River Highlands, in Cromwell, Connecticut, is not at all typical of a TPC venue. This par 70, 6,841-yard course, which plays host to the Travelers Championship, has only two par fives. But while it may not appear to be long, there are some brutal par fours that will put pressure on the shorter hitters.
Bunkers are plentiful and a lot of the greens are smaller than usual. They are also raised, making them into a scrambler’s delight. Many shots that look good will scoot off the putting surfaces – getting up and down is essential – but players who figure highly in the Greens In Regulation (GIR) statistics usually do well.
Unlike Merion, where Justin Rose won the U.S. Open last week, there are sure to be plenty of birdies and scoring should be a lot easier than it was at the Philadelphia course. That said, Marc Leishman’s 14-under-par score last year was the highest winning score since Woody Austin won at 10-under in 2004. Kenny Perry’s 22-under in 2009 is the tournament scoring record.
Another factor is the crowd. With galleries over 100,000 over the four days, successful players must be able to handle the boisterous crowd. And let’s be honest, there isn’t much else to cheer in Connecticut, as any follower of UConn’s Huskies College Football team will tell you.
Traders must also be aware that 61-year history, there have been 20 playoffs – and on 20 other occasions only one shot has separated the winner from his nearest rival.
It is also worth noting that there have been plenty of low scores posted on the final day. So there could be plenty of trading opportunities on Sunday – and it is not uncommon for big-priced winners to come out of the pack and claim the prize, which is a cool $1.1 million.
For instance, last year Leishman (pictured) shot a final-round eight-under-par 62 to win by a stroke. In 2010, Bubba Watson trailed by six strokes heading into Sunday, but his final-round 66 was enough to get him into a three-way playoff, which he won. In 2005, Brad Faxon shot a course record 61 on the final day. Three years earlier, Phil Mickelson went 66-64 over the weekend and came from five shots down on the Sunday to win, following up his 2001 victory, where a final-round career-best 61 was good enough for a one-stroke victory.
The message is clear: don’t count your pennies until the last putt is struck.
Of the 156 players in the 2013 field, 76 are Tour winners. But bettors take note: five of the last seven winners of the Travelers Championship were winning a Tour event for the first time, including Leishman, who broke his duck by holding off one of the strongest fields in tournament history.
Yet again, the line-up is a great one, with newly crowned U.S. Open winner Rose heading the field at 17.0. Last year’s winner is available at 60.0, but repeat winners are rare and it has been 11 years since Mickelson successfully defended his title.
Rose will no doubt be on a high after last weekend’s stunning victory. The question in his own mind will be: did he win the U.S. Open… or did others simply lose it? Despite a damp course, Merion was every bit as difficult as expected and had the greens been quicker, who knows what the winning score would have been. Merion deserves another crack at hosting the tournament, as all four days provided thrilling action.
As for Rose, he has made the cut five times from seven starts at River Highlands, and he’s posted three top 10s (including a third-place finish). This track suits his game and while he may suffer from his tiring exertions, he’ll be relaxed and brimming with confidence. Playing with no pressure, he could easily make another top 10 finish, for which he is 2.29 with BETDAQ. However, he is worth taking on at that price as he has hopefully partied hard – deservedly so – with his lovely wife, Kate.
We can’t knock the blossom off Rose’s triumph and he’s favourite for a reason. He looks the most obvious call. Had he been a few points bigger, he would be among our leading fancies. But at the prices, we’ll look elsewhere for the winner.
So who are our six that appeal this week?
Bubba Watson @ 22.0
Aside from GIR, one stat that we should perhaps look at is Par 4 Birdie or Better percentage and Watson tops the charts in this category. There are 12 par 4s and he’s long off the tee. He is also 5th in GIR percentage and a respectable 23rd in Par 4 Performance. His course history – a win in 2010, second last year and made five of six cuts – is better than his recent form, which shows just one top 10 on Tour, and that was a T4 in the opening Hyundai Tournament of Champions in January. His best outside of Match Play was a T14 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Still, the stats say this is a course that suits his game and he will feel it is high time he delivered a big performance.
