTER CITY v LIVERPOOL, CHELSEA v PORT VALE and SOUTHAMPTON v ARSENAL all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER CITY V LIVERPOOL
12.45pm It’s a blockbuster Saturday from the FA Cup on Betdaq Betting Exchange! It’s Quarter-Final weekend, and it’s great to have domestic football back after what has felt like a long International Break. I’m sure it has for England fans anyway, two boring friendlies along with an embarrassing loss to Japan! Up for grabs today is a place at Wembley in the Semi-Finals and we kick off the action with the tie of the round as Manchester City host Liverpool at the Etihad. City won the Carabao Cup Final over Arsenal just a fortnight ago at Wembley, and while they remain nine points behind Arsenal in the Premier League, this is their best remaining chance at a trophy that keeps this season alive. Given we head into the Quarter-Finals with City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal all still involved – we’re going to have a high quality finish. It’s no surprise with home advantage that City come into the game as the favourites – Pep Guardiola’s side are trading 1.81 with Liverpool 4.3 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. Liverpool have really struggled to get wins in the Premier League this season, another loss before the International Break knocked them out of the Top Four too. The title is long gone, disappointing given they went into the season well fancied after last season.
That makes the FA Cup hugely important for Arne Slot. It has not been a happy second season at Anfield, and the pressure is growing. While there’s a gap in the Premier League table, there’s not much between the sides on performance levels. Liverpool’s average xG created of 1.75 is the second best attacking figure in the Premier League, fractionally ahead of City – they have an average xG created of 1.73 so barely anything between them. There’s a bigger gap at the back – City’s average xG conceded of 1.13 is the second best defensive figure in the Premier League and while Liverpool are in third, their figure is 1.28. Liverpool have had issues at the back most of the season, and they haven’t been converting all their chances either so that’s where the problems come from. Despite that, I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.81 on City here – they have had their problems getting over the line in games too. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here, and Over 2.5 goals looks a nice bet at 1.59 in what should be an open and end-to-end game. Both sides need this result, and I expect a full-blooded, entertaining game with plenty of chances at both ends of the pitch.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FAMaLi
CHELSEA V PORT VALE
5.15pm Next we have a David v Goliath FA Cup Quarter-Final as Chelsea host Port Vale at Stamford Bridge. Port Vale are a League One side who sit rock bottom coming into this game, and yet here they are in the last eight of the FA Cup for the first time since 1954. The two sides haven’t met in a competitive fixture since 1929, and have never met in the FA Cup. It will be an emotional day for thousands of Port Vale fans making the trip but to say they are up against it here is an under-statement. Port Vale’s FA Cup run has been nothing short of remarkable. They knocked out Bristol City and then Sunderland of the Championship in the fifth round, with New Zealand international Ben Waine scoring the winner in three consecutive ties. It is the stuff of fairytales, and the kind of story that makes the FA Cup the greatest domestic cup competition in the world. That said, there has to be a reality check somewhere, and Stamford Bridge on a Saturday afternoon is probably the moment reality arrives. Chelsea are trading as short as 1.08 at the time of writing with Port Vale 36.0 and the draw is 4.4.
I think it’s fair to say this one feels more about how many goals can Chelsea score rather than will they actually win. A price as short as 1.08 isn’t much good for most punters – not even that good to include in a weekend Acca! We’ll have to look around the side markets for some value here. Chelsea have been basically 50/50 in opinion under new manager Liam Rosenior; it was a positive start but now you have some sections saying he’s out of his depth. Their average xG created of 1.6 is the fifth best attacking figure in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded of 1.28 is joint-third. Not bad; they should probably have more wins under their belt. More importantly for Rosenior, this is a real chance to bring Chelsea a trophy in his first few months, so while the gulf in class is massive here I’d still expect him to name a strong starting XI to get to Wembley. They are trading 1.48 to cover the 2.5 goal handicap, and that looks worth a small bet.
The Striker Says:
One point win Chelsea -2.5 goals to beat Port Vale at 1.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FAChPo
SOUTHAMPTON V ARSENAL
8pm We finish Saturday in the FA Cup as Southampton host Arsenal at St Mary’s in a Championship v Premier League tie. Obviously the gulf in class between the Premier League and the Championship has grown massively in recent years with the money in the top flight, but Southampton have been playing decent football this season. They are sitting in sixth in the Championship at the moment, and seem well placed for a Playoff spot. They have the fourth best attacking figure with an average xG created of 1.62, but where they have fallen down is at the back. Their average xG conceded of 1.36 is a mid-table defensive figure in the Championship. They face the best defensive side in Europe here – Arsenal have an average xG conceded of 0.92. To compare that, Bayern Munich have an average xG conceded of 1.05 in the Bundesliga so for Arsenal to better that in a league as competitive as the Premier League is seriously impressive. It’s no surprise that Arsenal come into the game as the red-hot favourites. Arsenal are trading 1.31 with Southampton 13.0 and the draw is 6.2 at the time of writing. Arsenal have some massive games coming up, so you do have consider Arteta might decide to rest players here.
It’s still hard to see past an Arsenal win here though, but the 1.31 doesn’t jump off the page. There’s no prizes for tipping 1.31 shots anyway, so we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. Arteta has ten players with fitness concerns going into this one, but I wouldn’t read much into Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice and Gabriel withdrawing from England duty. Southampton come into the game on a good run, they are unbeaten in twelve Championship games which will obviously give them confidence, but it’s hard to see past the gulf in class here. Arsenal will also be mindful of the Champions League Quarter-Final first leg against Sporting Lisbon on Tuesday – even if Arteta would never publicly say that. I can see Arsenal having to grind out a win here rather than blowing Southampton away, and I also feel it’s a game for small stakes. Under 2.5 goals is trading around 2.6 and I’m happy with a small position to finish the day – I can see Arsenal running out 1-0 or 2-0 winners.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FASoAr
