Rafael Nadal confirmed his dominance on a clay court this past week in Madrid as he secured his 23rd ATP World Tour Masters 1000 trophy and his third Mutua Madrid Open. His tally of clay court titles now stands at a staggering forty and only trails Guillermo Vilas by six. 6/5 shot Nadal brushed aside one of the form players on the tour in Stanislas Wawrinka with a 6-2 6-4 win in just under 72 minutes. Having masterminded Robin Soderling’s defeat of Nadal at Roland Garros in 2009, Wawrinka’s new coach Magnus Norman must’ve hoped he could work his magic on his new man. It wasn’t to be however as Nadal broke in the very first game and never really looked back.
Nadal was this column’s sixth winning selection of the season and the second at Madrid in as many years, having tipped Roger Federer in 2012 at a juicier 10/1. Nadal was also a winning selection in Rome twelve months ago and it is the Italian Capital where we head to over the next seven days.
ATP Rome
The Internazionali BNL d’Italia is the second ATP 1000 event to be played on clay in as many weeks and could be one final chance for the game’s top players to find that vital piece of form before the year’s second Grand Slam at the French Open. Admittedly players have the opportunity to get some more matches under their belts in Düsseldorf and Nice next week but the tendency for the real contenders for Paris in a fortnight’s time is to take some time out after this week, recharge their batteries and make sure they’re 100%. Rafael Nadal comes into the tournament in quite outstanding form and I loathe to desert him this week at yet another attractive price. 12 months ago Nadal was the champion at a pre-tournament price of evens so to see him available at a similar price to last week has made me sit up and take notice. Of course there will be reservations that he mightn’t be in great condition and wouldn’t do anything to jeopardise his chances at Roland Garros but aside from a tussle against fellow Spaniard David Ferrer in Madrid last week, you’d have to say he appeared to come through the tournament unscathed. Djokovic was able to complete the Madrid/Rome double back-to-back in 2011 to show it can be done and Nadal himself did the Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Rome treble in 2009 so I’m personally not too concerned with fatigue.
After Djokovic’s defeat to Grigor Dimitrov in Madrid, the Serbian suggested the loss was down to lack of preparation due to an ankle problem he sustained on duty with his country during a Davis Cup match. Indeed Djokovic received treatment on the same ankle midway through the second set against Dimitrov but refused to blame the defeat on his injury, instead choosing to congratulate Dimitrov on the win. Photographs emerged late-Friday or early-Saturday of Djokovic practising in the Italian sunshine so rest assured Djokovic is eager to right some wrongs from a fairly poor Madrid.
For me, I wouldn’t be any more concerned about any potential fatigue surrounding Nadal than I would be over lack of form or lack of conditioning about Djokovic and it would seem the only man that can live with Rafa over the course of a match on the dirt is Novak and the final in Monte Carlo aside, I just haven’t seen enough to make me think Djokovic could repeat that feat in Rome this week. Additionally, Djokovic’s draw isn’t a kind one. To make it to the semi finals alone (where he’d probably face Nadal), he’ll probably need to beat Stanislas Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych before even getting there and that looks a tall order. Nadal on the other hand should have a smoother route through. The seeded players in his quarter don’t inspire much confidence at the present time. Janko Tipsarevic is out of form, Milos Raonic has recently parted company with his coach, and David Ferrer appears to have a sort of mental block when he comes up against his countryman. For that reason, a 100% fit Nadal should make the last four at the very least.
The opposite side of the draw is a very interesting one. Juan Martin Del Potro makes a comeback having not played since a defeat to Jarkko Nieminen in Monte Carlo so could be a little rusty, Andy Murray doesn’t have a great record against ‘top ten’ players on clay, and Roger Federer appears to be struggling for the consistency that we’ve all taken for granted for the best part of a decade. This section of the draw could potentially cut up quite badly and open up for one the bigger priced outsiders. Nadal at 6/5 or 11/10 perhaps isn’t everyone’s idea of a bet so if you’re looking for a spot of value that could involve a bit of trading, I’ve seen worse 100/1 shots than Richard Gasquet. At the time of writing, Gasquet has already beaten Sam Querrey 6-2 7-6 in round one and moves on to face Grigor Dimitrov. It could be a big ask for Dimitrov to go deep twice in two weeks, especially when you consider the cramping he endured against Djokovic last week. As I say though, a triple-figure price about a man who’s won two titles in 2013 and who has reached both the quarter and semi finals in Rome looks a little on the big side and I’ll be cheering (and backing) both Nadal and Gasquet over the next week.
Selection #1: Rafael Nadal
Selection #2: Richard Gasquet
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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