THE GUINEAS ARE LUCKY FOR SOME: Daqman checks out the paths to the Guineas of winners in the last 20 years and finds a Lucky Seven for the 2,000, with Ballydoyle bets at big value on BETDAQ.
THE DAQMAN MANIFESTO: Look out for Daqman’s collation of his planned betting attack, starting in Guineas week.
CLASS COUNTDOWN: He will also be compiling his famous ABC guides to both the 2,000 and the 1,000, with some surprising results.
The Guineas goes to a colt that’s finished first or second in a so-called trial. But which trial? The last 20 winners have emerged spasmodically from 19 different two-year-old ‘classics’ and early-season three-year-old prep races. I repeat, 19.
In the good old bad old days the Dewhurst winner in England or the National Stakes in Ireland virtually won you six Guineas out of 10.
The Dewhurst (4 winners out of 20) and the National Stakes (3) are still among the top guides for young pretenders to the Newmarket Classic but the Prix Djebel and the Champagne Stakes are close behind.
And the winner has also come from the Acomb Stakes, Anglesey, Beresford Stakes, Craven Stakes, Futurity, Gimcrack, Gran Criterium, Greenham, Killavullan Stakes, Leopardstown 2,000 Trial, Phoenix Stakes, Racing Post Trophy, Salamandre, Railway Stakes, and Royal Lodge.
It all goes to suggest there is a Lucky Seven for next Saturday at Newmarket – not one standout – from which the Guineas winner will come.
They are Dawn Approach (Dewhurst and National Stakes), Olympic Glory (Greenham and Gran Criterium), Toronado (Champagne and Craven), Cristoforo Colombo (Railway), George Vancouver (Dewhurst), Moohaajim (Greenham) and Style Vendome (Prix Djebel).
The question marks for punters betting early in the week are: will Style Vendome travel over from France? Which Aidan O”Brien colt will be their number one?
Ballydoyle’s choice is hard to define this year, with Ladbrokes, who usually know their Irish onions, betting 6-1 Mars (12.0), 7-1 Cristoforo Colombo (11.0) and 12-1 George Vancouver (15.5). BETDAQ offers in brackets.
I’m sure you’ve spotted already that Ladbrokes rate Mars the Ballydoyle front-runner, yet he’s the only colt from the Guineas inner-orbit that is absent from the list of trials.
In fact, Mars hasn’t even raced on turf, only on the Dundalk polytrack. If Ladbrokes are calling this right, he could become the first ever Guineas winner to have raced only on a man-made surface.
The 1,000 Guineas? That’s QI, too. Let’s look at the scores and – oh my, oh my, oh my goodness, as Stephen Fry might say – we find that winners of the first fillies’ Classic were placed in 23 different prominent trials. Yes, 23.
Heading the list, the Cheveley Park Stakes (4), Fred Darling (3), Rockfel (3) and Lowther Stakes (3), closely followed by the Cherry Hinton, Fillies’ Mile, May Hill, Park Stakes, Prix Imprudence, Prix Morny and Robert Papin.
This time it’s a Lucky Twelve, not a lucky seven: Maureen (Cherry Hinton, Princess Margaret Stakes, Dubai Duty Free), Rosdhu Queen (Cheveley Park, Lowther), Agent Allison (Dubai Duty Free), Hot Snap (Nell Gwyn), Just The Judge (Rockfel), Magical Dream (Park Stakes), Rasmeyaa (Flame Of Tara), Roz (Fillies Mile), Sky Lantern (Nell Gwyn), Snow Queen (Leopardstown 1,000 Trial), What A Name (Imprudence), Winning Express (Nell Gwyn, Cheveley Park),
Solves very little, except to say that Moth, Big Break and Viztoria have no fillies’ trial credentials though, oddly enough, Big Break (Kilavullan) and Viztoria (Anglesey) won trials which are in the colts’ list! Oh my, oh my goodness me.
Incidentally, Big Break is the anomaly in the market: 9-1 with one leading firm in the Racing Post list this morning, she is 18.0 in the ante-post orange on BETDAQ. Nothing really changes, does it.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 9pts win TARADREWE (2.20 Huntingdon)
BET 10pts win (nap) OSCARGO (2.40 Ludlow)
BET 8.6pts win FIENDISH FLAME (3.45 Ludlow)
BET 5.7pts win LETSBY AVENUE (4.10 Wetherby)
BET 1.8pts win and place CASTLE CONFLICT (4.20 Ludlow)
BET 1.5pts win and place BILLIE MAGERN (5.05 Huntingdon)
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