HAYE v BELLEW: Boxing is no stranger to incongruous match-ups. In a sporting sense, Haye v Bellew isn’t a contest that many people should be thrilled by. Tony Bellew is a World Champion cruiserweight while David Haye is an ex World Champion heavyweight on the comeback trail from retirement. Both fighters are moving towards separate goals.

Why this Fight?

The TV buy is king, and the ability of these fighters to fulfil the protagonist/antagonist roles trumps any logical match-making process.

Tony Bellew is a respected fighter, but his commendable and relatable performances in the media spotlight have propelled him to heights his natural ability might never have done. As for David Haye, we’re talking about a gifted boxer relative to Bellew. Blessed with speed and power, the occasionally objectionable Brit has used his tools to operate in the highest echelons of the heavyweight division for the better part of a decade now, retirements and comebacks notwithstanding.

There seems to be genuine animosity between the pair, and this seems to be the strongest justification for the match-up.

Can’t Look Past Haye

‘The Hayemaker’ may be in his mid-thirties and only three fights into his comeback, he still has power and he still has speed.

Weight difference is vital in boxing. We’ve recently seen two high profile examples of fighters who jumped weight and had their ambitions conclusively shut down. Kell Brook and Amir Khan both moved up the divisions when facing Gennady Golovkin and Saul Canelo Álvarez respectively. What followed were two extremely one sided contests that saw both fighters nailed by the preeminent favourites within six rounds.

Both Khan and Brook pointed to their superior speed and technique as they sought to justify their place in the ring with Alvarez (2/7 to beat Khan), and Golovkin (1/6 to dispatch Brook). What transpired was a painful realisation of those odds. Khan took Alvarez to round 6 before being floored by a brutal right hook. While Brook received a broken eye socket and the ignominy of having his corner man throw in the towel in the third round.

The problem for Bellew is two-fold. Despite being a relatively heavy hitter, ‘The Bomber’ might not have the power to trouble his naturally heavier opponent. Whereas Haye has knocked out 26 of the 28 heavyweights that he’s defeated. As for speed, the lighter Tony Bellew would typically hope to find advantage here. However Haye is the prototypical fast-hands heavyweight. An argument for the Liverpudlian becomes harder and harder to make.

Where’s the Value

What we don’t know is how David Haye will perform if taken deep on Saturday night. That’s his opponents stated gameplan. If Bellew can survive the first half of this fight, his power deficit, and potentially superior cardio could open a window for him.

He’s currently trading around 6.0 on our exchange, and at 1.20, Haye looks like poor value in a match bet.

Our recommendation is to back Haye to pack Bellew’s bags and send him home between rounds 3 and 6.

Back Haye Round 5 at 9.6.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQ-HayeBellew