HANDS UP FOR AN EXETER WINNER AT 8.8: Daqman reckons Shaking Hands could make all the running at Exeter today at a welcome 8.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
CARD IS HOT BUT THE DEALER IS VALUE: The meeting sees the reappearance of Cue Card but the same stable has primed Inside Dealer at a big price for a race he finished second in last year.
50 PER CENT WINNING NAPS: Daqman’s current naps form is 3112101313. That’s five out of the last 10, with just the one out of a place.
The punters worst enemy is a false-run race. Too fast and a stayer wins a sprint. Too slow and a sprinter wins a marathon. That applies to the £35,000 Haldon Gold Cup today, just as much as this morning’s £4m Melbourne Cup.
You can’t blame actress-turned-trainer Gai Waterhouse. Gai’s script for Flemington almost pulled it off: her Glencadam Gold was allowed to dictate a leisurely pace, which almost landed her victory with Fiorente, beaten only a length in the world’s richest handicap.
Many English punters who knew Fiorente with Sir Michael Stoute had ruled him out as a soft-ground horse at 1m 4f. More to the point, who could have fancied this morning’s winner, Green Moon, on his farewell runs for Harry Dunlop. Last of eight at Haydock on soft. Last of five at Newbury on firm.
Only those with long memories who saw Green Moon’s slick four-lengths slam of Monterosso in the London Gold Cup at Newbury might have been on at Flemington. But that was May 2010.
Wouldn’t you rather have a La Estrella? That’s the Spanish for ‘star,’ and star he is. At least, he is at Southwell. La Estrella (2.10) tries to beat a world record this afternoon.
Don Cantillon’s gelding bids for 13 successive wins on the same track since November, 2008, with 11 of his 12 victories coming in claimers.
La Estrella has scored 20 times all told, including after 23 months off between March 2009 and February 2011 so, although it’s harder to get a nine-year-old fit, there is every chance he can come fresh to a record after being absent since May.
The Haldon Gold Cup (2.50 Exeter) has four of the five runners attempting to bridge an even longer absence: none of the quartet has raced in the last 180 days.
Webberys Dream did not perform well after a long absence and Edgardo Sol’s best after a hefty break was third of five. Menorah won first time on a racecourse, and a holiday holds no fears for Cue Card.
His record fresh is 111 and – on that question of pace – he doesn’t need any help. Cue Card likes to do his own thing out in front and, over the years, Joe Tizzard has handled his impetuous style well.
Still only six, he capped his novice career by chasing home Sprinter Sacre in a very-fast-run Arkle at the Cheltenham festival, despite there being a small field, one more than he faces today.
That was Cue Card’s first run over the minimum. He’ll need all of today’s extra furlong and a half, and will probably go for the Ryanair (2m 5f) at the next festival in March.
Menorah was 22 lengths behind Cue Card in the Arkle and his rating – 3lb in front of his rival – was achieved over 2m 4f at Aintree, where Edgardo Sol excelled at 2m, sprinting away by 14 lengths and seven in the Red Rum Chase.
You can’t leave out Renard. Officially, on the ratings, he’s handicapped to run a dead-heat with Cue Card: he has the advantage of a run back, and he’s already a winner over CD up the Haldon hill.
At 10.5, Renard is the value of the race. ‘It’s worth a shot,’ Venetia Williams tells the trade paper. The likely fast pace should favour the class horses but this is a handicap: do you want to take odds-on Cue Card on his trajectory to the King George or 3-1 Menorah can turn around that 22 lengths?
Only one favourite has won in the last seven seasons, and only one horse – last year’s winner, Medermit – has carried more than 10st 12lb. Fascinating stuff.
This season’s Arkle already has Hinterland (3.20) prominent in the betting and, whatever happens to Edgardo Sol, this one should win the novice prize for the same stable, with fitness advantage and almost a stone in allowances over the second favourite.
There are a couple of longish-distance handicaps to get your teeth into. Nicholls-Walsh had a clear favourite on BETDAQ this morning in That’lldoboy (3.50), another young horse by comparison.
In fact, Ditcheat has attempted this race only once before, when its contender was fifth of nine at 4-1, and the favourite is no shoo-in here: he’s trying a new trip, 11lb higher than for his last win and after an easy-on-me comeback following two consecutive falls at the turn of the year.
He could bounce back: though that’s not the form of a hot favourite, the rest of the field also have question-marks against them.
Wide Receiver has to improve after a modest return. Richards Sundance has slipped down the weights and was being backed this morning as a CD winner who has scored before after a long absence. But you need a lot of faith, since he hasn’t won for nearly three years.
Ballyhilty Bridge, a youngster still learning the ropes, could be thereabouts but Inside Dealer (11.0 on BETDAQ) looks the value to reproduce his good Spring form after a run back at Cheltenham.
Inside Dealer was runner-up in this race last year when he hadn’t had a previous outing, and he’s been in the frame three times at Exeter: a solid each way.
I fancy David Pipe is going to ask Shaking Hands to make all in the hurdle (4.20). Best known as a front-running chaser these days but this is a weak race and he sneaks into a class 4 (his first handicap) with every chance of getting away from them: 8.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
The nap is Landscape (2.20), with Paul Nicholls having won this race four times in a row, and with the market rival, Billy Twyford, being nothing special and exposed to an improver.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 12pts win (nap) LANDSCAPE (2.20 Exeter)
BET 2.1pts win RENARD (2.40 Exeter)
BET 2pts win and 3pts place INSIDE DEALER (3.50 Exeter)
BET 2.5pts win SHAKING HANDS (4.20 Exeter)
* Daqman stakes his bets to win 20 points. You therefore know the offer he took (divide 20 by the stake).
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