AUSTRALIAN OPEN: Grand Slam tennis is back, as the world’s best gather in Melbourne this week for the 112th staging of the Australian Open. First-round matches begin on Monday, and if history is any indication we should see some upsets right out of the gate.
This tournament has traditionally been the most unpredictable of the four Grand Slams, possibly due to its place on the calendar, but the emergence of the Big Four on the men’s side has changed that somewhat. Will we see new blood in the champion’s circle this time around, or will the kings of the sport reassert their dominance? And on the women’s side, is the Serena Williams era coming to a close, or will the 6-time champion add another title to her resume and possibly cement her status as the greatest female tennis player of all time? The next two weeks will provide some answers…
Men’s Draw
The “Big Four” in men’s tennis has effectively been whittled down to a Big Two: Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic. Roger Federer, at age 35, has now entered the “sentimental favorite” stage of his career and is seeded 17th, while Rafa Nadal’s body has betrayed him in recent years and the once-unbeatable Spaniard has been relegated to a 9-seed.
Murray has never won this tournament, losing in the final five times, but he was the world’s best player over the second half of last year and will carry the 1-seed in a major for the first time in his career. He has a favorable draw, as none of the sport’s young guns will block his path to the semifinal and American Sam Querry looks like the first seeded player he would face. Murray’s biggest obstacle could be the aforementioned Federer, who has beaten the Scot five straight times and would be his quarterfinal opponent if they both get that far. First, however, Federer would need to beat the likes of Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori, so there’s a good chance he never gets a shot at Murray.
Djokovic might have a bit tougher road to the semis with the likes of Fernando Verdasco, Dominic Thiem, and Grigor Dimitrov standing in his way, but he has a 19-5 career record against those three men and he looked razor sharp in Doha last week, dropping just two sets en route to his 67th career ATP singles title.
And while someone like Milos Raonic or 2014 champion Stan Wawrinka could sneak through, let’s face it: it would be a definite surprise if the champion turned out to be anyone other than Murray or Djokovic. Don’t let anyone tell you differently.
Recommendations
Novak Djokovic (2.72)- Djokovic wasn’t playing his best tennis towards the end of last season, no one would deny that, but he sure seemed to be at peak form at last week’s Qatar Open. His victory over Murray in the final had to feel good after Murray had eclipsed him in the year-end rankings for the first time, and the match looked very much like many other Djokovic/Murray battles, with the Serb having the upper hand for the most part and Murray scrambling to come back. The world No. 1 did just that, fighting off three match points in the second set to force a third, but he’s now just 11-25 in his career against Djokovic and still feels like the underdog when they meet. I think the Djoker is a fair value at the current price.
Alexander Zverev (78.0)- While he hasn’t spent much time in the deep end of the pool, the young German Zverev is a bonafide phenom who will be a force in men’s tennis for the next decade or more. At just 19, he’s the youngest player in the top 50 of the world rankings, but he’s improved by leaps and bounds in recent months, breaking through with a victory over Stan Wawrinka in the final of September’s St. Petersburg Open. Hard courts are his preferred surface and he has a favorable draw, avoiding both Murray and Djokovic until the semis, so he could make some serious noise over the next two weeks if things shake out right. As longshots go, he’s definitely a live one.
Women’s Draw
The women’s draw is considerably more wide open than the men’s side, and a surprise winner is a definite possibility. This is because the top seeds, Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber, have both looked out of sorts to open 2017, dropping matches as heavy favorites. Kerber, who has surpassed Williams in the rankings and enters this week as the 1-seed, has lost two of her three matches this year and looked nothing like the world’s best player when she was beaten in straight sets by Darya Kasatkina in Sydney last week.
Williams is also coming off a sloppy performance, as she sleepwalked her way to a 3-set loss at the hands of unheralded Madison Brengle ten days ago. Her career has been marked by occasional lapses of concentration, however, and I don’t think anyone would be too surprised if she ripped through her first few matches this week. But she does have a tricky draw, opening with Belinda Bencic, who upset her in Toronto in 2015, and needing to get past Dominika Cibulkova and the red-hot Johanna Konta on her way to the semis. With her customary short price (though not as short as usual), I think Serena may be one to avoid this time around.
Recommendations
Agnieszka Radwanska (22.0)- Radwanska played well last week in Sydney before losing to Johanna Konta in the final, and as the 3-seed she has a very favorable draw. Serena won’t be an issue until the semis, and Radwanska’s primary obstacle to getting there appears to be 5-seed Karolina Pliskova, the winner of last week’s Brisbane International. Well, it just so happens that “Aga” has absolutely dominated Pliskova in their head-to-head meetings, winning all seven of their matches in straight sets. A semifinalist last year, Radwanska fits the profile of someone who could take advantage of the muddled situation at the top and sneak off with a surprise Grand Slam victory.
Eugenie Bouchard (62.0)- One of the streakiest players in the world, Bouchard has experienced the highest of highs and the lowest of lows over the past couple of years, but she is fully healthy now and appeared in good form in Sydney last week, winning three matches before falling to eventual champion Johanna Konta in the semifinal. Though she is unseeded this year the 22-year old Canadian caught a favorable draw, opening with struggling American Louisa Chirico and looking toward a potential 4th-round match against Kerber, who, as detailed above, appears to be an extremely vulnerable 1-seed. Bouchard has played well in this tournament in the past, advancing to the semis in 2014 and the quarterfinal in 2015, and her form last week suggests that she may be worth a shot at better than 60/1.
