Arizona Cardinals (9-2, 8-3 ATS) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-7, 4-7 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Arizona -1.5 (45)
Significant Injuries
Arizona: WR Larry Fitzgerald (questionable– knee), LB Kenny Demens (out– hamstring), DT Ed Stinson (out– toe)
Atlanta: DT Paul Soliai (questionable– personal), CB Robert Alford (out– wrist)
Recent Trends
Arizona is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record
Arizona is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss
Arizona is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. NFC opponents
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall
The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Arizona’s last 6 road games
The UNDER is 9-3-1 in Arizona’s last 13 games vs. NFC opponents
The UNDER is 5-0 in Atlanta’s last 5 games vs. NFC opponents
The UNDER is 6-1 in Atlanta’s last 7 games overall
Three reasons to back Arizona
1. This is a mismatch: the Cardinals are 9-2 and the favorites to lock up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, while the Falcons are 4-7 and have covered just twice in their last 8 games. Arizona’s recent struggles on offense and the fact that this game is in Atlanta are the only two things keeping the line where it is, but it’s important to remember that Atlanta has been overvalued/overrated all season while the Cards have been undervalued. The 1.5-point number here is just an extension of that.
2. Arizona has a dominant defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in points allowed, surrendering just 17.7 per game. The strength of the unit is up front, and that group– Calais Campbell and Co.– should have a monster day against Atlanta’s substandard offensive line. The Falcons haven’t been able to recover from a rash of early-season injuries to the line and their offense has suffered as a result, with Matt Ryan essentially abandoning downfield passing in an effort to get rid of the ball quickly. Ryan will have to be peeled off the turf several times on Sunday, no doubt.
3. Drew Stanton has had a rough two weeks since being thrust back into the starting lineup, as he’s had to face two of the league’s top defenses in Detroit and Seattle. This week, though, Stanton faces a porous Falcons defense that ranks 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in both total yards allowed and pass yards allowed. Expect Stanton and the Arizona offense to come through in a big way on Sunday.
Three reasons to back Atlanta
1. The Falcons have steadily improved over the course of the season and they now stand on the brink of a playoff berth despite their early-season struggles. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are coming off a blowout loss and have produced just 17 combined points in their last two games. Don’t let the records food you– Atlanta just may be better than Arizona right now, and after this week’s game the football-watching world will view these two teams differently. Sharp bettors will act now before the general public catches on.
2. The Cardinals haven’t been able to run the ball all season– they rank 31st in rushing offense and are averaging well below 4 yards per carry– but the precision downfield passing of Carson Palmer had kept the offense afloat for most of the year. However, Palmer’s season-ending knee injury forced the team to turn back to Drew Stanton, and the results have been ugly. The Cards have been utterly unable to move the ball in Stanton’s last two starts and Stanton himself seems to be losing confidence. He’s not the guy you want to trust with your money in a road game against an elite quarterback like Matt Ryan.
3. Arizona has a tough defense but their obvious weakness is in the secondary, as they rank 25th in pass yards allowed. That makes them a great matchup for the pass-first Atlanta offense, a unit that ranks 7th in pass yards per game and features two of the game’s best wideouts in Julio Jones and Roddy White. With the unflappable “Matty Ice” leading the way, the Falcons will likely be in attack mode all day.
Prediction
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