DAQMAN’S NAP WINS WITH THE OLD ONE-TWO: Daqman yesterday landed his nap, Tawhid (WON 15-8), and gave the one-two in the race at Newbury with a win-and-place bet on Enrol (2nd 9-1).
HE’S YOUR MAN (32.0) FOR THE AYR GOLD CUP: New recruit from France, Lover Man, is a Daqman Ayr Gold Cup bet at 32.0 this morning for the trainer who scored with Black Treacle at 33-1 at the Scottish festival yesterday.
More big-field sprint madness today as we reach the bling stage at Ayr: Silver and Gold. We usually look to yesterday’s Bronze to help us with the draw advantage. I backed the low draw. The high draw won: 27 beat 15, 18 and 20. Earlier, in the Ayrshire, I was on Aetna in stall 2, third, ‘done’ on the line by 27 and 23.
To claim ‘bad luck’ is the refuge of the loser, the non-professional, but my bet, Aetna, was called first by the racecourse commentator.
So convinced – by the commentary? – were exchange backers that Aetna was 1.18 in the closing stages while the ultimate winner, 20-1 Hazelrigg (yes, I tipped it last time it ran) was laid to £1 at 400.0 in running.
1.50 Newbury (Arc Trial) This is usually as much an Arc Trial as my junior-school three-legged race was a prep for the Olympic Games in 19nevermind. Two of the last three winners were handicappers.
However, every one of today’s field has run fair races in the pattern, though all that does for the punter is make it tricky. What can we safely leave out?
Main Sequence should be renamed Losing Sequence (or worse). He’s doggedly beaten himself consistently since winning another race with a misnomer, the Lingfield Derby Trial (May 2012).
Camborne is quirky but will like the ground, and the form horse – in fact, a filly – is Gifted Girl, who has run well on soft but doesn’t want it heavy.
Runner-up to the Group and Graded winner, Dank, at Arlington on a hard surface a month ago and has improved all year after a setback last season. A close second at the Epsom Derby meeting on softish ground. Snag for punters is that she’s upped in trip here: can she get it on the soft surface?
The alternatives are Contributer and Godolphin’s Kassiano, though much of his reputation hinges on the Meydan man-made surface, which hasn’t been translating to turf over here this season.
Contributer was in the Derby trials at Chester and Goodwood but needed strengthening up. Has had a holiday and goes well fresh. Big price at offers of 11.0 this morning.
2.05 Ayr (Doonside Cup) All have fair or better form on good to soft or deeper but official ratings (OR) and the Racing Post (RPR) have Sharestan clear.
The Godolphin gelding enjoyed a good run last summer on soft ground in Ireland at today’s Listed level and today’s RPR is despite their, inexplicably to me, dropping him 13lb for attempting Group 1 and 2 races in Meydan, or maybe I don’t understand the mysteries of the Press pundits.
Officially (OR) Sharestan stays exactly where he was at the start of his Dubai campaign, and he’s back in his comfort zone in this Listed on the soft today.
First Mohican (four wins out of five in UK) loves it soft. His trainer, Lady Cecil, is said to be continuing in the same vein as Sir Henry. More like she’s returning to the great days of Warren Place. I nap her later on.
2.20 Newbury (Mill Reef Stakes) Not a Classic guide. I can’t find a Newmarket Guineas winner from this since Mon Fils won the inaugural running (1972) and Richard Hannon gave the world a tip the following Spring by going to Moss Bros for a new suit for the Guineas presentation. A week before the race.
There have been a lot of great horses at East Everleigh since those days, and R Hannon senior and R Hannon junior may well rate one of their pair, Anticipated and Shamshon, with R Hughes, it seems, preferring Anticipated.
Anticipated has run fairly well in the French juveniles trials, the Papin and the Morny, but looks exposed as Group 3, a neck behind the Sirenia winner, Brown Sugar, in the Molecomb, which Supplicant might have won with a clear run.
