DON’T LOOK A ‘GIFT’ HORSE IN THE MOUTH AT KEMPTON: Noble Gift may be overpriced because the colt has won only on soft ground, claims Daqman. He decides to trust the trainer and nap this one among his bets in four BETDAQ races at Kempton Park tonight.
ONE LINED UP FOR TOMORROW: Special Bet is back tomorrow after two good runs at 8-1 and 7-1. Daqman seems confident that the bet will make a profit, and says he has one lined up for Thursday. Watch this space!
Why don’t I take my own advice? In my frustration at the ‘hampered, late run’ of my first Special Bet on Monday, Jadanna (2nd 8-1), I moaned that I’d missed a place nap.
Result on Day 2 of the Special Bet at Pontefract yesterday: Links Drive Lady (2nd 7-1, led inside final furlong, headed near the line, beaten half a length). Placed again.
Obviously at those prices, I need only one Special Bet winner in seven to make a profit, and I’m convinced I’ll improve on that.
Incidentally, my official nap yesterday, Ultrasonic, was hampered again. That’s twice running. Last-chance saloon when she runs again. She could be making her own trouble.
Special Bet will be back on Thursday. I have one lined up for the opening of the Newmarket July Cup meeting. It should be a great day for selective betting, with Bath, Doncaster, Epsom and Warwick also on the agenda.
6.20 Kempton (Betdaq 1st UK Race Commission Free Apprentice Handicap) With four-year-olds going for a five-timer in this, and no winners below 9st, then Sheikh The Reins, Excellent Jem and Athletic are short-listed.
The apprentice riders rank as follows (on winners this year): William Twiston-Davies (Excellent Jem), Ryan Tate (Sheikh The Reins), then a gap to Michael Murphy (Welsh Inlet) and Philip Prince (Divinsky). The rest nowhere.
Common to both lists are Excellent Jem, still a maiden, but put up his best performance over CD (second) last December, and Sheikh The Reins, whose only success was his maiden over CD in November, 2011 but who has been dropped 10lb since last summer.
William Twiston-Davies could have ridden Welsh Inlet, on whom he’s won twice at Kempton over today’s trip. Athletic is 10lb higher than for his last win, and Dvinsky (2lb out of the handicap) is now 12.
7.20 Kempton (£200 Free Bets At betdaq.com) The way laid-back Henry takes the bookies for a ride is like taking Candy from a kid. He knows the time of day.
And right now Henry is hot, with a double at Kempton a week back, and a winner at Sandown on Friday, so that his current form figures are 11002010.
One of them, Cornish Path, had had just one previous run – well behind – this season and landed one of those Kempton wins at 20-1.
Jocasta Dawn has also had just the one outing but we know so little about her in terms of today’s conditions: she’s won on good and heavy turf, but how will she cope with Polytrack?
The stats say that she has the right draw. So, too, Heartsong, blinkered first time, and with his rating now dropped back below his last winning mark for the first time in a year and with Kempton form figures of 23 when at this lower level in the handicap.
Arctic Lynch has a long CV at Kempton, including placed there, and is down in the weights but has never won on the course. Ditto Elna Bright, unless you are prepared to go back more than three years.
Picture Dealer should enjoy the fast pace from Desert Strike and Decision By One but Ryan Moore will need to be at his best from the outside draw.
8.20 Kempton (Commission Free 1st Month At Betdaq Handicap): Older horses have a poor record in this, with three-year-olds going for the hat-trick, and looking strong, all four of them having been placed the last twice, two of them winners.
But intriguing that William Buick deserts Zamoyski to ride a six-year-old near-top weight, Scottish Boogie, on the gelding’s stable debut for Seamus Durack.
With Ryan Moore wanted by dad on Bobbyscot (and maybe wishing he wasn’t), Mickael Barzalona rides Tenure, on which Ryan won here at Kempton over 10f in March off an 8lb lower mark.
And Richard Hughes, who you’d normally expect to see on the Hannon runner (maybe Richard needs to claim off Aldwick Bay), is on Zamoyski. It’s a right riders’ roundabout, this race!
Your money can’t go far off course on the in-form Lady Cecil (Autun 5.0 on BETDAQ, still green but learning and should be straighter now) and Roger Varian (Tuscan Fun at 5.6, late developer like lots by Medicean).
8.50 Kempton (Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq Handicap) The hood has been the big winner this year, and Noble Gift wears one for the first time. Soaring Spirit is blinkered first time.
Mark Johnston sends two down from Yorkshire – Hunting Rights and recent Chepstow winning filly, Reggae Star – but his horses are all over the place this you, both venue wise and form wise.
It’s a tricky trace but I think you have to trust the trainer that Noble Gift, a winner twice with cut in the ground, will act on today’s surface, and he’s the form pick.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points each. One winner pays for the other bets)
BET 3pts win EXCELLENT JEM (6.20 Kempton)
BET 2pts win and place JOCASTA DAWN (7.20 Kempton)
BET 5pts win AUTUN and 4.3pts win TUSCAN FUN (8.20 Kempton)
BET 8pts win (nap) NOBLE GIFT (8.50 Kempton)
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