BIG RACE PREVIEW: A stats-based approach to the big race of the day on Saturday. Our preview team put the Celebration Mile at Goodwood under the statistical microscope to try and pinpoint the winner.

Trends Point To Ben In Celebration Mile

Race Summary

3.35 Goodwood: A good mix of three-year-olds taking on older horses in a good renewal of the Celebration Mile. Chindit, Mutasaabeq and Perotto are all representing the classic generation and they bring a strong presence to the race. The older horses also carry some depth into the contest with the evergreen Benbatl, former winner Duke Of Hazzard, Happy Power and Pogo all potential likely types if the race is run to suit.

If we look at the 10 year trends then a very strong case can be made for Benbatl. The winner has had an average winning rating of 115 over the period (he is the only horse who can amass such a figure and he actually comes here rated 118), five of the past ten winners have won over further than a mile, only three of the past ten winners had won their previous race and five of the past ten winners returned as SP favourite. The son of Dubawi rates strongly across all of this criteria and if the ground continues to dry to good to firm come race time then he could be the one they all have to beat.

Chindit may be the main threat from the three-year-old generation. On the face of recent runs, it feels as though he has disappointed somewhat since winning the Greenham Stakes in the Spring. However he has competed only at Group 1 level since then. He was beaten less than five lengths in the 2000 Guineas, he was beaten just over five lengths in a rapid St James’s Palace Stakes and he was beaten just three lengths by Palace Pier in a red-hot Prix Jacques Le Marois at Deauville thirteen days ago. He too will love any further firming of the ground and if none the worse for recent excursions then he is right in the mix as he comes out the best horse at the weights.

Mutasaabeq is interesting stepping up to a mile again for just the second time in his career. The first time was in the 2000 Guineas back in May but this proved to be inconclusive as he was beaten some way out and he ran no sort of race. He bounced back to form on his favoured good ground surface at Haydock last time and he too will prefer the ground to keep quickening up. However is he good enough? The Britannia Stakes winner Perotto would be a popular winner for trainer Marcus Tregoning and he ran a storming race at Salisbury just over a fortnight ago when beaten a length into third place in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes. He had a 113 rated horse just behind him in fourth place and a repeat of that form would see him in the shake-up here.

Of the rest Duke Of Hazzard and Happy Power seem most likely to shake up those at the top of the market but if he is fit following a 337 day absence then Benbatl sets a high bar with his official rating of 118. His love of fast ground further increases his chances and he has a big chance to add to his considerable earnings. However if he isn’t match fit then this could be the perfect opportunity for Chindit to step down from Group 1 level and to step up to the plate and confirm the promise of his Greenham Stakes win.

Selection: Benbatl
Alternative: Chindit

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