Cable Bay has been doing something similar in England, third in the Champagne, fourth in the Gimcrack, and the handicapper has them dead level on 108. There’s certainly not much between Anticipated, Cable Bay and Figure Of Speech collaterally through Brown Sugar.
The unexposed Complicit (only two runs) is by a sire whose progeny do best on the soft, but had the stalls handlers to thank for even taking part at Ripon, when he won on the firm. If he behaves, he could be the surprise package.
Supplicant is by a soft-ground sire and looks like he’s the new Garswood at Richard Fahey’s. There was 5.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
2.40 Ayr Silver Cup The draw problems now are: will most of the jockeys try to come over to the seemingly favoured near side, so creating a traffic jam? Certainly I expect the biggest wedge of the split to be towards high numbers.
Second question: will they churn up the near side in doing so, leaving the fresher ground on the low-draw, far-rail side for the Gold later on?
I could write yards about the form and the draw would make it valueless, but I’m attracted by the cluster on the card of 7f horses who go a pace and all should like it soft: The Confessor (stall 24), trained by Henry Candy (say no more), by a soft-ground sire, at 26.0 on BETDAQ this morning as I write; Gandalak (19.5), claimed off and blinkered first time, a winner on heavy; and Boost And Spurs (20.0), front-runner with stamina, also a winner on heavy.
2.55 Newbury Four-year-olds lead the Classic year 7-3 in the decade, with no older winners – not a one – and you can also forget the favourite, according to the stats (25-1, 16d-1, 14-1 twice and 12-1 winners).
But it’s hard to swerve Lady Cecil’s Disclaimer, plummeting from the pattern, first run back since the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot, won by St Leger hero, Leading Light.
Disclaimer goes well fresh, has won on heavy ground and took the Goodwood Derby trial (Cocked Hat Stakes) from Contributer, who should tell us more in the Arc Trial earlier on the card. I was surprised to get 7.2 this morning.
3.50 Ayr Gold Cup By now then, we’d better look at both sides of the draw, in case the near side has been ploughed in the earlier plunder by the high stalls. The speed seems to be on that low-numbered far side See my ABC Guide on Thursday.
I’m sticking with the Silver Cup plan, that a van runner that stays 7f can win this. Additionally, Highland Colori (near stall; 19) has a very smart claimer in the saddle, and was 21.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
I like Lover Man (32.0) from the far-side draw in gate 10, dark horse of the race with good form in the mud in France and with his new trainer in form on the opening day of this Ayr Western Meeting with 33-1 Black Treacle.
Soft-surface lover Joe Eile (far side in 6) was placed in Ireland’s top 6f handicap and is a huge 50.0, as I write.
Much depends on how Great St Wilfrid winner, Baccarat (stall 14), copes with soft ground. He has the pedigree for it and is a lightly raced improver going places.
Jack Dexter has an excellent strike rate outside the pattern: 211111 on soft ground, including last year’s Bronze Cup. Has he too much weight? He has if the rain comes again. Maybe not if the ground dries out further. So many imponderables.
DAQMAN’S BETS (target kept low at 20 points because of soft ground)
BET 2pts win CONTRIBUTER and 1.4pts win (stakes saver) KASSIANO (1.50 Newbury)
BET 8.6pts win SHARESTAN and 3.2pts win (stakes saver) FIRST MOHICAN (2.05 Ayr)
BET 4.4pts win SUPPLICANT (2.20 Newbury)
BET 1pt win and place on each BOOTS AND SPURS and GANDALKA, and 0.8pts win and place THE CONFESSOR (2.40 Ayr).
BET 3.2pts win (nap) DISCLAIMER (2.55 Newbury)
BET 2.3pts win BACCARAT, 1pt win and place HIGHLAND COLORI, 0.6pts win and place LOVER MAN, and 0.5pts win and place JOE EILE (3.50 Ayr)
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