ATP Beijing & Tokyo (Monday 1st October – Sunday 7th October 2012)
The Asian swing on the ATP tour enters its second week on Monday and it is Beijing, China and Tokyo, Japan that can boast two ATP 500 events with perhaps the strongest assembled fields since the US Open some three weeks ago. Before we press on and preview the week’s festivities I’ll take a brief moment to reflect on my picks for the previous seven days. Kuala Lumpur pick Kei Nishikori blew a golden opportunity to defeat eventual champion Juan Monaco in the last four. The Japanese player served for the match before eventually succumbing in an agonising tie break. Top seed David Ferrer was clearly worth taking on at odds-on and so it proved as losing finalist Julien Benneteau beat him fairly comfortably all told. Elsewhere Janko Tipsarevic came up against Gilles Simon, a player who is slowly becoming a bit of a nemesis to the Serbian. For some reason ‘Tipsy’ doesn’t enjoy playing the Frenchman and Simon took the opportunity to further improve his 4-1 head to head with a straight sets win. Nevertheless, as is often the case at this time of year, Simon’s body decided not to play ball in Sunday’s final and could only win three games in defeat to compatriot Richard Gasquet.
Moving onto this week and we’ll start with the event in Tokyo where Andy Murray makes a return to competitive tennis, following his epic US Open title win against Novak Djokovic, another player who returns to the tour at the Chinese tournament. The last three weeks must have been a total whirlwind for Murray who became Great Britain’s first male Grand Slam champion in a generation. It’s natural to think Murray may not have spent a great deal of time on the practice courts due to circumstances beyond his control so his preparation for the event could have been far from ideal. It goes without saying that Murray is the best player in the field but with plenty of opponents who could cause Murray issues over these shorter matches, it could pay to oppose the top seed this week. Fresh from helping his country win through to the Davis Cup final, not to mention a US Open semi final defeat to Murray in quite farcical weather, Czech Tomas Berdych could improve quite significantly on his 10-3 record at this event. Champion in 2008, Berdych knows what it takes to win the event and looks to be over the form issues that plagued his summer. Murray aside, none of the eight seeded players have progressed past the quarter finals here and whilst there are some dangerous floaters in Janko Tipsarevic, Juan Monaco, and Milos Raonic, Berdych has the game to win the Tokyo title for a second time. First up for Berdych will be unstable Frenchman Benoit Paire, with prospective matches against Kei Nishikori and Juan Monaco further down the line. ATP 500 events aren’t easy to win but if Berdych is fully tuned up for this, he’ll definitely be a threat.
Selection – Tomas Berdych
The second event this week comes from Beijing and Novak Djokovic has a quite imperious record in the Chinese capital. Champion in 2009 and 2010, Djokovic’s match record at the Olympic Green Tennis Centre reads 9-0 which illustrates the kind of dominance he has shown at the event. 2 titles and $1,000,000 in prize money later, Djokovic comes into the event a worthy favourite. In winning his two titles here, the Serbian has beaten several former and current top ten players in Gilles Simon, John Isner, David Ferrer, Robin Soderling, and Marin Cilic so fully deserves his blemish-free match record. Much has been made of Novak’s desire to end the year as word number one and in truth he is perhaps disappointed not to have taken advantage of Rafael Nadal’s absence on tour. Three titles in 2012 by Djokovic’s high standards is distinctly average but I fully expect him to make it four this week in China. He’ll be relatively (and deservedly) short from a price perspective and it wouldn’t take a great deal of imagination from me to put up and 8/15 shot as a pick. I’ll therefore take a chance on a player in Djokovic’s half of the draw in the hope that he or someone else can trip Novak up in his quest for a third Shanghai title. Marin Cilic looks to have been dealt a tasty looking draw and should benefit from it fully. Having twice made the final here in 2009 and again in 2011, the conditions suit the big-serving Croatian. Richard Gasquet in the last eight is a likely opponent for Cilic, with Djokovic waiting should he advance to the last four. Given the Serbian’s participation, the price about Cilic should be an attractive one and if presented an opportunity to trade out, I’ll be snatching it with both hands.
Selection – Marin Cilic
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
