BMW PGA Championship
The European Tour’s flagship event gets underway on Thursday with Luke Donald the BETDAQ favourite to be crowned the winner for a third successive season, attempting to emulate Colin Montgomerie who achieved a three-peat in 2000.
Wentworth’s West Course has been the permanent home to the PGA Championship since 1984. A par 72, 7,302 yards, Wentworth requires accuracy and length off the tee, as the fairways are narrow but the layout long – especially if it rains.
Length off the tee is somewhat open to question, as Donald, who is not one of the biggest hitters, has blasted that theorem into the rough by his successive victories.
The last six holes were altered slightly before Monty won the last of his trio of titles, making the run-in even tougher. The last two holes are both par fives so the outcome of the tournament can rest on those holes. The greens have subtle contours and, when the sun shines, can be firm and fast.
Punters should not be looking for a first-time winner here but an experienced pro who has a knowledge of the course and knows a thing or two about winning.
Montgomerie was almost unbeatable at the Surrey course at the turn of the century – he finished outside the top 10 once in the years 1990 to 2001. He’s well past his prime and is available at 705.0 with BETDAQ. The only downside is that he won’t be in the TV studio this weekend. His analysis on Sky, who do a fantastic job with their golf coverage, is always insightful.
Likewise, Ernie Els is a regular at this tournament. He has a house at Wentworth but strangely has never won this particular tournament on his home course (although he was a multiple winner of the World Matchplay tournament when it was held here until 2007). Els, who has made this course more difficult with a dramatic redesign to favour ‘thinkers’ and ball strikers, is available at 54.0 with BETDAQ. He is one of 14 Major winners in the field.
The course will probably play tougher than last year, as strong winds are expected before the cut on Saturday.
Winning back-to-back titles here is rare and there is every reason to think that Donald is too short at current odds. The jingoistic British media have obviously played their part in promoting the World No.6 but it cannot have gone unnoticed that after a slow start to the year, Donald has recently been threatening to gain his long-overdue first victory of 2013. A T4 at the Tampa Bay Championship, a T3 at Harbour Town and two rounds in the 60s and a T19 in the Players Championship would have done wonders for his confidence. However, we’d be taking him on rather than backing him, as he is simply too short at 9.4.
Another whom can be taken on is Sergio Garcia at 18.5. The Spaniard is competing in the BMW PGA Championship for the first time since 2000 when he finished T5 behind Montgomerie (the course played considerably shorter at 7,047 yards), will find the changes perhaps not to his liking. Long off the tee and playing well, it will be interesting to see if he can put his Tin Cup moment at Sawgrass behind him quickly. The feeling is he won’t have any problem mentally, but Wentworth is not, so he says, among his favourite courses.
So where do we look for the likely winner in one of the strongest PGA Championship fields for years?
Rory McIlroy @ 12.0
Rory McIlroy, with four top 10 finishes in his seven tournaments since withdrawing from the Honda Classic – including his second place in the Valero Texas Open – is an excellent ball striker and currently sits seventh in the PGA list in that category. With his length off the tee and his imagination around the greens, he continues to put himself in great positions to make birdies. But his putting has really let him down at times, although statistically, he is a creditable 25th in putting per hole. His course form is not great – in the last three years he has finished 48-T24-MC. But he has done well here in the past, shooting 10-under for a fifth-place finish in 2009.
The fairways are generous at Wentworth, so McIlroy’s inconsistency off the tee – he is 113th in driving accuracy – may be masked somewhat, yet there is no doubt his swing still needs to be refined – it is not as smooth as you would want for a player who is such a short price in a good field. Yet if you look at his greens in regulation (GIR) percentage, he cannot be ruled out, as he is fifth in this category. Yes, it takes a bit of a leap in faith to back the young man from Northern Ireland on a track that does not appear to play to his strengths. But he is starting to find that consistency in his game and that can only mean trouble for his rivals.
Justin Rose @ 12.5
The one stat you need to take a close look at is Total Driving and Rose, currently No.4 in the world, ranks second in this category. Forget his missed cut at Sawgrass. Rose had three top 10 finishes before The Masters and shot 12-under in New Orleans before a jitter in Jacksonville. His form at Wentworth in this tournament reads 10-MC-2 in the last three seasons and his second-place last year showed he has the all-round game to master this tricky track. With a decent GIR percentage (11th) and putting down plenty of birdies per round (13th), you cannot rule out one of the purest ball strikers in the game.
