TORONADO TO WIN THE ‘BETDAQ VALUE’ GUINEAS: Whatever you fancy in what the betting says is a two-horse race for the 2,000 Guineas – Toronado (pictured) v Dawn Approach – the sure winner this morning was the BETDAQ punter: Daqman spotted that the exchange was betting to 103% this morning compared with last year’s Total SP of 122%. He’s a Toronado man.
‘LUDICROUS’ 18.5 ‘GOLD’ OFFERS IN THE PALACE HOUSE: In fact, Daqman dubs both big races as ‘ Gold Value’, the Guineas and the Palace House Stakes, which was 108% this morning, as against the 120% SP Total a year ago. He describes 18.5 offers he took this morning as ‘ludicrously wrong’.
READ ALL ABOUT IT! Read about Daqman’s Manifesto for BETDAQ value in the Daqman Library and check out the 2,000 Guineas ABC in the Daqman Archive (Wednesday)
12 WINS AS DAQMAN REMAINS UNBEATEN THIS WEEK: It was only by pennies (1.50 points to be precise) but, with Knox Overstreet (WON 3-1), Daqman yesterday continued in profit for the fifth consecutive day, 116.35 up from 12 winning bets and no losing days in the week so far.
What have these Guineas colts got in common? Adagio, Delegator, Dubawi, Hold That Tiger, One Cool Cat. Can’t remember them? You should. You and I helped make them favourite for the first Classic over the last decade. And they all got stuffed.
Forgotten their names? Well, maybe you remember St Nicholas Abbey and New Approach? Top-class animals – one of them won the Derby – but they, too, were turned over in the 2,000 Guineas.
Only Camelot, Frankel and George Washington have lived up to their billing in the last decade: my simplistic maths says that’s 7-3 against the favourite, which must, in theory therefore, be better than a 3.3 offer if he is to represent anything better than break even.
At 2.44 this morning, Dawn Approach did not. There is the worry about whether a precocious multiple-winner two-year-old was ‘used up’ and whether he has the right credentials on breeding, as described in my Wednesday column (see Daqman Archive).
Even as I write, he has eased to 2.9, more strong support coming in for Toronado.. and my firm-ground fancy Cristoforo Colombo is back out to the offers I took in the first place!
2.05 Newmarket (BETDAQ VALUE RACE) No winning favourite for eight years now; no winner over the age of five in that time; and no win from the ‘rags’ at the bottom of the handicap (8st 10lb the minimum weight carried).
However, William Haggas’s Authorised grey Danchai – goes well fresh – is on a similar mark to the same stable’s winner of this in 2011 which, like Danchai, had just three lifetime runs.
Rye House is back in trip and has needed a run in his two seasons so far, so I am inclined to stay with the seemingly well handicapped among the bottomweights and expect Whispering Warrior to transfer AW form to turf as a real featherweight with Darren Egan’s allowance.
This is a value race (only 103% in the BETDAQ orange) but it should be, with so many potential improvers, so not a race to raise your stakes in: I’ll keep to today’s already ‘above average’ level of 30 points; no jackpot bet.
2.35 Newmarket (BETDAQ GOLD VALUE, Palace House Stakes) With between 12 and 16 runners each time, the last four years has seen the winner come from stalls 2, 3 and 4 (twice).
The winners’ ratings were also from a very tight parameter: 108, 109, 110 and 111. Maybe, if we can add the two stats together, we have the proverbial ‘certainty.’
There is one horse within those parameters, and only one – Bungle Inthejungle – back to the minimum trip after a fine effort over 6f in the Tattersalls Millions at the Craven Meeting.
There’s no such thing as a certainty, though such as Frankel and Black Caviar belied that old adage last season, and there’s not much wrong with the stalls call for Heerat (from 7 and racing off 108) and Sole Power (in 9 off 113) but Pearl Secret (109 in stall 13) and Spirit Quartz (115 in 15) appear to have a hard task on the ‘wrong side’.
