NOVAK DJOKOVIC (1.21) vs. ANDY MURRAY (5.5)
DJOKOVIC vs MURRAY: We’ve seen this before, haven’t we? Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will meet in the Australian Open final for the fourth time on Sunday, and the three previous meetings haven’t gone too well for the Scotsman. Of course, Murray shouldn’t feel too bad, as nobody is having much success against Djokovic these days. The indomitable Serb has only lost once in his last 34 Grand Slam matches (!) and a win on Sunday would give him six Australian Open titles, equalling the great Roy Emerson’s record.
In other words, there’s a reason Djokovic is a prohibitive favorite here– not only is he the best in the world, but he’s repeatedly demonstrated his superiority over Murray in recent years, winning 13 of the last 15 head-to-head meetings between the two 28-year olds. There is no magic strategy or undiscovered weakness for Murray to exploit, so his path to victory is unclear.
That being said, Djokovic has certainly had moments of sloppiness in this tournament, most notably in his five-setter against Frenchman Gilles Simon, when he committed an astounding 100 (!!) unforced errors. He’s cleaned it up in his last couple of matches, though, breezing by Kei Nishikori in straight sets and vanquishing Roger Federer in four. Murray, meanwhile, has had difficulty in each of his last two matches and especially against Milos Raonic in the semifinals, when he had to rally from two-sets-to-one down while Djokovic was already comfortably resting, having defeated Federer the previous day. That means Murray will have only had 48 hours of rest heading into Sunday’s final compared to Djokovic’s 72, a factor that could come into play if the match stretches into the fourth and fifth sets.
And I do expect it to go beyond three sets, considering that Murray has taken at least one set off the Djoker in each of their last seven Grand Slam meetings and he’ll surely be giving it a “blood and guts” effort this time around. Murray knows the score: he’s approaching the tail-end of his prime and it’s looking more and more like he’ll go down as one of the sport’s perpetual bridesmaids. Opportunities like this are precious. Now, Djokovic doesn’t care one bit for any of that and he’s repeatedly demonstrated his mastery over Murray from the baseline, so the Scot will have to come up with something creative and hope for some mistakes out of the world No. 1. I find it highly unlikely that Murray is able to pull off the upset here, though I do expect a competitive match that features some long, entertaining sets.
Recommended Bets: Djokovic to win at 1.21, Djokovic 3-1 (sets) at 3.45, OVER 37.5 total games at 1.85
