Try as you might, it really is difficult to get away from Away We Go in this afternoon’s Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. And that is not just because you don’t want to be going against Willie Mullins during Punchestown week.
Away We Go ran a cracker to finish second in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse the last time we saw him at the start of the month. He travelled well through that race for Paul Townend, he jumped super, and he arrived there on the outside at the top of the home straight looking by far the most likely winner. His rider even allowed himself a peak behind to see if there were any dangers there.
As it happened, there weren’t, but there was one in front of him in shape of the teak-tough Liberty Counsel. He just couldn’t get past Dot Love’s mare, as she stuck her head out and battled all the way to the line. Even so, Willie Mullins’ horse lost no caste in going down by just a half a length.
The Irish handicapper raised him 7lb for that run, which wasn’t harsh. However, because today’s race is an early-closing race, he gets to race off his old mark of 134, and that makes him by far the best-handicapped horse in the race. He would have been on or near your shortlist even on his new 7lb higher mark.
Significantly, he was having his first run over fences for Willie Mullins in the Irish National. There is lots of empirical evidence around to support the hypothesis that horses can improve significantly for joining the champion trainer’s ranks, and sure enough, despite looking fairly exposed over hurdles, the son of Stowaway improved from a mark of 105 over the smaller obstacles when he joined Mullins to a mark of 121 now.
He was rated 134 over fences when he arrived at Closutton, and he gets to race off that mark today. He has plenty of scope to progress further even than his new mark of 141.
The ground is obviously going to be a lot faster today than it was at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday, but he won his beginners’ chase on good to firm ground at Tramore, and his only other chase win to date was on good ground at Wexford. The better ground today could even bring about further improvement.
You would ideally like to have Ruby Walsh on board, but you probably shouldn’t read too much into the fact that Ruby stays at Punchestown today. He said yesterday that he had to commit to Punchestown or Sandown early in the week and, with Annie Power an intended runner at the time in the mares’ hurdle at Punchestown, and with the jockeys’ championship still a possibility – albeit a remote one now – it is not at all surprising that he stays close to home.
Declan Lavery is a really good young rider, he is top value for his 5lb claim. That claim means that, actually, Away We Go will only have a total of 10st 6lb on his back, and that is ideal in a race in which six of the last eight winners and 13 of the last 16 carried less than 11st.
The track is obviously an unknown, simply because he has never raced there, but he goes well right-handed – all five of his wins over jumps have been at right-handed tracks – and he should be fine at Sandown.
The main worry is the possibility that this race comes up soon enough after a tough race in the Irish National. Four horses who completed the course in the Irish National have run since, and all four have run poorly. However, you have to think that Willie would not allow him travel if he wasn’t happy that he had recovered, and he has so many other elements in his favour, that the doubt about the race coming up too quickly is worth swallowing at current odds.
All that into the mix, and whatever else you are backing in the race, you really should keep Away We Go on side. He is well worth backing each-way at current odds of 8.6 or 8.8.
The other horse who might be worth backing at a much bigger price is Duke Of Lucca. Philip Hobbs’ horse ran a cracker to finish third in the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton in February on the first occasion on which he encountered good ground since April 2012, and that run gives him a big chance. He was a little disappointing at Aintree last time, but he could never get into a rhythm there on that sharp left-handed track after making an early mistake, and he did stay on well up the home straight.
It is interesting that the trainer fits cheekpieces for the first time today. That should help Tom O’Brien in the early stages of the race. Also, the step up to three miles and five and a half furlongs means that they should be going a stride slower today, and that should help Duke Of Lucca find his rhythm. He had shaped in the Racing Plus Chase as if he wouldn’t mind a greater test of stamina.
Duke Of Lucca is a spring horse. All his best runs have been on good ground in the spring. As such, Hobbs avoided the deep winter ground with him, with the result that he comes into this race fresher than most. More than that, given that Hobbs has won this race twice in the last seven years, and has had six horses placed in the last 10, it is probable that the trainer has had this race in mind for Duke Of Lucca since the start of the season. The son of Milan goes well right-handed, and he looks over-priced at around 20.
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