ANOTHER SATURDAY COUP: DAQMAN LANDS 10-1 JACKPOT: Saturday-king Daqman did it again yesterday with two jackpot races out of two: his winners were Nadiya De La Vega (WON 10-1) and Sapphire (WON 5-2). They follow a 4-1 nap on Friday and a string of weekend success.
HE STRUCK GOLD AT 16-1 AND 9-1: Daqman has recently had jackpot winners of the Ayr Gold Cup (Captain Ramius, WON 16-1) and the Cambridgeshire (Bronze Angel, WON 9-1) and others at 6-1 and shorter.
CAN YOU MAKE IT PAY? But can you make a profit on his jackpot bets? Look out later in the week for a full rundown on the results for 2012 so far, revealing his price-wise success and plans for the 2012-13 jumps season.
Frankel was not as good as Dancing Brave. That must be the official conclusion after the so-called world champion won his last race, the Champion Stakes at Newmarket yesterday, making it 14 in a row.
The admission during the week before the race that handicappers may have been ‘generous’ to Dancing Brave at the time only supports what I have been saying all along: that they’ve also been generous to Frankel, who never ran in the Derby or the Arc, which Dancing Brave won in 1986.
It seems that, like the general punting public, handicappers too want a champion and are prepared to get carried away in the euphoria. The ‘never won a Derby or an Arc’. Frankel criticism is not seemly right now but I bet it will lead ratings officials of today to reflect in another 26 years how they were ‘a bit generous’.
Dancing Brave ended his career on the then record highest rating of 141. Before the Champion Stakes, Frankel was on 140, and he did nothing on Saturday to raise that, having beaten a 130 animal, Cirrus Des Aigles, by around a length and threequarters. In fact, the Racing Post is saying today that he ran below his best in the conditions.
In fact, Frankel has not officially improved more than 5lb in the last year, a strange state of a affairs for a champion who has won six races since being upped to 135. But what could they do? He was already close to the ceiling. That alone suggests he was overrated early in his career.
The truth is – well, my truth is – that Frankel is the best I’ve ever seen at a mile, mile and a quarter. That, as I’ve said (I called it ‘my truth’ and no one else’s), is subjective. That he’s dubbed ‘champion of the world’ is equally subjective, despite ratings that ‘prove’ it. He didn’t run beyond 10 furlongs; he didn’t run outside these islands; he simply didn’t take them on beyond his own stamping ground.
I’d like to have seen him over the Classic distance, a mile and a half. I’d like to have seen him against Danedream. I’d like to have seen him against Dancing Brave, but all I have is the same guesstimate as the ratings people.
It suffices that, in my lifetime, I have been lucky enough to watch Nijinsky, Dancing Brave and Frankel. That would be my order in. I have seen Lester Piggott, Steve Cauthen, Mick Kinane. I have filled my wallet with winnings supplied by Vincent O’Brien, Ryan Price and Barry Hills.
No doubt my Dad would have wanted to add Ribot and Sea Bird to the top horses; Sir Gordon Richards and Charlie Smirke to the jocks; and his favourites Jack Jarvis and Walter Nightingall to the trainers.
We are lucky to see great sportsmen and animals. You cannot rate them higher than the records and the sentiment that prevail at the time. We can’t really compare. And we certainly should not look back and knock ‘em down again.
There’s only the Breeders Cup (no Frankel) left of the Flat now, and I was glad to get a toe into the murky waters of the jumps season with a big winner yesterday.
There is no doubt, even from the little we’ve seen already, that Henderson and Nicholls will vie for the big pots and the trainers’ title. Nicholls has five runners at Kempton this afternoon with, according to the trade paper, a 53% strike-rate on the course in October.
Daryl Jacob takes most of the rides but, for the only race he won on this card last year, the class-2 two-miler (4.25), he relies on Harry Derham, the ‘find’ of the 2011-12 season..
They haven’t met but the difference between the two main protagonists in this race is that the Nicholls’ runner, Brampour, wins when fresh; the McManus challenger, Get Me Out Of Here, usually needs time.
Perhaps significantly – perhaps not – Ruby Walsh remains at home to do battle at Cork: he’s riding two for Thomas Mullins, who hit the headlines in the summer by winning the Galway Plate with Bob Lingo.
But what catches my eye is his super strike-rate for Tony Martin, and the 14.0 available about Regusci (2.10) in the Cork opener. I shall stick mainly to my usual plan over the sticks, regulating the stakes to the prices and offers.
It works very well and allows me, for little loss, to dabble in such outsiders as Regusci today. When the outsider is really value – in the Saturday big races – I shall raise my sights and attack at jackpot level.
Meanwhile, Gordon Elliott, though well represented at both home fixtures today is over here at Kempton after four winners in five days, including one on each day at Cheltenham at the weekend.
But, back to my article last week about juveniles and novice hurdlers, can Fisher (2.15) give weight away as a precocious winner in this sphere so far?
If the ground at Kempton were riding soft, I’d say not, but it was noticeable how this one quickened really smartly off a sounder surface at Gowran Park and, with McCoy in the plate, his experience can pull it off.
For my each-way shot in England, I fancy Basoda (3.50 Kempton), 7.8 on BETDAQ as I write: he won this race two years ago, first time back and on a goodish surface, both of which apply again today.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.5pts win and place REGUSCI (2.10 Cork)
BET 2.9pts win and place BASODA (3.50 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pt win double FISHER (2.15 Kempton) and BRAMPOUR (nap, 4.25 Kempton) plus 4 x 1pt win trebles the same two with Regusci (2.10 Cork) and Basoda (3.50 Kempton)
* Daqman’s bets are to win 20 points, unless otherwise stated (as in Daq Multiples today).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
