NOW IT’S 14 WINNING BETS IN FIVE DAYS: Three more winners yesterday took Daqman’s total to 14 in five days. His first Special Bet, Jadanna (2nd 8-1), twice had to be switched and closed the leader down too late at Ripon last night.
THREE ACES FOR 32 POINTS PROFIT: He made a profit for the fourth day in five – 32 points, in fact – with Ace Fighter Pilot (WON 7-2), Blanc De Chine (WON 11-4) and Another Hero (WON 5-4). Today’s nap and Special Bet are both at Pontefract.
How much of your betting is ‘what might have been’ and ‘what you should have done’? I had both feelings in the same race yesterday, with my first Special Bet; it was in the Summer Sprint at Ripon, and it was second at 8-1 (from 11.0 on BETDAQ).
Jadanna might have won but for having to be switched. I could have backed it each way. I should have put a place nap on it. Could, should, might..
But, in fact, if truth be known, Jadanna was never going to catch the leader, not without another furlong or so at any rate and, if my mission is to find offers at too long a price, which would show a return over time, I had not failed.
It’s just that, like any other punter, I like a quick result, even though I know that it’s a sequence of consistent results that will guarantee a genuine profit.
In the general overview, I am trying to keep up three-winners-a-day average, but they don’t make it easy with dross meetings, and small fields because of the firmish ground.
Admittedly, the tracks are on a hiding to nothing: witness another ‘might have been’, Local Hero, who dropped out of Market Rasen on Sunday, despite watering by the racecourse executive.
The only bonus is that punters forget so, hopefully, there’ll be even better offers available about the Rasen specialist (well, he’s two out of two anyway).
And to put it all into perspective, imagine you are the trainer – in this case Steve Gollings – with your best-laid plans come to nothing, knowing that a Rasen race with cut in the ground is unlikely, if this sudden summer continues.
So my two ‘wrong prices’ of the last couple of days, Local Hero and Jadanna, add up to a ‘nonner’ and a second! And, again like every other punter, my next test is: to hang on in there, without changing my methods.
First thing I see is that Dean Ivory has a runner at Pontefract. Big news, Daqman.. hold the front page! Ok, he is not one of the racing world’s leading lights.
But we are used to the Radlett kid around Kempton Park and such, and I can’t remember seeing him at Ponty before, nor did his dad, Ken, frequent this track.
However, the Ivory dynasty is noted for placing horses well, and Kieren Fallon has struck up a 2-2 partnership with Links Drive Lady (4.30).
Though she’s high in the ratings by a couple of pounds, this Lady (I saw 7.0 being exchanged) set up a sequence last year, and I don’t think the trainer would have ‘let her go’ last time, if he hadn’t felt the mare had improved enough to warrant hitting the winning trail again at this level.
I don’t know how she’ll get on at Pontefract, with its infamous left-hand kink. You’d think she’s been a phantom winner of five races, with the Racing Post describing her leanings as Left-handed 0-5; Right 0-5.
She does indeed seem to be an improver, if judged by her step up the grades, from success in Class 5 (including on firm), then in class 4 and, last time out, class 3.
Sir Michael Stoute has a better-than-30% record on the Yorkshire course and Ryan Moore goes up for the one mount today, Sir Michael’s Ultrasonic (4.00), who has not been disgraced in three Group-3 races his season.
Easy isn’t it. Well, no. Ultrasonic has never won beyond 6f and, when she tried a mile at Epsom, was behind Gifted Girl and Ladys First, albeit on softish ground and with Paul Cole saying that Gifted Girl didn’t handle the course.
In fact, the handicapper thinks Ladys First is the best filly in the race (rated 110 to Gifted Girl’s 106 and Ulttrasonic’s 101). And they meet at level weights.
But Ladys First is a long-time bridesmaid – only one win though nine times in the frame in two seasons – and Gifted Girl takes a mighty keen hold (made all at Lingfield).
I thought that, with a clear run, Ultrasonic might have beaten them both in that Epsom race, staying on as though the new trip was right up her street.
As we said earlier, ‘what might have been’ is the easiest, and most expensive, of excuses. But we’ve got the price. Offers of up to 6.0 being exchanged this morning were double those for Gifted Girl and Ladys First. Ne plus ultra!
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points each, except in multiples)
BET 1.4pts win and place PERFECT SUMMER and 1.25pts win (stakes saver) NICKELS AND DIMES (3.15 Wolverhampton)
BET 4pts win (nap) ULTRASONIC (4.00 Pontefract)
SPECIAL BET 3.3pts win LINKS DRIVE LADY (4.30 Pontefract)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win MANSOREEN (5.00 Pontefract), with 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble the same one with ULTRASONIC (4.00 Pontefract) and LINKS DRIVE LADY (4.30 Pontefract)
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