SERIE A SUNDAY: The Ultra previews INTER MILAN v ROMA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
INTER MILAN V ROMA
7.45pm We have another cracker from Europe on Sunday! The focus on Betdaq Betting Exchange is on Serie A as Inter Milan host Roma at the San Siro! This is a cracking way to end what has been a wonderful Easter weekend of football from Europe. Inter come into this one in a commanding position at the top of Serie A – they have a six point lead over AC Milan in the title race, so the Scudetto is effectively in their hands now. They’ve been playing the best football all season, and anyone who likes xG could see them running away with the title. Obviously they had a big setback getting knocked out of the Champions League, but at least that frees up the availability to focus domestically.
The underlying numbers for Inter are exceptionally good, as they have been all season. Their average xG created of 2.01 is the best attacking figure in Serie A, and their average xG conceded of 0.97 is also the best defensive figure. When you are creating the most and conceding the fewest expected goals, it’s no wonder you sit top of the table by six points! Roma are playing good football too this season, but obviously not at the level of Inter, and with recent losses they are now under pressure to hold onto a European spot. A few weeks ago they were targeting the Champions League spots, but they come into the weekend sitting in sixth spot – Atalanta, four points behind them, will fancy their chances of catching them.
Roma have an average xG created of 1.54 which is the joint-fifth best attacking figure in Serie A – a genuinely solid output, and it reflects the positive work Gasperini has done since taking over in the summer. Their average xG conceded of 1.15 is the also the fifth best defensive figure in Serie A – you can see Roma are a very good side, but not quite Champions League level. They are up against it away from home against a fantastic Inter side. It’s no surprise that Inter come into the game as odds on the favourites at 1.68 with Roma 5.7 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing.
Roma have found wins hard to come by recently. They’ve only managed three wins from their last nine Serie A games, and that’s why they’ve been slipping down the table each week. A win here would be a huge statement and would keep their top-four hopes alive, but this is by far their toughest test. Roma edged a 1-0 win earlier in the season when they had home advantage, but the gulf in quality between these sides right now is significant on the underlying numbers, and Inter have been ruthless at the San Siro this season. Their home record has been exceptional throughout the campaign. The 1.68 looks a good bet in my opinion. It’s hard to have a strong opinion on goals here and I expect Roma to be a little cagey – it’s easy to see why the Over/Under 2.5 goals market is so even, and I feel the best value option is the Inter win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Inter Milan to beat Roma at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SAInRo
