Andy Murray (1.33) vs. Milos Raonic (3.65)
AEGON CHAMPIONSHIPS: For Andy Murray, the Queen’s Club has always been about more than just a Wimbledon tune-up: it’s the site of his first ATP Tour victory, and also the place where he’s unquestionably had more success than anywhere else. On Sunday he’ll look to claim his fifth AEGON Championships title when he faces Canadian Milos Raonic on Centre Court, and he’s heavily favored (1.33) to get the job done.
One note of caution, though– Raonic has played terrific tennis throughout this tournament, holding on all 47 of his service games and vanquishing Bernard Tomic in straight sets in yesterday’s semifinal despite Tomic only committing two unforced errors in the entire match. Furthermore, Raonic has had some success against Murray in the past, beating him three times in their eight previous meetings and nearly picking up number four in the semifinals of the Australian Open earlier this year, when Murray came from behind to win in five sets. This will be their first meeting on grass, where Murray has had tremendous success throughout his career, but Raonic is an all-surface threat who should not be underestimated. He could very easily win this match, and that rings especially true to anybody who’s seen Murray in action over the past couple of days, when he looked very sluggish in dispatching Kyle Edmund and Marin Cilic, dropping a set in each match.
An interesting subplot here revolves around the coaches: Murray has reunited with Ivan Lendl, with whom he won his only two Grand Slam titles. Raonic, meanwhile, is coached by John McEnroe, Lendl’s hated rival back in the 80s and someone who never misses the chance to take a verbal jab at his old foe. I’m sure it would please McEnroe greatly if his pupil were able to throw a wrench in the Murray/Lendl reunification story, and the fact that Murray is such a heavy favorite here would make it even sweeter. For his part, Murray doesn’t seem to be paying much attention to the drama in the coaches’ box, as he was asked about it by reporters yesterday and responded by saying, “I don’t find it interesting. I’m playing Milos; I’m not playing John. Ivan is not on my side of the court.” While it’s totally understandable that Murray feels this way, I don’t think his viewpoint is shared by all. As a matter of fact, I expect the cameraman to spend almost as much time on the coaching box today as he does on the action.
As far as the match itself goes, I’m not at all convinced that it’s going to be as easy for Murray as the odds indicate. Maybe this is because I watched each of his last two matches and came away with the feeling that he’s a bit uninterested and mistake-prone at the moment, or maybe it’s because I saw Raonic absolutely dominate Bernard Tomic twenty-four hours ago, looking nothing like a man who was going to be a substantial underdog in his next match. Whatever the reason, I’m unconvinced that a gulf exists between Murray and Raonic, and this belief is strengthened by the fact that their head-to-head record would be 4-4 if Raonic had hung on in Australia a few months ago. An upset is a definite possibility here, and I think the price calls for a play on the underdog.
Recommendation: Raonic at 3.65, Raonic 2-1 (sets) at 6.4