Against Sole Power is that older horses have a very poor record in this (1-53 in 10 years), though fast ground is in his favour. Heeraat is on the upgrade but all winners in the decade had already scored in the pattern though, just before that, Kyllachy came on to win this from the same handicap won by Heeraat.
On all known form, the chances of Spirit Quartz and Pearl Secret would be improved if there has been some rain. Pearl Secret, however, is bred to act on top of the ground and he was one of my early birds for a Spring success.
He’s high drawn but it’s always best to have one on ‘the other side’ in case the ground rides that way or the pace dictates. So we’ll have Pearl Secret but aiming for a lower return.
Caledonia Lady, Doc Hay, Elusivity and Angels Will Fall.. these, too, have won only on good ground or with some cut.
Bungle Inthejungle acts on any going and, in his final race of 2012, beat Garswood, giving the Guineas hope 3lb. Plainly the 18.5 this morning on BETDAQ was ludicrously wrong.
2.55 Goodwood The Confessor’s form at Goodwood is 313 and he has won before on his reappearance. He’s likely to do go well again on this first run back, since the Henry Candy yard is in such good form.
If you want to know the horse’s nature, have a look at his CD win, a thoroughly game performance, in which he clearly wants his head in front. I usually bet win and place only on big-odds outsiders but the 2.44 place offers I see in the Place Orange here will act as stakes saver for my win bet.
3.30 Goodwood I’m having two 15-point bets today: Duke of Firenze is the first; he looks very well treated in this and Kieren Fallon has missed some decent mounts – including Basseterre – at Newmarket to ride.
3.50 Newmarket (BETDAQ GOLD VALUE, 2,000 Guineas) I’m glad I didn’t spend the ‘overs’ from my 14.0 Cristoforo Colombo (in to 9-1 at one stage) as they are no longer there! He was out to 14.5 this morning as the Guineas became a two-horse race.
I’ve said a hundred times: this year is this year; last year is last, when it comes to dealing with three-year-olds.
And that shouts – as do the stallion stats – the Richard Hannon Craven Stakes winner Toronado, on the grounds that he’s done it this year, all the more a pointer to today because that race was also run on a sound surface.
The race is Gold Value as I write, with 103% in the orange on BETDAQ and my opposition to the favourite, but how long that will last I don’t know, as Toronado comes in and Dawn Approach eases yet again, albeit fractionally, to 2.91 at the time of writing.
Guineas 1-2-3: Toronado, Dawn Approach, Cristoforo Colombo.
11.24 Churchill Downs (Kentucky Derby) I’m reducing my stake to win 20 points because I don’t know many of these, but I do know that Goldencents is reckoned better than last year’s winner from the same yard. Will he act on the sloppy ground?
DAQMAN’S BETS
VALUE BET: 5.5pts win DANCHAI 4pts win WHISPERING WARRIOR and 1.6pts win (all-stakes saver) RYE HOUSE (2.05 Newmarket)
GOLD-VALUE BET: WIN-50 JACKPOT: 2.5pts win and place BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE; WIN-30 5.3pts win PEARL SECRET and 2.5pts win (all-stakes saver) HEERAAT (2.35 Newmarket)
BET 5.3pts win and 3.7pts place (win-stakes saver) THE CONFESSOR (2.55 Goodwood)
GOLD-VALUE BET: WIN-30 JACKPOT 15pts win TORONADO and (already ante-post) WIN-40 3pts CRISTOFORO COLOMBO at 14.0 ante-post (3.50 Newmarket)
BET 15pts win (nap) DUKE OF FIRENZE (3.30 Goodwood)
BET (win 20 points) 2.4pts win GOLDENCENTS (11.24 Churchill Downs)
DAQMAN TARGETS
This is an above-average day, with bets staked to win 30 points (except the Kentucky Derby) but with some races at jackpot level, staked to win 40 or 50. A VALUE race is where the total probability of BETDAQ offers this morning were below 110%. GOLD VALUE is where Daqman opposes the favourite in such a low-overround race.
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