Vegas Line Moves: Week 10
Las Vegas is the epicenter of NFL betting, so examining line moves and betting patterns at the biggest Vegas sportsbooks can be instructive. Here are three lines that have been on the move in Week 10:
* VegasInsider “consensus” data used
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints
Vegas opening line: New Orleans -3 Vegas current line: New Orleans -5
BETDAQ Line: New Orleans -5.5
Bettors have jumped at the opportunity to back the Saints in the Superdome against the struggling Niners, and who can blame them? After what we’ve seen out of both teams recently, it’s difficult to imagine the Colin Kaepernick-led San Francisco offense keeping up with the Saints in the Dome. After all, the Niners produced just 10 points last week in a home loss to the lowly Rams, and that was preceded by a 17-point outing in a blowout loss to Denver. New Orleans, meanwhile, ranks 2nd in total offense and 5th in points scored, averaging 28.4 points per game.
However, the Saints have had difficulty with teams like San Francisco in the past– big, physical, run-first teams with defenses capable of pressuring Drew Brees– and the four games these teams have played since 2010 have been fairly evenly-matched, with each team winning twice and New Orleans never winning by more than 3. The 49ers are a veteran team in a backs-to-the-wall situation and they’re facing a defense that has surrendered 23 points or more 6 times in 8 games this season. I certainly understand the desire to back the Saints at home, but I have a hunch the Niners may have some fight left in them. We’ll find out this weekend.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets
Vegas opening line: Pittsburgh -3 Vegas current line: Pittsburgh -5
BETDAQ Line: Pittsburgh -4.5
For some people, you probably couldn’t come up with a number big enough to take them off of Pittsburgh in this situation, especially when you consider how well the Steelers have played lately. The Steelers are rising, the Jets are perpetually sinking, and Ben Roethlisberger, who has been slinging it around at a record-setting pace over the past two weeks, should be able to rain down touchdown passes on a New York secondary that’s been without an umbrella all season.
The Pittsburgh defense is vulnerable, though, and the Jets rank 3rd in the league in rush yards per game, so a tight, grind-it-out game in which the 4 or 5-point number becomes a factor is a definite possibility. And the New York offense showed off their shiny new toy last week, as Percy Harvin hauled in 11 receptions for 129 yards against a tough Kansas City defense, providing the team with a much-needed spark and proving that he remains one of the league’s most explosive players. With Harvin in the fold and Geno Smith on the bench, the Jets are undoubtedly inching closer to respectability on the offensive side of the ball. Still, I think I side with popular opinion here– the Jets are a sinking ship, and they’re not taking any more of my money down with them.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas opening line: Tampa Bay -1 Vegas current line: Atlanta -2.5
BETDAQ Line: Atlanta -1.5
The Falcons are receiving a lot of love for a team that has repeatedly broken bettors’ hearts this season, but that’s mostly because nobody want to throw any money at their opposition– the Tampa Bay Bucs, a team that’s won just once in 8 games and ranks 30th in point differential (-95, better than only Jacksonville and the NY Jets). The Bucs have been terrible on both sides of the ball but they’ve been particularly bad on defense, surrendering 400 yards and 30.6 points per game. In case you aren’t already appalled by those figures, just know that only one team has surrendered more yards and no team (that’s right, NO TEAM) has surrendered more points than Tampa this season.
Of course, relying on the Falcons has proven to be a bad idea, as well. They lure you in because of their very visible assets– a Pro Bowl quarterback and an elite tandem of wideouts– but they’re a team that’s rotten to the core. Their offensive line can’t protect Matt Ryan or open up adequate space in the running game, and their defense JUST. CAN’T. STOP. ANYBODY. Remember how we mentioned that only one team has surrendered more yards than Tampa this season? Well…take a guess at who that team is. Yup, it’s the Falcons, who have been steamrolled to the tune of 409 yards per game thus far in 2014. Why, then, are bettors so keen on backing a team that’s lost 5 straight games and ranks last in yards allowed? Well, maybe it has something to do with the last time these teams met, back in Week 3. The score that day? Atlanta- 56 Tampa Bay- 14. If you ride with the Bucs this week and lose, you are, in fact, incredibly stupid. We must ask ourselves: are our attempts to shrewdly outmaneuver the public and get in on the home ‘dog worth the justifiable self-hate and ridicule that would accompany a loss? And if you worry about that type of thing, should you immediately cease betting on sports and consult the nearest psychiatrist? God I love football season.
