HE’S A LEGEND AT 25-1: Yesterday was not a good day to advertise Daqman’s amazing skills as a tipster.. until, that is, he pulled out of the hat a 30.0 BETDAQ offer, Island Legend (WON 25-1) in a Betdaq-sponsored race at Kempton last night.
GREAT EIGHT FOR THE KING GEORGE: Daqman surveys the front of the King George market, analyzing the hopes of the top eight for Boxing Day. The race’s roll of honour seldom has new names on the board but there’s no Kauto Star this year. His record-breaking reign is over.
There are just three names on the King George roll of honour since 2003. It seems a long, long time since Edredon Bleu that year (did he really win it?), perhaps because the memories of five-time winner Kauto Star are so strong. Or perhaps because no one wants to remember George Bush singing ‘I Did It My Way.’
After Kicking King’s back-to-back success (2004-5), there was only one inter regnum to Kauto’s reign, when Long Run beat him into third in 2010. Last year Kauto Star came back, with Long Run put in his place in second, yet that defeat was an omen in itself for Long Run this year.
Long Run Before Kauto Star recaptured Kempton’s Christmas cracker and broke the race record, and going right back to Mandarin in 1957, five horses have regained the King George crown, with additionally, Desert Orchid, See More Business and Wayward Lad gaining sweet revenge.
That’s one reason why I can’t do my usual ABC guide: the stats about age and form don’t make sense because, Gold Cup or King George, from Arkle through to Best Mate and Kauto Star, you are so often following a young hero until he becomes a legend and, with only one or two exceptions it’s a young horses’ race this time around.
Long Run himself is still only seven. Like Mandarin, The Fellow, Kicking King and Kauto Star, he opened his account in the race when only six years old, though the 2010 race was delayed until January 2011, so it should have been run when he was just five.
We were told there was plenty left to work on when Long Run returned to the racecourse at Haydock in the BF Chase in November yet time may tell that his close second to Silviniaco Conti was as good a seasonal debut that he’s ever made.
Long Run was only third in a handicap at the start of 2010-11 and was hammered eight lengths by Kauto Star in the same Haydock opening to his 2011-12 season.
Nicky Henderson’s son of Cadoudal has never been out of the first three in 23 starts, 13 of them wins, five under Sam Waley-Cohen. The only blemish on his record is the decision to drop him 10lb in the ratings since his defeat by Kauto Star in last year’s race. If only this were a handicap!
Cue Card Even so, Long Run’s nearest rival in the market, Cue Card, is rated 7lb his inferior, and those ratings are for his form up to a maximum of 19.5 furlongs over fences.
He’s never completed in a race beyond 2m 4f and he’s won only one chase outside novice class in his career. But he’s just six years old.
And the world’s at his feet if he can combine stamina with the speed he showed over hurdles or when second to Sprinter Sacre in this year’s Arkle with Al Ferof more than 25 lengths behind. If..
Riverside Theatre A 5lb better animal than Cue Card, according to the handicapper, but has two more years showing in his teeth, though with only five more starts on his CV.
The reason for that was a pelvic injury which denied him a crack at the 2011 Ryanair but he made up for it by slamming Albertas Run in the same race in March.
He’s not had a prep run for Boxing Day but why should he when he’s won on his reappearance for the last three seasons. His form at Kempton is 11112 but that ‘2’ was a 12-lengths defeat by Long Run in the delayed 2010 King George in January last year.
Captain Chris In the same boat as Cue Card and Riverside Theatre in that he’s never won over 3m; in fact, not beyond 2m 3f.
The Pendil Novices’ Chase here at Kempton in February last year was the scene of his prep win during a superb piece of training by Philip Hobbs to get him spot on for the Arkle that March. He was. He won it.
But he’s never really been in that top form since and was more than 18 lengths of the winner when third in this King George last December, and was beaten six lengths by Riverside Theatre in the Ryanair.
Sir Des Champs Would have been challenging Long Run for favouritism on Boxing Day had he won the John Durkan on his reappearance at Punchestown.
But the eight-in-a-row winner wasn’t even favourite. He came up against another rising star, Flemenstar in fact, and was stuffed five lengths.
However, trainer Willie Mullins was unperturbed, pointing out that the trip was only 2m 4f and that he would come on the proverbial bundle for the race.
He’d won his previous outing over 3m 1f by 36 lengths and 31, albeit in a novice chase, but, as we’ve seen, with some in front of him in the market seemingly short-runners at 3m, he certainly cannot be written off for that defeat.
Grands Crus Ditto. Same again. Déjà vu. As with Sir Des Champs, only worse, the Grands Crus balloon seemed to have burst after his flop, fourth to Bobs Worth in the RSA and, again (pulled up), on his return at Cheltenham last month.
But ditto, same again, déjà vu, this horse is a stout performer at 3m and beat Silviniaco Conti (see Long Run) on this Kempton Boxing Day card in last year’s Feltham. Can he bounce back to that form?
Finians Rainbow What price Nicky Henderson ‘doing a Michael Dickinson’, or at least getting the 1-2-3, if the Rainbow follows Long Run and Riverside Theatre into the line-up and up the hill on the day?
At nine, he’s exposed, but still had to earn his 173 rating, which officially puts him a pound in front of the field. But (ditto etc) that came of success up to a maximum of 2m 4f. He’s never attempted a race under Rules beyond 2m 5f.
He blundered out of it behind Captain Chris at Ascot last month but before that had beaten a string of these over shorter trips: Albertas Run, Al Ferof, Kauto Stone, Sizing Europe and Wishfull Thinking, including in the Champion Chase.
Kauto Stone I end with a Kauto, which is where I came in. ‘Stone’ would not have been uttered in the same breath as ‘Star’ until his return – over 3m mark you – at Down Royal in November when he looked like ‘the real deal’ in his length defeat of First Lieutenant.
Perhaps not much wording will change in the ‘past winners’ list, after all, with Ruby Walsh back on a ‘Kauto.’
KING GEORGE VERDICT: At the front of the market, Long Run is facing stable companions or horses untried at 3m. Add the two together and you have every opportunity for Team Henderson to set it up for a stamina test to bring in Long Run’s raking finish. The ground is now similar to when he won the penultimate King George.
I look to the new kids on the block as his main dangers, Sir Des Champs and Kauto Stone, 7-1 and 8-1 respectively with Ladbrokes on Thursday morning when both were 10.0 value on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.8pts win EMPEROR CONCERTO (2.10 Towcester)
BET 6.6pts win BRIGHT CLOUD (2.40 Towcester)
BET 6.8pts win ST PAUL DE VENCE (4.30 Kempton)
BET 6.8pts win (nap) GUEST OF HONOUR (6.00 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES’ CHRISTMAS BOX: 0.5pts win yankee all above selections.
WIN-30 JACKPOT (King George 1-2-3): BET 10.5pts win LONG RUN, and 3.3pts win on each KAUTO STONE and SIR DES CHAMPS (Kempton Park, Boxing Day)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). But jackpot bets have increased profit targets and are staked accordingly. Daq Multiples are as stated.
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