DAQMAN MONDAY YANKEE: Is Mars on the ascendancy? Can you back son of Sea The Stars? What’s the best bet of the day and why? As ever, Daqman has a different slant on the day’s racing with bets at three meetings and a yankee to try to lift the Monday blues after a weekend of two Derbys. He had second and third in one and a winning saver in the other.
Blame Sea The Stars if you lost money on Dawn Approach. Stars made it look so easy, from 7f to 1m 4f, from firm ground to soft-heavy. Such a colt comes along once in a lifetime yet creates an expectation that has racing fans begging for more immediately.
But it’s just not that easy, not even to step up by a couple of furlongs; certainly not to go from the straight course at Newmarket to the Epsom big dipper in Group-1 company.
The flipside of the coin is that maybe we now appreciate more than ever the Sea The Stars of the equine world who’ve been and gone and done it.
Next punting culture trap: the unlucky horse. The majority vote from today’s Racing Post jury is for Mars in the Derby (‘repeatedly denied a run’, ‘got checked’ and ‘caught the eye of many an astute judge’).
Well, this judge they call Daqman, sometimes astute, sometimes not, has two quibbles with all that: didn’t I read after the Guineas ‘never travelled’, ‘unlucky late run,’ and ‘would be placed for sure if the race were run a fortnight later.’
Mars has had only three races and, like many a late developer, may make a name for himself and win headlines like ‘Mars Is On Another Planet’ even.
But not with my money. Horses that have ‘never travelled’, ‘unlucky’ and ‘hampered’ in their CVs more than once have me worried that they have their own ideas, caused their own trouble, are happier playing follow-my-leader, or merely ran through tired horses at the finish.
The second quibble – I did say two – is that John Magnier told the Channel-4 team quite clearly: ‘We thought Mars was the one, then Battle Of Marengo.’
This implies that Mars had gone backwards at home, certainly relative to Battle Of Marengo and the one who finally came out on top, Ruler Of The World.
Bramshill Lass (4.30 Chepstow today) carries the double stigma of more than once hampered in her run (‘not clear run’ and ‘carried left’) and at the same time attempting a trip which has so far seemed beyond her.
We’re not talking quality horses in quality competition but, to some extent, the same rules apply.
I’m asking for trouble picking one horse out as an example – she may be the exception that proves the rule – but Bramshill Lass won’t get any of my money as favourite as I write, even though her stable has been in very good form.
Though she’s been placed at 1m 4f and 2m, her success so far has come at a maximum trip of 1m 3f.
Normally, I would add the rider that she is likely to improve at only four years of age. But 22 career runs with zero success on turf confirms my opinion that she is a lay.
The snag with dissing a horse, unless in a contest of quality, or at least of a competitive nature, is that you may be struggling to find anything else in the race.
But Kashgar seems well fancied, and Clappers and Lucky Diva have both won stayers’ races; plus we have a course specialist in the line-up.
Though Tony Carroll’s grey is eight now, and was behind Bramshill Lass at Lingfield, Vertueux’s form in class 5 or 6 events on today’s galloping track is 21102. I could get 9.8 on BETDAQ at the time of writing.
The difference between 5f and 6f is bigger than it seems. And dropping back to 6f from 7f is equally tricky unless you are guaranteed a good pace: connections of Harrison George (7.30 Windsor) know it’s possible but not certain. At least he’s got some cut in the ground; that may help.
Esprit De Midas and Spirit Of Shajah are also in the same boat, 7f horses these days, while Steps is the one trying to go up a furlong.
Dungannon (7.0) and Steps (a huge 17.5 this morning) are not easy to win with but both have performed in better company than this at class-2 level.
The nap is Tinghir (3.15 Leicester), highly regarded at David Lanigan’s. Entered at Royal Ascot, whereas his principal opponent in the market, The Queen’s Bold Sniper, is hooded and only hopeful – easy to back this morning – and his future entries are in handicaps.
Bold Sniper’s trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, not only saddles one for Her Majesty today but sends out the first runner for sire Sea The Stars (Juvenile Lead, 2.15 Leicester). That’s where I came in.
But one last word: A certain chap called Cecil, who so carefully handled a ball of fire called Frankel, must have looked on bemused as they pitched Dawn Approach beyond his comfort zone.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 8.3pts win (nap) TINGHIR (3.15 Leicester)
BET 5.5pts win CROESO MAWR (4.00 Chepstow)
LAY 10pts BRAMSHILL LASS and BET 2.2pts win VERTUEUX (4.30 Chepstow)
BET 3.3pts win DUNGANNON, 1.25pts win and place STEPS (7.30 Windsor)
DAQ MULTIPLES YANKEE: Juvenile Lead (2.15 Leicester), Tinghir (3.15 Leicester), Croeso Mawr (4.00 Chepstow) and Mince (7.00 Windsor)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS: Singles are each to win 20 points. The lay and the multiples are staked as stated.
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