DAQMAN IN SEVENTH HEAVEN ON DERBY DAY: Daqman made it seven winning naps in a row yesterday with banker-status stakes on St Nicholas Abbey (WON 30-100) in an amazing sequence capped by two out of two at the Derby meeting, with Gregorian at 3-1 on the first day. The seven up for a profit of 96 points are:
Sir John Hawkins WON 2-1
Madam Quilla WON 15-8
Presto Volante WON 6-4
Defendant WON 4-7
Alcaeus WON 1-2
Gregorian WON 3-1
St Nicholas Abbey (WON 30-100)
THAT MAKES SEVEN BANKERS UP OUT OF EIGHT: St Nicholas Abbey was the seventh winning maximum-stakes banker from eight this year, the only loser being a favourite found to be ‘not right’ after the race. The seven up for a profit of 56 points are:
Chatterbox (WON 5-4)
Simonsig (WON 1-7)
Sprinter Sacre (WON 1-4)
Annie Power (WON 4-11)
Toronado (WON 8-11)
Liber Nauticus (WON 4-6)
St Nicholas Abbey (WON 30-100)
HE DARED TO LAY DAWN APPROACH: Daqman laid the Derby favourite, Dawn Approach (for another seven out of eight sequence), and today tries to follow up his French Guineas win with Sky Vendome with two bets in the French Derby at Chantilly.
First Ballydoyle thought Mars was best then Battle Of Marengo. What chance has the punter got, if connections have it wrong? The answer is that the punter doesn’t have the same target.
The punter’s target is not the glory of owner or trainer, winning the world’s greatest race, but the best of the chances expressed as odds.
I curse the pace of the race – it was slow – or I might have collected big time on the stayers Libertarian (2nd 14-1) and Galileo Rock (3rd 25-1) but I would have done so at the 21.0 and 42.0 I took on BETDAQ.
I was betting in a list of offers totaling around 105% when the SP Total was 117%, a theoretical take-out of 17% of your winnings if you were with the bookies. In the ‘Dash’ the Total SP was a staggering 128%.
Well done that man McClean and – since our sport is gambling – I’d love to say I’ll take you on again, Donn, in the Irish Derby and St Leger. At face value, on yesterday’s result, yes.
But this beast Ruler Of The World (I’m sorry I didn’t like the look of him) didn’t race until April and who knows what further improvement in him. Or from Libertarian.
And that’s what it’s all been about. In the Ballydoyle run-up to the Derby, Mars was clearly showing in front at one stage, Battle Of Marengo at a later stage.
Meanwhile, Ruler Of The World was matured by that modest Chester Vase success (also in a slow time) and even Pricewise and others who had nipped in for the 33-1 two days beforehand would not have been happy as an unimpressed Ladbrokes (14-1) fielded against the winner of a race with zero substance.
I didn’t ‘nip in’. I should have done. So should you. Because it’s them prices you’re after! At 33-1, he could have been – indeed was – the one.
Don’t worry that you’ll need several more bets. Because the layers make more mistakes: look how they scoffed at Libertarian, didn’t consider Galileo Rock. Massive offers on BETDAQ in that punter-friendly orange.
Today you are asked to do it all again (but too late to ‘nip in’ ante-post): the French Derby could well contain the same trap, the unknown rise of a late developer after the bad winter.
The difference is that, at Chantilly, you are not so much trying to judge each horse for stamina, because the French Derby is run at our Eclipse distance of 1m 2f.
Final thought: think ourselves lucky we were not in Jim Bolger’s shoes, being obliged to run a beautifully streamlined Usain Bolt in the stamina test of hill climbing and camber barging called Epsom.
As ever, gentleman Jim was philosophical before the event; whatever happened in the Derby, he’d still have a champion miler. We’ll see, Jim: we’ll see what late developers there are!
3.15 Chantilly (Prix Du Jockey Club, French Derby) The trouble with statistics is that you can make them work several ways. You could say that high numbers have won five of the last nine French Derbys (the one other in the decade was a small field).
Or you could say that 20 out of 36 places in the nine years went to horses drawn in single figures. It depends what you mean by high – where’s your cut-off point; I included stall 10 which has won twice – and it depends WHICH single figures.
The low-drawn winners came from stalls 4 (twice), 5 and 7, but gates 1, 2 and 3 were nine times in the frame without being able to win.
Alain de Royer-Dupre has been responsible for the winner six times, going back to 1984, but his runner, Shikarpour, has had only one race in his life.
Even by Ruler Of The World standards that’s probably not enough. He’s had three weeks to improve from a maiden in which the Racing Post ratings gave the runner-up only 85, which is behind the ‘latest RP ratings’ on the day for 33 of the runners at Musselburgh yesterday!
He looks well drawn if, after my juggling those stalls numbers, you think, as I do, that you need to be between three and eight horses off the rail.
That seems to improve the hopes of gentleman Jim, himself. Bolger’s Loch Garman, in stall 5, was closing down Battle Of Marengo first time back when they met in the Leopardstown Derby Trial, whereas ‘Marengo’ had already raced (and won).
Loch Garman has ground today similar to that which saw him win twice as a juvenile but, though as low as 7-1 in the Oddschecker list of 15 bookmakers this morning, was 11.0 on BETDAQ.
The French favourite, Intello, saddled by their champion Andre Fabre, has a decent draw in 10, as we’ve seen, and three-wins-in-a-row Sky Hunter (offered at 8.4) is adjacent to him in 9.
The Aga Khan’s Rouget-trained Dalwari is much shorter with Ladbrokes (7-1) than anywhere else, despite a 16 draw, but is offered at 16.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
Stablemate Morandi (stall 3), a grey son of Holy Roman Emperor, and a very easy winner last season, caught the eye, staying on after being tightened up.
Ocovango didn’t do an awful lot for the Bravodino form yesterday but we are comparing that hill climb at the Epsom rave with today’s sophisticated flat-track glam party at Chantilly.
The focus on maturing types leads to those raced four times at most, of which Loch Garman, Sky Hunter and Intello are all well drawn. After yesterday’s third string from Ballydoyle became the Ruler, I shall back the Fabre second string, Sky Hunter, along with Loch Garman and save on his first choice, Intello, much too short for a proper bet at a general 9-4.
Having tipped the French Guineas winner, Sky Vendome, I have a reputation to maintain in Paris (or did I lose that one night at the Crazy Horse).
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points each)
BET 2.7pts win SKY HUNTER, 2pts win LOCH GARMAN and 2.35pts win (stakes saver) INTELLO (3.15 Chantilly)
BET 4.3pts win (nap) ZAMA ZAMA (3.30 Fakenham)
BET 3pts win COMPTON BLUE (4.15 Southwell)
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