BNP PARIBAS OPEN: One of the ATP Tour’s crown jewel events, the BNP Paribas Open, wraps up today in Indian Wells, California, and the fans will be treated to what should be a very competitive final between Switzerland’s two greatest players. Here’s what we can expect to see when Stan Wawrinka and Roger Federer meet for the 23rd time:
Roger Federer (1.46) vs. Stan Wawrinka (3.05)
It wouldn’t be quite right to call this a late-career renaissance for Federer because he’s maintained a shockingly high level of tennis over the years, but his win at the Australian Open in January was his first Grand Slam victory since 2012, which just so happens to be the last year he won this tournament. So call it what you want, but it sure seems like Federer took a long drink from the fountain of youth this winter and it’s great to see him in top form once again.
He entered this tournament as the 9-seed but has breezed right through the draw without losing a set or even a service game (!), and he should be especially fresh after winning the quarterfinal in a walkover when the mercurial Nick Kyrgios mysteriously withdrew. His semifinal win over American Jack Sock was vintage Federer, especially in the first set: the effortless yet perfect technique, the overpowering topspin forehand, the elegant backhand that can both control the pace of the point and finish it off with a winner…Sock saw it all, and he managed to win just one game in that first set before putting up more of a fight in the second. But now it’s on to the final for the Swiss master, where his younger countryman awaits.
A cursory glance at the head-to-head record between Federer and Wawrinka doesn’t really tell the whole story: yes, Federer has taken 19 of their 22 matches, but the series has been much more competitive in recent years, with Wawrinka picking up wins in the final of the 2014 Monte Carlo Masters and the quarterfinal of the 2015 French. They also played a thrilling 5-setter in the Australian Open semis just a few weeks ago, one that saw Federer win the first two sets before seemingly running out of gas and losing sets 3 and 4, only to rally for a 6-3 victory in the fifth. So if you’re expecting Federer to have an easy time of it today, you may be in for a surprise. This should be a very competitive match and there’s a very real chance that Wawrinka, who blew Pablo Carreno Busta off the court in the semifinal, pulls off the upset.
That being said, it should be pointed out that all three of Wawrinka’s wins over Federer have come on the clay, with Fed taking all 14 of their hard-court meetings. And it’s not like Wawrinka struggles on hard courts– he won the U.S. Open last year, after all– it’s just that Federer has been nearly unbeatable on the surface throughout his career. But despite his recent surge, the plain truth is that Federer is not quite the player he was a few years ago, and Wawrinka’s near miss in Australia could be a sign of things to come.
So… how can Wawrinka pull this off? What’s the game plan? He’s become known for his endurance in recent years, winning several high-pressure five-setters, but that won’t really come into play today, of course, because it’s best-of-three. But he surely gained lots of confidence from his performance in Australia a few weeks back, when he really turned the tide of the match after it looked like Federer was going to win without much trouble. He’ll need to be at his best with his service return game and will have to be very aggressive when the opportunities present themselves, but hey, that’s the kind of player Wawrinka is: an aggressive baseliner who often goes for winners when other players would be a bit more conservative. So he needs to be himself, let it all hang out, and hope that Federer doesn’t bring his ‘A’ game, which is a distinct possibility.
I think Fed probably gets the job done here, but it won’t be easy.
Recommendation: Federer at 1.46, Federer 2-1 (sets) at 3.9
