THE DAQMAN MANIFESTO: SEVEN GOLDEN RULES: Daqman today launches his manifesto for betting value, which he will support with a new staking strategy which he reveals tomorrow. His tips are at the foot of the column each day.
LOOK OUT TOMORROW: The new betting schedule. WEDNESDAY Applying the new schedule to Ascot, Cheltenham and BETDAQ races at Kempton Park. THURSDAY: 2,000 Guineas ABC; FRIDAY: 1,000 Guineas ABC; SATURDAY and SUNDAY: the season’s first Classics.
The punter has never had it so good. He can take a position on a race, knowing he has several hours, and a myriad of opportunities, to decide whether to lay off the bet, back something else, lay the favourite, or change his mind altogether before or during the actual race.
And, as a BETDAQ man, he’ll be betting in markets which are only a few per cent overround, as close to a level playing-field as you can get, with stakes and pay-out virtually the same overall.
With the bookmaker, Money In may exceed Money Out by up to 48% at SP (Grand National). Even in major handicaps, where BETDAQ sometimes goes into a double-figure overround, the exchange market is in your favour by comparison.
For instance, I was working in 111 and 114% lists of offers in the orange for the two big handicaps at Sandown on Saturday morning: at SP, they added up to 132 and 133%. Ouch!
Your job as an investor has never been easier in this punter-friendly zone. My job is twofold: firstly, to try to find ways of finding or creating an edge in the market, so that you will actually be betting underround.
Secondly, by comparing offers – and maybe setting them alongside bookmaker fixed odds – I will try to reveal ‘value’, prices that must be taken if you are to make money from your betting.
‘Value’ is a word much bandied about. The best way to establish value is this: decide what price a horse should be, and only back it if the offer is bigger.
But only do this ‘pricing up’ after you have sieved and filtered the race for those edges I was talking about, looking for factors which could affect the result or, in some cases, will definitely alter the shape of the race.
Such factors involve hype, the draw, the ground, conditions of the race, race-ratings, trainers in or out of form, the history of the race (stats) and the pace it’s likely to be run at.
Example: If a bookmaker offered you 5-1, the ‘inflation’ of his take-out in the overround probably means it should be 6-1; the ground is wrong and the stable is out of form.. that’s nearer 12-1. Don’t bet; you’re getting only 5-1!
You have plenty of time. As we saw last week, I called up the Sandown Classic trial on the Daq at 8 p.m. the night before and again at 8 a.m. on the morning of the race.
The total percentage probability of the BETDAQ market was 105% on the eve of the race and 102% the following morning.
The lists in the orange on non-handicaps added up to 104%, 107, 105 and 108. I compared that with take-outs by the bookies of up to 153% at the big Punchestown meeting. Half your money’s gone before the race is run!
RULE 1: VALUE RACES In this column, from day to day, I shall compare like with like, and you’ll see the difference for the same races. I shall highlight those races which are the most punter friendly on BETDAQ, with the lowest overround. Some will be commission free, which doubles your bonus!
RULE 2: THE STATS I will apply the factors of stats and the special race conditions, as outlined above, and try to locate the value areas of the race.
RULE 3: KNOWN ABILITY In doing so, I shall vary the strength of my bets according to what I find, relating them to my known ability historically at that meeting in that type of race.
RULE 4: FAVOURITES My main target will be the false favourite. Once identified, you can lay him or you can step up your stakes on a horse, or horses, running against him, because you consider the rest of that market is in your favour.
Example: If the BETDAQ orange adds up to 110% and you take out the 4.0 favourite (that’s 3-1, which equals 25%), you can consider you are betting in an 85% list of offers: in other words, overall, it will pay out 100 to 85 invested.
RULE 5: RATINGS I shall show that official race-ratings (OR) are not all that they seem, and can be misleading. Equally, they can be used to get an edge.
Example: I laid Auroras Encore in the Scottish Grand National. I had shown that a ratings rise for Aintree Grand National winners effectively stopped previous winners in 87 of their subsequent 88 races.
Example: I showed at the Craven meeting how Tickled Pink (official rating 84) could beat Jimmy Styles (109) and six other 100-plus ratings in rear.
And this one: Hot Snap (officially rated 78) first, Sky Lantern (111) second, Winning Express (107) third.
The reasons for the success of Tickled Pink and Hot Snap were largely that they were Improvers, secondly that they were ready when others in the race, at this early stage of the season, were not.
Saturday had an example over jumps: Sire De Grugy (OR 145) beat Finains Rainbow (165) and Wishfull Thinking (162), receiving little or no weight.
Why? At seven he was the likely improver over the next four home, which were aged 10, 10, 11 and 10, respectively. Secondly, the going had changed.
RULE 6: GOING AND DRAW I will try to highlight every day those horses best suited by the ground and I will particularly try to warn of going changes and what they might mean. I will get to the bottom of the draw.
RULE 7: STAKING PLAN I will apply a transparent betting pattern, a staking plan which serves to improve pay-outs, provide a long-term profit and hook on to the value.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.3pts win JAMEEL and 4pts win QUIET WHISPER (3.00 Towcester)
BET 8pts win HENOK, plus 2.3pts win QUAPRILAND (4.30 Towcester)
BET 4.3pts win (nap) WALTZ DARLING (4.40 Kelso)
BET 2.1pts win BELLITUDO (4.50 Wolverhampton)
BET 11pts win DREAM WILD (6.25 Lingfield)
BET 5pts win COUSIN KHEE (7.40 Windsor)
DAQMAN TARGETS: All bets are staked to win 20 points. I need more than one winner to recoup ahead of my new betting rules tomorrow.
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
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Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
