Vegas Line Moves: Week 8
Las Vegas is the epicenter of NFL betting, so examining line moves and betting patterns at the biggest Vegas sportsbooks can be instructive. Here are a few lines that have been on the move in Week 8:
* VegasInsider “consensus” data used
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas opening line: Seattle -3.5 Vegas current line: Seattle -5
BETDAQ Line: Seattle -5
The defending champs are reeling a bit after two straight losses and the controversial trade of one of their best offensive players, but bettors still have ample faith in them as a short road favorite against the inconsistent Panthers. You’d be tempted to replace the word “inconsistent” with the word “awful” when describing Carolina, but you’d be forgetting that they’ve played pretty well at home this season, notching wins against Detroit and Chicago and losing only once.
Still, when they’re bad, they’re bad: all three of Carolina’s losses have come by 18 points or more, so bettors have “Panthers being blown out” burned into their collective memories. The latest example came last week, when Green Bay raced out to a 28-0 lead before Cam Newton and the Carolina offense had gained 50 total yards. It certainly won’t get any easier for Newton this week against a highly-motivated Legion of Boom, but at least the Panthers defense gets to trade the relentless Aaron Rodgers-led aerial assault for the run-first stylings of the Seahawks. Remember also that Seattle traditionally struggles with bad teams on the road, covering just once in their last 5 road games against teams with losing records (and here’s where you’d point out that Carolina doesn’t have a losing record, and you’d be correct. Thought that little bit of info still had some relevance, though).
Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas opening line: Miami -4 Vegas current line: Miami -6
BETDAQ Line: Miami -6
The Jaguars have clearly improved after a disastrous first month of the season, but bettors aren’t yet ready to jump on the bandwagon and have sided with the visiting Dolphins this week. You can’t really blame them after what Miami did to a decent Chicago team last Sunday, gashing the Bears defense and making Jay Cutler look bad en route to a 13-point victory. The Dolphins went heavy on the zone-read concepts in the running game– a hallmark of first-year coordinator Bill Lazor’s offense– and allowed Ryan Tannehill to run a bit more than he had in previous games this season, and the result was a triumph in efficiency and effectiveness: Tannehill completed 25 of his 32 passes for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns while also adding 48 rushing yards on 6 carries, and Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas combined for 86 more yards and a score on the ground.
And while the Chicago defense certainly isn’t one of the league’s best, neither is Jacksonville’s. As a matter of fact, the Jags surrendered more points through the first four games of this season than any team has in the first four games of any season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. They’ve tightened things up though, allowing just 39 combined points in their last 3 games and finally picking up a win last week. I have a feeling we may see some late money– which people routinely (and usually mistakenly) call “sharp money”– come in on the Jags, a home ‘dog on the upswing. After all, you have to go back more than a decade to find another instance of Miami being favored by 6 points or more on the road.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas opening line: Cincinnati -3 Vegas current line: Cincinnati -1
BETDAQ Line: Cincinnati -1
No team has come unraveled as quickly and as dramatically as the Bengals, so it’s no surprise that there weren’t many takers when they opened as 3-point home favorites this week against division rival Baltimore. The line now sits at Cincinnati -1 throughout Vegas (and at BETDAQ), and if news trickles down that A.J. Green, Cincinnati’s All Pro wideout, will miss another game with his foot injury, then I think you may see Baltimore favored by the time this one kicks off on Sunday. And while the Bengals have been publicly optimistic about Green’s chances of playing this week, the fact that he has yet to practice (as of Wednesday) speaks volumes. If he does play, though, he could make a huge difference, as the secondary is the only vulnerable part of a Ravens defense that leads the NFL in points allowed (14.9 ppg).
With or without Green, Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton must play better than he has over the past few weeks if the Bengals plan on making a return trip to the postseason. His counterpart on Sunday, Baltimore’s Joe Flacco, is enjoying an excellent season thanks in part to the arrival of Steve Smith, who leads the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. The Ravens rank 7th in total offense and 6th in points scored (27.6 ppg), but when these teams met in Week 1 the Bengals limited Flacco and Co. to just 16 points in a 23-16 Cincinnati win. Over their past three games, though, the Bengals have surrendered a whopping 107 combined points, so it’ll certainly be surprising if the Ravens can’t reach 20 points this time around. Everything seems to be working in Baltimore’s favor, but I’m not as eager as everyone else, apparently, when it comes to betting against a team that’s 13-3 against the number in their last 16 home games, especially when that team is coming off an embarrassing shutout loss and is facing a bitter rival. When you test the professional pride of world-class athletes they often come out swinging, and I fully expect the Bengals to give Baltimore all they can handle on Sunday. Proceed with caution here.
