Sports bettors, regardless of whether they’re of the serious or casual variety, value reliability and consistency, which means the first few weeks of every NFL season are always a bit nerve-wracking. Because of the way the league is structured (salary cap, salary floor, draft rules, waiver/player acquisition rules, etc.) the NFL is far and away the most unpredictable of the major American sports leagues, making a “roll with the punches” attitude a necessity for NFL bettors, especially in September.
With that in mind, here’s a rundown of a few surprising developments that we’ve seen early in this 2014 season:
— Bengals this good!?!?
In recent years the Marvin Lewis-led Bengals have successfully shed the “loser” label and have become a respected team, but I don’t think anyone has really taken them seriously as Super Bowl contenders. A lot of that has to do with their failings in the playoffs, where they’ve flamed out in the first round in each of the past three seasons.
However, after three weeks of the 2014 season there’s a clear-cut best team in football, and it ain’t the Seahawks. It’s not just that Cincinnati is one of only three remaining unbeaten teams, it’s the way they’ve won: their +47 point differential leads the league by a wide margin (so it’s not surprising that they’ve been perfect against the spread), they rank 1st in points allowed and 7th in total offense, and the three teams they’ve beaten are a combined 5-1 when facing teams not led by a red-headed quarterback. The Bengals are rolling.
— Kaepernick Era on shaky ground?
Over the past couple of seasons there’s been a lot of praise heaped on young San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick, much of it deserved. However, with the Niners stumbling to a 1-2 start in which they’ve been outscored 52-3 in the 3rd and 4th quarters, the heat on Kaepernick has suddenly been turned up. The same people who used to gloss over his flaws as a pocket passer while praising the rest of his game seemed to have turned on him, blaming him for the team’s current predicament. In recent days it has been widely suggested that 49ers management may not view Kaepernick as the long-term answer at the position, which would’ve seemed ludicrous just three weeks ago. Remember, this is the guy that ESPN analyst and former NFL QB Ron Jaworski once said may go down as the greatest quarterback the league has ever seen.
Why have people suddenly soured on Kaepernick? Well, he hasn’t been particularly good this season, there’s no disputing that, and three hideous 2nd-half turnovers in a Week 2 loss to Chicago undoubtedly cost the Niners that game. However, he’s never been a particularly accurate passer, even when the team has been winning– last season, for instance, San Francisco finished 30th in passing offense, and they finished 23rd the year before, when they won the NFC. From purely a yardage standpoint, the Niners are actually getting more production out of their passing game this season than they have at any point since Kaepernick took over.
Moreover, there’s just not many other options on the roster right now. It’s not like there’s a proven veteran who could be relied upon or a promising young player who just hasn’t had a chance; no, behind Kaepernick there’s only Blaine Gabbert, a player who has had plenty of chances and has failed spectacularly. It looks like the Niners are going to have to ride this one out, for better or worse.
— They can’t get any worse. Wait… yes they can
NFL observers know that the unpredictability of the league means we see “worst to first” teams nearly every year, so every offseason there’s considerable examination of the “bad” teams in an effort to pinpoint which of those teams will improve dramatically. After all, there’s some money to be made if you can predict the rise of a team like Kansas City last year (or possibly Houston this year).
We get in trouble, though, when our attempts to find that diamond in the rough lead us to believing in teams that just aren’t worth believing in. Here’s are three teams that have made their believers look exceptionally foolish this season:
TAMPA BAY- Sadly, I was one of many who thought there might be something brewing in Tampa heading into the season, only to find out that whatever is “brewing” is something that I want to keep my money far away from. The Bucs have been awful under first-year coach Lovie Smith, losing their three games by 50 combined points and looking even worse than the team that got Greg Schiano fired last year. The struggles on offense, though hard to watch, are understandable, but the performance of the defense is inexcusable considering the talent on-hand and the experience of the coaching staff. Those of us who had faith in a Lovie Smith-led turnaround in Tampa are looking bad at the moment.
