The Wild Card games panned out largely as the layers feared they would, with all four favourites prevailing and covering their respective handicaps in the process. Our selections went 3-1 on the handicaps, 2-2 on the over-under points-totals.
Here’s our take on Sunday’s two games:
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (Sky Sports HD, Sunday, 6pm)
BETDAQ handicap: Atlanta Falcons -1
Total Points: 45.5
Weather: Dome (inconsequential)
Our take: This is, to many bettors, something of a coin-toss NFC match-up. I don’t see it that way. Matt Ryan is going to win his first playoff game and Atlanta are the best bet of the divisional round.
In five seasons, the Falcons’ quarterback has engineered 15 fourth-quarter comebacks and 22 game-winning drives, but Ryan is yet to win a playoff game in three attempts. His quarterback rating in the playoffs is 71.2, which is a far cry from his lofty regular-season mark of 90.9.
So he can’t handle the pressure, right?
Look at who those playoff losses were against: Arizona in 2008, Green Bay in 2010, the New York Giants last year. All went on to play in the Super Bowl.
It could be argued that he’s been a little unlucky, but he has not had the weapons in past years that he now has at his disposal. Julio Jones, in his second season, makes Atlanta’s receiving trio (with Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez) among the best in the NFL.
The Seahawks have been one of the hottest teams entering the playoffs, beating Chicago on the road, and putting up 58, 50 and 42 points in successive weeks against Arizona, Buffalo and San Francisco respectively. Those stunning offensive performances, combined with a 5-1 league-best record against opponents with a winning record, and a stout defence that gave up a league-best 15.3 points per game, is the reason layers make this a heads-or-tails contest.
But while there are plusses with playing a Wild Card game last week instead of resting – the Seahawks are 6-15 coming off a bye week since 1990 – there is one big negative to come out of beating Washington on the road last week: Injuries.
Seattle will be without their sack leader, defensive lineman Chris Clemons, who was placed on Injured Reserve on Wednesday with a torn ACL. While there isn’t much drop-off between him and rookie replacement Bruce Irvin, he will be playing his first game of his NFL career at defensive end.
Running back Marshawn Lynch did not practice on Wednesday because of a foot injury and has missed practice in the past because of a nagging back injury. Cornerback Byron Maxwell (hamstring) and safety Jeron Johnson (hamstring) have also missed practice time this week.
Lynch is expected to start against an Atlanta run defence that has been spotty all season (giving up 123.4 yards per game, ranking 21st in the league).
There’s a lot of chatter about Seattle’s big, physical cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman – and they are very good. But they have not faced two good wideouts like Jones and White all season. And if Marcus Trufant attempts to cover Gonzalez, then it’s advantage Atlanta.
Some will say the Falcons’ record is a product of their easy schedule. And, to be fair, they have played just three ‘quality’ teams. However, they have beaten all three.
Atlanta’s defence is much better than it was last year and installing Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator – as we said in our pre-season preview – was a masterstroke, the missing piece in the jigsaw.
The bye week was a blessing for them, as defensive end John Abraham (ankle sprain) and cornerback Dunta Robinson (concussion), injured in their Week 17 defeat by Tampa, have had time to heal.
And they are 4-1 under Mike Smith after their bye week (which came way back in Week 7 – they beat Philadelphia 30-17 on the road in Week 8).
Seattle are a nice story. In their favour is their good record against the Falcons: They have won four of their last six at Atlanta – the last coming in 2002. They have a clear advantage in the running game and defensive pass efficiency, and while they have improved on the road, winning their last three regular-season games and the Wild Card, they are just 4-5 on their travels overall – and four of those five defeats came against teams who finished with losing records.
Two of their road wins were at Carolina and in Toronto against a slumping Buffalo team. They were fortunate to win in Chicago – where they invariably do well – and they benefited from playing against a quarterback effectively playing on one leg in Washington. Before Robert Griffin III went down with a knee injury, the Redskins had raced to a 14-0 lead.
The Seahawks and rookie quarterback Russell Wilson are about to be given a taste of their own ’12th man’ medicine in a loud dome. They are still a different team away from home than they are in Seattle.
Expect the points total to go over the 45.5 mark in what could develop into a shoot-out, which the Falcons will win. And it will be a much easier victory than layers believe.
News break: Andy Reid is the new head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs after serving 14 years in Philadelphia. At least some Eagles fans will be happy…
HOUSTON TEXANS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Sky Sports HD, Sunday, 9.30pm)
BETDAQ handicap: New England Patriots -9.5
Total Points: 48
Weather: 39/49f Mostly Sunny
Our take: Despite his love of those abominable Ugg boots, Tom Brady was this week voted Sexiest Footballer on the planet. Again. He’s married to supermodel Gisele Bundchen. And on Sunday he will post his 17th career playoff victory, surpassing Joe Montana, and making him the winning-most postseason quarterback in NFL history.
Not a bad life, really.
