This afternoon’s Ascot Chase is just one of those races that you simply savour. One of those races that forms the very fabric of the National Hunt season. You know all the protagonists inside out, you know their traits, their strengths and weaknesses, you can visualise every one of their last five runs at least without the need to resort to Sky Plus or racingpost.com – yet you still don’t know what’s going to win it.
Six runners, four with real chances, possibly five. You can understand why Somersby is only fourth favourite though. On official ratings, he is just the joint-third best horse in the race. He has 8lb to find on Finian’s Rainbow and 4lb to find with Captain Chris. Even with Cue Card, he is rated Cue Card’s equal, but Cue Card is only seven, Somersby is nine. Cue Card has raced just seven times over fences, Somersby has raced 17 times. In theory, therefore, Colin Tizzard’s horse has way more scope for progression.
On Racing Post Ratings, Somersby is fourth best, 176, compared with Finian’s Rainbow’s 182, Captain Chris’ 177 and Cue Card’s 177. He is also only fourth best on Timeform ratings, 179, 9lb inferior to Finian’s Rainbow, 4lb inferior to Cue Card, 3lb inferior to Captain Chris.
So how is he going to win?
Maybe he isn’t going to win, but maybe his chance is better than that suggested by odds of 6.2.
Take them one by one. Finian’s Rainbow is top-rated, deservedly so given that he is the reigning Champion Chaser, but he was desperately disappointing on his only run this term to date, over two miles and three furlongs at today’s track. It was the second time he had been beaten in as many runs over fences at Ascot.
Maybe it was the really soft ground that was his undoing that day, but it is not going to be a whole lot better today. Maybe it was something else, maybe he just wasn’t right, maybe he was having trouble with his breathing, and he has reportedly had a small wind operation since. Even if it was, he still has to bounce back. There are lots of imponderables there, lots that you have to take on trust, and he is short at 4.5.
Cue Card is obviously high-class, he was second behind Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle last year and he was really impressive in winning the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on his debut this term. However, he is another who has disappointed on his most recent run. That was in the King George at Kempton, when he didn’t jump well and when he was struggling before the three-mile trip should really have become an issue. The drop down to two miles and five and a half furlongs should be in his favour, but, as with Finian’s Rainbow, he has to bounce back, and 3.75 is short.
It is more difficult to pick holes in Captain Chris. He won the race in which Finian’s Rainbow disappointed on his debut this term, the Amlin Chase over two miles and three furlongs of today’s track, and he ran out of his skin to finish second in the King George, beaten just a neck. He is one for one at Ascot, he has to go right-handed, he is proven on soft ground now and this is probably his ideal trip. He has a lot in his favour.
The one weakness in the case for Captain Chris is that he had a desperately hard race in the King George and that he is on track for Cheltenham. Philip Hobbs surely would have given him a fair bit of time off after Christmas, and he is probably being trained to peak at Cheltenham, so there is a chance that today’s race is just a stepping stone in that regard. There is a chance that he will just not be at his peak today.
Indeed, that goes for Finian’s Rainbow and Cue Card as well. Finian’s is on a recovery mission, a positive run is surely the objective and then go to Cheltenham, while Cue Card has the Ryanair Chase on his radar, and this is the ideal stepping stone to that end.
Somersby is different, this race has probably been his target. He ran well on his seasonal debut in the Victor Chandler Chase – re-routed from Ascot to Cheltenham a week later – when he probably would have finished second had he not chased Sprinter Sacre and/or had the ultimate runner-up not stolen about 20 lengths out of the gate.
It makes sense that this race has been Somersby’s target, simply because it is a Grade 1 race run at Ascot. Somersby loves Ascot. In three runs over fences there, he has finished second to Master Minded in an Amlin Chase and a Victor Chandler Chase, and he has won a Victor Chandler Chase, beating Finian’s Rainbow into second place.
Remarkably, the three highest ratings of his chasing career have been achieved in his three runs over fences at Ascot. In all three he achieved a higher rating than he achieved in any of his 14 runs over fences away from Ascot. Whatever it is about the Berkshire track, it seems to suit him. Perhaps it is the long, gradual pull up from the sixth last fence to the winning line. Different to Cheltenham’s peaks and dales.
His run in the Victor Chandler Chase should have brought him forward. Mick Channon’s horse is invariably better on his second run of the season than he is on his first. He has achieved a higher rating on his second run of the season than on his seasonal debut every season since he started racing.
The distance is a little bit of a worry for the former Henrietta Knight-trained gelding, but he gets two miles and three furlongs well, he has won over two miles and four and a half furlongs, and he should get the trip. Fourth in the 2011 King George, he could even improve for the step up by a couple of furlongs in trip and, at 6.2, back at Ascot, Somersby could be the value of the race.
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