BIG RACE PREVIEW: A huge field goes to post for Saturday’s Cambridgeshire at Newmarket and we’ve turned to ten year trends to help find the best picks.
When trying to pick through a field of 35+ runners in just about the most competitive handicap of them all, then analysis such as the 10 year trends may just help narrow down the field to the most likely types. The trends suggest that a three-year-old with a rating hovering around 98, carrying a weight somewhere in the region of 8st 11lb and with a proven ability to see out the fairly specialist trip of nine furlongs could become a focus for attention and horses such as Anmaat, Fantastic Fox and Uncle Bryn are there or thereabouts on the trends.
Anmaat comes here in great heart having won three of his five races this season and looking for a hat-trick of victories. He also ticks another important box in so much that he has won his two previous races over a distance of 10 furlongs and that has been a strong characteristic of recent winners too. He is also two pounds ‘well in’ versus his revised official mark and he will be near the top of many a punter’s lists. Uncle Bryn went into Winter quarters with Epsom Derby aspirations and following a seasonal debut third at Epsom in the Blue Riband Trial, he then blew out in the Dante Stakes behind no less than Hurricane Lane. Following a four-month break he returned at Ascot three weeks ago where he took a competitive Class 2 handicap off near top weight by three quarters of a length from Walhaan. That was a very solid effort and he comes here with a strong profile.
Fantastic Fox finished two and a half lengths behind Uncle Bryn on that occasion giving him 1lb and he meets the Gosden trained horse on 4lb better terms here. He is not an easy horse to call as he can wander about a little when push comes to shove and it could be that he is still a little bit green and still learning about the job. However all ground conditions seem to come alike to him and when looking at his first run of the season it is now apparent that he was chasing home Group 1 horses. Therefore his profile certainly fits that of a horse who will be suited by the test ahead of him in this particular race.
Magical Morning has to be of interest on the basis that one can assume that Frankie Dettori had the pick of the Gosden crop and the fact that he has chosen this horse over Uncle Bryn suggests that he must be going well at home. He is a relatively lightly raced four-year-old having only run nine times in his life and whilst there may not be too much scope in his mark of 106 he could feasibly find a couple of pounds of improvement for the extra furlong he will face here and he has to be in the mix.
Of the rest, Chichester has been extremely well back over the past week (from a reported 66/1 in places down to as low as 15/2) and Astro King looks primed to go well too for the Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore combination. However perhaps one other horse that may be going under the radar is the Godolphin owned Long Tradition. He was very impressive at Chelmsford in July following a gelding operation and he comes here totally unexposed. The fact that his owner/trainer combination are persevering with him is quite telling and it wouldn’t the biggest shock to see him go well at a double figure price.
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