His critics will point out that he looks like a clown in Ugg boots (what red-blooded male doesn’t?) and in his last 12 playoff games, Brady is 6-6. Montana also went 4-0 in Super Bowls (as did Terry Bradshaw), while Brady is 3-2 in the Big Game – and 0-2 in the post ‘Spygate’ era, without a Super Bowl ring since 2004.
But Brady has not been blessed with receivers such as Jerry Rice and John Taylor, running backs like Roger Craig, or a perennially strong defence led by players like Ronnie Lott.
Brady is a one-man wrecking crew and would probably have won two more Super Bowls had it not been for a couple of bad bounces, namely a miraculous helmet catch by the New York Giants’ David Tyree in 2008 and a dropped pass by Wes Welker that would have kept a crucial drive alive deep into last February’s defeat by the Giants.
He’s playing with a chip on his shoulder and while the Patriots are making all the right noises about facing a ‘much different’ Houston team to the one they beat 42-14 on December 10, don’t be fooled.
For while the Patriots are 4-6 in the post season against teams they had already faced in the regular season, they are not about to make the same mistake as they did in 2010 when, having thumped the New York Jets 45-3 six weeks earlier, promptly lost at home to their AFC East division rivals at home in the playoffs.
And remember, they didn’t just beat the Texans, they dismantled them – and did so without tight end Rob Gronkowski. In two games at Gillette Stadium, the Texans have been outscored 82-21.
Playoff experience also counts for a lot. In the Tom Brady era, the Patriots have six separate years where they have played three playoff games. They are 10-2 in playoff games at home in that time.
The Texans have played a total of three playoff games – and they lost their sole post-season road game. Furthermore, this will be quarterback Matt Schaub’s first road playoff start.
Both teams have lost four games this term. The Texans lost to four playoff teams, while the Patriots lost to three playoff teams and, incredibly, Arizona.
It’s been another remarkable season for Boston’s finest. Let’s not forget that they not only lost offensive tackle Matt Light to retirement at the start of the campaign, Pro Bowl right guard Brian Waters, who played every game last season, did not report this term, insisting he wanted to play for a team nearer his family in Texas.
But young studs like No77 Nate Solder have filled the void admirably and while the focus is all about Brady, Welker, Gronkowski and fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez, don’t forget that the Patriots’ running game has thrived. They are first in rushing touchdowns in the NFL and second in rushing attempts.
Belichick’s team are No1 in scoring in the NFL. In their last nine regular-season games they have outscored their opponents by 172 points. Compare that to Houston, who have, in their last eight regular season games and a Wild Card playoff victory, outscored their opponents by a grand total of three points.
The Patriots are also No1 in scoring differential in the NFL, along with topping the league in turnover differential and gaining the most first downs.
Houston looked a good team early on but the loss of linebacker Brian Cushing, who gave the Texans’ defence much more flexibility, has meant they have not been able to play so much dime defence this year.
This is an ongoing problem as this is a defence hot-wired to be aggressive. Many feel that the best way to beat Brady is to bring heavy blitz packages in an effort to rattle the passer. Personally, I’d play a dime defence, and get bodies in coverage rather than a base defence, which will mean relying on Barratt Ruud and Bradie James in coverage. What I think will happen, though, is Phillips will do what he does best – be aggressive and hope that Gronkowski and Hernandez can be covered one-on-one.
The Texans had a lot of success this season – with J.J. Watt leading the charge (against a lot of inexperienced quarterbacks, it has to be said) – when blitzing more.
But if they are true to their DNA it could spell disaster, as Houston will get exploited if they leave the likes of Stevan Ridley to be covered by just one linebacker.
Do the Texans have any hope?
The Patriots are 0-4 this season when held below 100 yards rushing and the Texans have held nine teams under 100 yards this term. And the Patriots’ defence is ranked 25th in the NFL in giving up first downs and in giving up yardage.
Arian Foster has to have a huge game for the Texans to win. They can do this by keeping possession through clock-munching drives and keeping the ball away from Brady. Well, duh!
And if you are relying on special teams, forget it. Houston’s special teams unit is the worst in football. I don’t believe the Texans stand a chance. Not even a slim one. Houston, you have a problem.
Suggestions:
Atlanta -1
New England -9.5
Seattle/Atlanta Over 45.5 total points
Houston/New England Over 48 total points
Don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s views on the game at betdaqnfl.com
Milham’s 2012 regular-season record:
Wild Card Weekend: 5-3
Week 17: 7-6
Week 16: 7-5
Week 15: 8-7
Week 14: 6-8-1
Week 13: 7-7-1
Week 12: 8-7-2
Week 11: 8-4
Week 10: 6-8
Week 9: 9-4
Week 8: 7-9
Week 7: 8-6
Week 6: 6-8
Week 5: 4-9
Week 4: 10-3
Week 3: 5-8
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 1: 7-5
Twitter: @simonmilham
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