Webb Simpson @ 33.0
Four days removed from being the reigning U.S. Open champion, Simpson may not be everyone’s idea of a potential winner, despite making the cut on each of his five trips here previously (with one Top 25 finish). But he has three top 10s this year, and his second place finish came at the RBC Heritage, a week after the Masters. That course, like River Highlands, is similar in many ways. But what we should be considering with Simpson is his knack of coming on strong on Saturdays. His Round 3 Scoring Average is way better than it is in the final round, making him a reasonable back-to-lay proposition.
Charley Hoffman @ 50.0
It was a toss-up between Hoffman and Billy Horschel for this pick. Both showed up on the leader board at the U.S. Open but despite Horschel’s Par 4 Birdie or Better stats (2nd only to Watson), he is 133rd in Scrambling. Hoffman, a respectable 30th in Par 4 Birdie or Better, is just 11th in Birdie Average and has made five consecutive cuts. He has made the top 10 four times this season and has yet to shoot a round over par in his last three trips to River Highlands. Second last year, he has finished at eight-under-par twice and 13-under in his last three visits. There’s plenty to like.
Chris Kirk @ 80.0
His runner-up finish at Pebble Beach seems a long time ago now, but Kirk has only missed two cuts all season and just look at his consistency. In nine completed tournaments since, he has made par or shot below par on 26 of his 36 rounds and finished over par in just three of them. Fourth in Par 4 Birdie or Better average, 11th in Stokes Gained Putting and currently first in Scrambling, the only question is whether this course will play too long for him and whether he will hit enough Greens In Regulation. If he can, then the Georgia Bulldog has the ability to post a low score and be in contention on Sunday.
Robert Garrigus @ 122.0
We could easily have gone for John Rollins, who has back-to-back top-sixes and has great course form in the last two years (T2 and T4). Likewise, Ryan Moore’s history at River Highlands includes two runner-ups and a T4. But they are available at 39.0 and 42.0 respectively with BETDAQ. So instead – not for the first time – we are putting our faith in Garrigus, whose bombing off the tee will be useful (fourth in Driving Distance) at the par 4s, as will his propensity to make birdies (13th in Birdie Average and ranks a reasonable 39th place in the Par 4 Birdie or Better category). It is a course where he has scored well before – 11-under-par in 2009 and level-par on his last visit in 2010. If he has recovered from the thrill of fatherhood for the second time, which forced his withdrawal from The Memorial Tournament, he could be relaxed and ready to roll.
Chris Stroud @ 160.0
With two top 10 finishes and four consecutive cuts made, the sixth-best scrambler on the Tour should perhaps be half these odds. Stroud is also 19th in Par 4 Performance and what he lacks in driving distance, he makes up for around and on the greens. His two top 10s this season came at Colonial (T7) and at Harbour Town (T6) – it’s no surprise that these are courses where accuracy is a prerequisite, both tracks comprising small greens, where a lot of thinking is required. Stroud has been under par in his last four tournaments here, shooting nine- six- 12- and five-under par respectively. If he is going to break his Tour duck, this seems a very likely spot. The more we delve, the more we like his chances.
Tournament Match Bets
Justin Rose to beat Hunter Mahan
Mahan had a chance to win the U.S. Open but threw it away. He does, however, have a great chance to put one over on Rose, since he heads to a course he likes; Mahan has been a runner-up and won his first Tour title here in 2007. Still, we’ll take a chance that Rose can maintain his fine form.
Ryan Moore to beat Keegan Bradley
Moore has been runner-up twice here and also had a T4 finish. So we’ll take the historic angle over current form in the hope that he can put behind him three missed cuts in his last four tournaments. Aside from his Byron Nelson runner-up finish, Bradley has also been struggling, with three missed cuts in his last five tournaments.
Brendon De Jonge to beat Freddie Jacobson
With two top 10s in his five visits here and a T15 at The Players Championship, it would not be a great shock to see De Jonge break his Tour duck. He has been very consistent this season, with his T9 at Harbour Town and T22 at Colonial making him an interesting outside bet. Jacobson isn’t playing badly, but he’s narrowly missed the cut in his last two tournaments. Jacobson’s course form here – a win in 2011 and T8 finish last year – means it is a tough call.
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