OAKLAND- The misery continues in Oakland, as any preseason optimism has been totally squashed by the all-too-familiar stench of incompetence. General Manager Reggie McKenzie has completely re-shaped both the roster and coaching staff since taking over in 2012 but there hasn’t been any tangible improvement, and head coach Dennis Allen, who seems thoroughly overmatched, is approaching “dead man walking” status. The Raiders rank last in the league in both total offense and points scored, they start a rookie at quarterback, and one of their defensive captains publicly declared “we suck” after a humiliating Week 2 home loss. Yep, a bad situation in Oakland has somehow gotten worse.
JACKSONVILLE- Perhaps no team had more “they’re turning it around” pieces written about them in the preseason than Jacksonville, a team that everyone agreed HAD to be better than they were in 2013. After all, the Jags were being discussed as the worst team in NFL history at the midpoint of last season before scraping together 4 wins over the second half of the year. And General Manager David Caldwell, who has been proclaimed the “right guy” (for some reason) by the NFL media since taking the job with the Jags, was active in free agency and made a splash in the draft by selecting a quarterback and two receivers in the first 2 rounds. The results, however, have been less than inspiring, to say the least. Somehow the Jags are even worse than they were in 2013, as their -75 point differential is the worst in franchise history through 3 games of a season. They’ve surrendered more points– 119– through three weeks than any team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. And now they’re playing their last remaining “hope” card– rookie quarterback Blake Bortles. If things don’t improve with Bortles under center (and I doubt they will), the powers that be in the league office may want to consider relegating the Jags to the Arena League. They already have the appropriate uniforms…
— Reliable offenses stuck in the muck
Great quarterbacks are one of the only things NFL bettors can truly rely on. Year in and year out, the league’s best quarterbacks– guys like Manning, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers– lead great offenses that drive their teams to Super Bowl contention. This season, though, both New England and Green Bay, two teams that have been permanent fixtures atop the total offense rankings for years, have been struggling to move the ball. The Patriots rank 26th in total offense and the Packers 28th, with only Minnesota (minus Adrian Peterson), Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Oakland averaging fewer yards per game than Aaron Rodgers and Co.
Two questions come to mind: 1. How has this happened?, and 2. Is it going to get any better? The “how” part is probably easier to answer, as both teams have seen a deterioration of their skill-position talent over the past few years and neither line is playing well. Neither quarterback has a prototypical “number 1” receiver at his disposal, the big, athletic guy who commands a double-team. Instead, the key playmakers on both offenses are smallish wideouts who would be considered “slot guys” on many teams and (in the case of New England) tight ends. The result has been a lack of explosiveness that has turned these once-feared offenses into toothless dink-and-dunk attacks.
Is this a permanent affliction? Well, we’ve seen what both Brady and Rodgers can do, so I don’t think anyone would be shocked if these teams got it rolling again. We saw it last year in New England– the Pats averaged just 19 points per game over their first 5 contests, but things soon started clicking and they scored 34.7 points per game in Weeks 6-9. Still, banking on “we’ve seen this before” isn’t comforting, because at some point all things come to an end and Tom Brady is 37 years old. Rodgers is a bit younger, but the Green Bay offense has been in steady decline over the past two years and it’s time for bettors to start asking some tough questions. Is the reliable Old Guard quickly becoming unreliable?
— Break up the Cardinals
Arizona had a good season last year, winning 10 games and missing the playoffs only because they played in the vicious NFC West. However, heading into this season I don’t think many people thought they would gain serious ground on division heavyweights Seattle and San Francisco, much less overtake those two teams. Through three weeks of the 2014 season, though, the Cardinals have unquestionably been better than both the Seahawks and 49ers and have established themselves as a legitimate contender in the crowded NFC. Even more impressive is the fact that they’ve won their last two games– including an upset of the Niners– with backup quarterback Drew Stanton at the helm. Stanton has played well in relief of Carson Palmer but he’s clearly not on Palmer’s level, which is why the team is surely encouraged by the news that Palmer’s nerve issues are healing and he’s expected back soon, possibly by Week 5.
Can the Cardinals keep this up? It’ll be a bonanza for their bettors if they do, because it always takes teams with losing traditions (like Arizona) awhile to win public trust, which makes for advantageous lines in the meantime. Still… the Cardinals as a legit Super Bowl contender? Nobody saw that coming a month ago…
