DAQMAN MAKES IT FIVE WINNING DAYS IN A ROW: Daqman finished in profit for the fifth day in succession on Thursday, thanks to Mazij (WON 4-1) and Ishikawa (WON 3-1).
He’s been in the money now for six days in the last week’s racing:
Recap:
Thursday: 4-1 and 3-1 scorers
Wednesday: 9-2 and 5-2 winners
Tuesday: 6-4 nap with Royal Holiday
Monday: 5-1 winner makes the day’s profit
Sunday: 10-1 jackpot landed
Friday: 33 points profit from 5-1, 4-1 and 5-6 wins
EASTER PARADE: BIG-RACE ANALYSIS: Today Daqman provides stats and facts about the big races over the Easter weekend tomorrow, Sunday and Monday. Look out next week for his Aintree specials.
Get on low numbers in the Lincoln! My survey shows that in the 11 Doncaster Lincoln Handicaps this century, stalls 1-10 filled the first three places four times.
Nine out of the 11 winners came from stalls 1-13. In two of those years the first 12 stalls contained the first six to finish; on five occasions, those stalls had five of the first six home.
But I searched for stats and in facts not just in the Lincoln but in nine big races over Easter, starting tomorrow (Saturday) for three days up to Monday’s Irish National.
CAMMIDGE TROPHY (Doncaster, tomorrow) If you delete three-year-olds (only one win since 1997) and those over the age of seven (zero success), you have removed 40% of the declared runners.
It’s a poor race for favourites, but otherwise the winner is found within the narrow parameter of 103-110 (strike rate 10 out of 14).
DUBAI WORLD CUP (Meydan, tomorrow) The last 10 years (going back to Nad Al Sheba before Meydan) have produced winners for USA (5), Great Britain (3), France and Japan (one each), with Saeed Bin Suroor (two) and Mahmood Al Zarooni officially GB winners.
The draw favours low numbers. Only one horse from a double-figure stall has made the frame in the three years of its running on Tapeta at Meydan.
The winners came from 5, 6 and 8, and in stalls between 5 and 8 on Saturday are Capponi, Side Glance, Planteur, and Royal Delta.
Favourites won four in a row on dirt but, since the switch to Tapeta, outsiders have scored at 12-1, 16-1 and 20-1.
Every winner in the decade had previously scored over the 1m 2f distance, which counts against Andrew Balding’s Side Glance (max winning trip 9f) and Ed Dunlop’s Red Cadeaux (wins all at 12f and 14f)
GODOLPHIN MILE (Meydan, tomorrow) The winner at Meydan has always been one of the top rated: this year, officially, it’s 116 Alpha, 115 Capital Attraction, Moonwalk In Paris, Penitent, Rerouted.
The favourite, Soft Falling Rain, is racing off only 113 and, though impressive in the UAE 2,000 Guineas, finished two-and-a-quarter and threequarters up on 91 and 98 rated horses.
LINCOLN HANDICAP (Doncaster, tomorrow) Here again are the horses from my ABC guide which had the ‘X’ factor (past ability to win the Spring; form figures in brackets).
The code letter ‘A’ was for a rating between 91 and 98; B a soft-ground winner; C placed first time out in a previous season; D placed in a field of 14 or more runners; E aged 4 or 5.
ABCDEX Captain Bertie (2341) Has been in the frame in all four starts in April and May, including fourth, repeatedly hampered, in the consolation Spring Mile a year ago, beaten about two lengths.
Turned out three weeks later to win the Newbury Spring Cup.
ABCDX Memory Cloth (1003123) Beat last year’s Lincoln winner, Brae Hill, at Newcastle in Jun (his Lincoln mark is 1lb below that).
ABCDX Global Village (0011001310) From the same stable as Memory Cloth. Three times a winner in April after an AW run, and caught the eye on his reappearance.
ABCDX Justonefortheroad (3341011) Fourth in 2011 Spring Mile and won the Thirsk Hunt Cup. Won first two runs back on turf 2012.
ABCEX Chapter Seven (10) Winner first time out last season and from a stable in form. Doncaster success last June came on soft ground, same conditions as subsequent win at York (1m 1f).
ACDEX Eshtibaak (010) Winner on his reappearance last year and well fancied (hampered) over 1m 2f, Ascot, July. Unexposed.
ACDX Brae Hill (20420414) Winner and second in previous Lincolns, and back to the same mark as for his success.
BCEX Majestic Myles (1413) Winner first run back in two of the last three seasons, he’s a Listed scorer on soft ground. But success as a mature horse has all been over 7f.
CDX Prince Of Johanne (00102112) Winner at the start and end of the 2011 season, including taking the Cambridgeshire. But all success on a sound surface
ROSEBERY HANDICAP (Kempton Park, tomorrow) Oh dear, only one winning favourite. How could punters get it so wrong? Well, last year they made Eshtibaak favourite but he could finish only 12th.
And that after a win on Polytrack at Lingfield, which doesn’t augur well for his Lincoln chances.
In fact, good horses have been beaten in the Rosebery: Red Cadeaux was second in 2011 (see above, Dubai World Cup) and the 2011 Lincoln winner was second in the Kempton race in 2009.
Four-year-olds have the best Rosebery record (five of the last seven); those below 9st a poor strike rate (one winner in the last seven years). Universal is, therefore, worth a second look.
MUSSELBURGH GOLD CUP (Sunday) Not a winning favourite in sight! But winners are closely grouped around 10-1 to 18-1 SP (five out of seven).
The North had taken six in a row until Roger Varian stopped the rot for Newmarket last season, with the shortest priced winner but with a Richard Fahey favourite in third.
POWERS GOLD CUP (Fairyhouse, Sunday) Noel Meade (Dylan Ross) likes to win this: 43% strike rate with form figures 13FP1P1.
The jockeys? Paul Carberry 4, Andrew Lynch 2, Tony McCoy 2; Ruby Walsh just the one in the last decade.
Flemenstar won it last year, and seven-year-olds (Dylan Ross, Aupcharlie, Buckers Bridge, Dedigout, Savello and Sweeney Tunes) are looking for the hat-trick on Sunday.
SUSSEX CHAMPION HURDLE (Plumpton, Sunday) With winners coming off 10st 6lb or more but to a ceiling of 11st 2lb in the three years of this race, 20 of the 26 declared seem to start at a disadvantage.
That’s not so far fetched when you realize that eight at the bottom of the weights are out of the handicap and two near the top are five-year-olds, which have never won it.
IRISH NATIONAL (Fairyhouse, Monday) Young horses win this: they’ve been aged seven and eight in 10 of the last 15 renewals, even six in 2011.
Only Desert 0rchid (1990) and Flashing Steel (1995) have been able to carry a big weight, since the magical days of Arkle, Flyingbolt and Brown Lad.
In 11 of the last 12 runnings, 10st 8lb was the ceiling for the winner’s weight, and the ‘team’ tally is Ireland 17 winners, England 4 since 1992.
That’s why, when I wrote about champion-trainer Willie Mullins earlier in the week, I fancied his chances were with Marasonnien.
Since then, he has withdrawn Boston Bob and Back in Focus. For Ruby Walsh to ride Marasonnien, he would need to get down to 10st 2lb.
Walsh was on board when Marasonnien finished second at Leopardstown in December to the subsequent (Cheltenham Festival) RSA Chase winner, Lord Windermere.
Gordon Elliott’s Romanesco, my other early fancy from the right mark in the handicap, remains in the race. But there’s a feast of big prizes to get through before the Bank Holiday.
* Next week: Don’t miss Daqman’s easy-ABC guide to the Aintree Grand National
DAQMAN’S BETS
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