Branden Grace @ 50.0
With his first trip to Wentworth last year heralding a T5 finish, there’s plenty to like about the South African, including his price. He looks a back-to-lay steal. Grace was a creditable T18 at Augusta and last week returned to something like his best form, reaching the semi-finals of the World Matchplay Championship. He currently lies 29th in driving distance on the European Tour (38th on the US Tour) and length off the tee will be a factor. But what sets him apart from many of his rivals is that he is a tremendous links player and with the wind expecting to gust at Wentworth, his game should hold up well.
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 60.0
The Dane opened 67-66-67 at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic but could only come up with a final-round 71 to T3, five shots behind winner Stephen Gallacher, finished seventh at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in his first career start at Bay Hill, and finished T6 at the Masters Tournament in his first career start at Augusta National. Olesen’s length off the tee will be an asset. Like Grace, he is a good links player and can deal with the vagaries of windy conditions. Given his Major record – two top 10s from four starts – don’t rule him out of a strong showing at the Open Championship.
Paul Lawrie @ 70.0
The former Open champion finished four shots behind Donald last year. Any chance Lawrie had of victory disappeared after a bogey on the 13th, where he pulled his drive and was over the green in three. But he finished with a flourish with a birdie on the 18th to seal a final round of 66. Oddly enough he finished 14th in the Volvo China Open last season before a strong week at Wentworth – and if you are looking for omens, the Scot finished 14th in this year’s Volvo China Open. Add to that his 6th here in 2010, and you have another back-to-lay trade possibility.
Crowne Plaza Invitational
The US Tour heads to Colonial Country Club in Forth Worth, Texas, on Thursday. This par-70, 7,204 yards favours accuracy, as any player who is a little wild with the driver will not succeed.
Experience of playing this course is essential. Golfers need to know where to put the ball on the fairway. A good looking shot might be aimed at the wrong part of the fairway, making a birdie chance impossible. Players also have to move the ball both ways.
The greens are small and are harder than they were a few years ago, so players find it tougher to keep their iron shots on the putting surface. Players who rank high in GIR stats invariably prosper.
Zach Johnson is the defending champion and he has won here on two of his last three visits. Just for good measure, he’s finished in the top 10 on another four starts at Colonial. His T19 at The Players on his last start was his best form for a while, so that can be taken two ways: he’s either hitting form, or it was a flash in the pan. He is too short a price at 16.5 in a very strong field to chance.
Charl Schwartzel is a rookie in this event, but current form means he’s a worthy favourite. He was tipped in this column last week at 21.0 and wasn’t far away from winning the Byron Nelson Classic, so would have rewarded back-to-lay punters.
What is off-putting is his accuracy off the tee. He ranks 125th in driving accuracy and while that is negated somewhat by ranking a respectable 35th in GIR, given that this is his first taste of Colonial, he can readily be opposed. Experience pays. It is perhaps worth noting that no player under the age of 35 won this tournament in the 1990s. With this in mind, here are our five to follow:
Jim Furyk @ 26.0
Furyk has made 13 of 17 cuts at Colonial, made the top 10 seven times (he is on offer at 3.0 to do so again), with two runner-up efforts and a fourth place last year. The veteran clearly knows this course well and he is sure to give another good account.
Henrik Stenson @ 30.0
For a man hitting the best GIR percentage and three top 10s from eight events on the US Tour and a T5 at The Players Championship, why is the Swede is such a big price? Partly it is the travelling between the European Tour and America. Having played at last week’s Volvo World Matchplay in Bulgaria, this could be a journey too far. But our man-crush on Stenson and his continued good form means we can’t get away from him this week, despite his missed cut last year.
Chris Kirk @ 50.0
The trend on this course is upwards, improving from T74 to T16 and last year T5. He has not missed a cut since January and has six top 25s from 12 starts this season, with two top 10s. His putting has been excellent (ranking ninth in Par 4 Birdie or Better category) and is 21st in birdie average. His price is fair for a player who is having a solid season.
Ryan Moore @ 60.0
After a career year in 2012 that saw him win for the second time and post eight top-10s, a lot was expected of Moore this season. But it has yet to really happen for the UNLV product. Two top 10 finishes are blotted by four missed cuts, the latest coming in The Players Championship. Yet just a week before, he finished T6 in the Wells Fargo Championship. Two cuts and a T26 last year from his last three starts at Colonial hardly inspire too much confidence, but he’s due a bounce back and it may well be here.
David Toms @ 106.0
For our final pick, we could have taken a chance on David Lingmerth at a massive 178.0 in the hope that he carries over his good form from The Players. But in the end, we plumped for Toms, who won this event in 2011 but missed the cut as defending champion. That was only his second missed cut from 14 starts here and his course CV includes a second, third and fourth. Though he has only had one top 25 finish this season, course form and veteran savvy cannot be ignored.
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