FEDERER (2.2) VS. NADAL (1.81): In our preview of this tournament we spoke of how the “Big Four” in men’s tennis had actually been whittled down to a Big Two, with Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic clearly separating themselves from the other members of the foursome, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.
Well, it looks like that pronouncement was a bit premature. To the delight of tennis fans worldwide, this year’s Australian Open has unexpectedly provided us with the dream throwback final: Federer vs. Nadal, two men who defined the sport for a generation and hold 31 Grand Slam titles between them.
Age and injury have taken their toll on the two great champions over the past few years; Federer is 35 now, was seeded 17th this week and hasn’t won a Grand Slam since Wimbledon in 2012, while Nadal, at age 30, has predictably been worn down by his brutally physical style of play and hasn’t even advanced to the semifinal of a major since the 2014 French Open. For the last two weeks, however, the echoes of the past have been awakened, and with a little help from Denis Isotomin and Misha Zverev, who beat Djokovic and Murray, respectively, the seas have parted.
It wasn’t easy, of course– both men are coming off grueling 5-set semifinal victories, and each was pushed to five sets earlier in the tournament, as well. Nadal’s semifinal win over Grigor Dimitrov was especially dramatic, as the Spaniard fought off two break points at 4-4 in the fifth before breaking Dimitrov and then serving it out, with the match ending just shy of the 5-hour mark. Dimitrov is known to have patterned his game after Federer and the two are remarkably similar stylistically, so it can’t be a bad thing for Nadal to have just spent five hours on the court with him.
Let’s not kid ourselves, though: after 34 head-to-head matches, including 11 Grand Slam meetings, Federer and Nadal know each other implicitly. They know exactly what the other wants to do, what the weak points are, and how best to attack them. Federer knows he must serve well and continually pressure Nadal on the baseline, always staying in attack mode, while Nadal knows that he must be machine-like in his persistence, never blinking while chasing down everything the Swiss master sends at him and sending it back with his patented lefty topspin. We’ve seen it so many times before, classic after classic, iron vs. iron. And we know how it ends, don’t we?
Yes, the truth about this epic rivalry is that it’s been remarkably one-sided. Rafa Nadal has been more than a thorn in Federer’s side, he’s been his kryptonite, the one mountain that Fed just can’t seem to climb. Nadal holds a 23-11 head-to-head edge and it’s been even more pronounced in Grand Slams, with the Spaniard taking 9 of 11 meetings. As a matter of fact, Federer has never beaten Nadal in a Slam anywhere outside of Wimbledon, and the results have become increasingly lopsided through the years. One of their most memorable meetings was at the Australian final in 2009, when Rafa won an epic 5-setter and then consoled a sobbing Federer afterwards. In many ways, the match epitomized their rivalry– great tennis, class all around, and a somewhat predictable script that always has the same ending.
If you want to back Federer, you can cling to two reeds of hope: he won the last meeting, on hard courts in Basel back in 2015, and the series has been fairly even on hard courts, with Nadal holding a slim 9-7 edge.
And, I confess, I do want to back Federer. I have nothing against Nadal, yet I find myself rooting for Roger for some reason, and I think many people are in the same boat. His elegant style of tennis is a thing to behold, and his continued brilliance at such an advanced age (in tennis years, anyway) is downright inspirational. Yes, as a fan I’d like to see Federer win this match, and I certainly don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility.
Let’s talk about probability, however. Is a Federer win here possible? Of course. Based on everything we know and everything we’ve seen, however, it seems a bit improbable. His considerable reputation has always made Fed a bit overvalued in the rare instances that he’s the underdog, and I do believe he’s the sentimental favorite here, which might contribute to a price that is shorter than it should be. I have a hunch that Nadal will do what he does best in these situations: crush the dreams of his opponents. We shall see… I know I’ll be watching.
Recommendation: Nadal at 1.81, Nadal 3-1 (sets) at 4.7
