Over the last eighteen months, I’ve found that columns are a lot easier to put together when there’s been a winner during the previous week and that’s exactly what happened in Dusseldorf on Sunday. Highlighted just seven short days ago, Argentinian wildcard Juan Monaco swept all before him to take the Power Horse Cup of 2013. 4/1 Monaco didn’t drop a set the entire week and although he made some of his matches more difficult than perhaps he should have done, it was a decent week’s work for ‘Pico’ as he secured his eighth ATP World Tour title and his second in Germany, following his victory in Hamburg during 2012.
Over in Nice, it’s a case of what might have been as 50/1 selection Edouard Roger-Vasselin was seen off by eventual champion Albert Montanes in the last four. Veteran Montanes made the most of benefiting from the withdrawal of top seed Tomas Berdych by winning his sixth ATP World Tour title and it comes as no surprise to learn that all have come on his favoured clay. Roger-Vasselin must see Nice as an opportunity spurned as losing finalist Gael Monfils failed to fire during Sunday’s final and could have ultimately been a winnable match. Nevertheless, Monaco’s win was pleasure enough at a respectable price and continues the momentum as we head into the year’s second Grand Slam at Roland Garros which commences on Sunday morning.
French Open
Any major tournament on the men’s professional tennis circuit that is played on clay courts will more than likely have Rafael Nadal at the head of the market and the 2013 French Open is no exception. At the time of writing, Nadal trades at 1.85 on BETDAQ and whilst on the skinny side, is probably about right under the circumstances. Since his comeback from knee issues, Nadal has a 2013 match record of 36-2 which has seen him lift six trophies in a shade under four months. Quite the comeback from the king of clay. To put into some kind of perspective the dominance that Nadal has enjoyed at the French Open, he’s won the title every year he’s taken part, with 2009 being the only occasion this hasn’t happened (Robin Soderling winning in four extraordinary sets). Still, 52 wins and seven championships later makes it easy to understand why Rafa comes into the fortnight as an overwhelming favourite and will take all the beating. One thing we know for sure is that two week’s on Sunday won’t be the Nadal/Djokovic final that many might have expected. Both players find themselves in the same half of the draw and on all known form should meet in the semi finals. One would have to favour Nadal in that particular encounter but it seems difficult to envisage an alternative semi final. It’s for that reason I feel we should look within the bottom half of the draw where an opportunity has surely presented itself to a player who won’t have to face either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal until the final.
David Ferrer (pictured) must be absolutely elated to find he’s avoided both Nadal and Djokovic until the final at the very earliest. It’s fair to say Ferrer doesn’t hold an attractive head-to-head record against the pair (19-4 against Nadal and 10-5 against Djokovic) and as a result I expect the Spaniard to take full advantage. At 31, Ferrer won’t have too many more cracks at winning one of the four majors and Roland Garros is the one he’s most likely to win. 2012 saw Ferrer turn in his best performance in reaching the last four and I’m of the opinion he can go one (and hopefully two) better this year. Relative to some of his rivals, Ferrer has been handed a fair draw . He shouldn’t encounter too many problems against Australian Marinko Matosevic in round one and should have too much in the tank for a weary Albert Montanes in round two. A potential third round encounter with a compatriot looks to be on the cards with either Marcel Granollers or Feliciano Lopez, which could leave a fourth round match against a big server in either Milos Raonic or Kevin Anderson. Personally speaking, I’d be disappointed if Ferrer wasn’t strong enough to see off the aforementioned players and if he does, there’s no guarantee he’d face the highest ranked player in the last eight. Tomas Berdych who is seeded at number five has been dealt a tricky looking draw and could struggle to see off home favourite Gael Monfils, enigmatic yet talented Latvian Ernests Gulbis, and another adept clay courter in Nicolas Almagro before even getting a chance against Ferrer. Whoever emerges from that section will surely have had to work hard for their place in the quarter finals and my hope is that plays into the hands of Ferrer who’s passage through will hopefully be slightly more serene.
If my summary of the tournament above goes to plan, semi final one will consist of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. The second semi final will hopefully see David Ferrer take on a player from the bottom quarter of the Men’s Singles draw and I’ll attempt to throw up a name or two that could take that final spot. A section that may have contained Juan Martin Del Potro and/or Andy Murray had it not been for injury, Roger Federer must be licking his chops at the prospect of going deep in yet another French Open. Likely names that could throw up a few issues are Dusseldorf champion Juan Monaco and Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in his own backyard but Federer cannot face either until the last eight. The seeded players within Federer’s section include Gilles Simon, Sam Querrey, and Julien Benneteau and I have to think that a Roger Federer at the top of his game should be good enough to emerge from his quarter. For that reason and by process of elimination, the semi finals should have a Nadal/Djokovic and Ferrer/Federer look about them. If only things were that easy!
At 25 with BETDAQ, Ferrer represents value about a player who should be reaching his second French Open semi final in as many years and should trade shorter should he get there. It came as no surprise to me to see Roger Federer’s price contract once the draw had been made, particularly as he’s avoided the ‘big two’ until the final at the very earliest. He’s probably still value at 14 but when 20 was readily available a couple of days back, one can’t help but feel that ship may have sailed. In conclusion, I fully expect either Ferrer or Federer to be one of the last two standing and should either advance to the final, their prices will no longer be at 25 or 14 respectively.
In terms of match betting, one of the players I’ll be opposing is Janko Tipsarevic. Woefully short of form and far from comfortable on a clay court, Tipsarevic finds himself up against Frenchman Nicolas Mahut who will no doubt be supported by a typically vocal French crowd. Mahut himself isn’t at home on the dirt and will no doubt show some better form on the grass next month. He had some decent wins in Paris last year against the likes of Andy Roddick and Martin Klizan, as well as pinching a set off Roger Federer during the same year and will be encouraged by the support he’ll receive on likely one of the show courts at Roland Garros. 1.22 is a quite horrible price on Tipsarevic and should be avoided. Mahut on the other hand at around 5.0 is much more appealing and could trade far shorter in a topsy-turvy encounter. Elsewhere, Marcel Granollers could be vulnerable at 1.57 against Feliciano Lopez, Alexandr Dolgopolov at 1.24 against Dmitry Tursunov (who beat David Ferrer earlier this year on clay) looks a little on the short side, and it could be argued that the 1.21 about Benoit Paire could be an overreaction to the Frenchman’s run in Rome and when you consider Marcos Baghdatis has been around the block a few times and not lost a first round match at Roland Garros for the last three years, there’s certainly potential for some upsets in that trio of matches. Either way, the next fourteen days should allow us to witness some heavy-hitting, energy-sapping tennis on the biggest clay court stage of them all and I for one cannot wait for it all to get started…
Selection: David Ferrer @ 25
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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