Buffalo Bills (2-2, 2-2 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (3-1, 3-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Detroit -7.5 (44)
Significant Injuries
Buffalo: LB Randell Johnson (questionable– knee), G Chris Williams (questionable– back), WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable– concussion), LB Nigel Bradham (questionable– knee)
Detroit: S Don Carey (questionable– hamstring), OT Ladarius Waddle (questionable– calf), CB Cassius Vaughn (questionable– ankle), LB Travis Lewis (questionable– leg), RB Joique Bell (questionable– concussion), RB Theo Riddick (questionable– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Buffalo is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss
Buffalo is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games
Buffalo is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record
Detroit is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 October games
The UNDER is 4-0 in Buffalo’s last 4 games overall
The OVER is 17-5 in Buffalo’s last 22 games on artificial turf
The UNDER is 6-1 in Detroit’s last 7 games overall
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Buffalo
1. The Bills have been surprisingly good on defense this year, ranking 10th in yards allowed and surrendering just 18.8 points per game. Furthermore, their new defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz, was head coach of the Lions before he was fired following last season, so he knows Detroit’s offensive personnel implicitly and should be able to exploit weaknesses and tendencies.
2. The Lions are a terribly inconsistent team and that is largely due to the play of their quarterback, Matt Stafford, who has accounted for more turnovers since the beginning of last season than any quarterback in the league other than Geno Smith and Eli Manning. On Sunday Stafford’s favorite target, All Pro wideout Calvin Johnson, will be dealing with an ankle injury that severely limited his production last week.
3. Buffalo’s only discernible weakness– their passing attack– received a shot in the arm this week when head coach Doug Marrone announced that veteran Kyle Orton will be replacing E.J. Manuel at quarterback, effective immediately. Manuel has struggled mightily since coming into the league last season, while Orton is an experienced player who is an above-average pocket passer.
Three reasons to back Detroit
1. The Lions have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL this season, winning 3 of their 4 games despite facing a difficult schedule. The Bills, meanwhile, have lost two straight games and seem to be regressing.
2. Detroit leads the league in total defense and they rank 3rd in points allowed, surrendering just 15.5 points per game. On Sunday they’ll meet a Buffalo offense that has combined for just 27 points over the past two weeks and will be led by journeyman quarterback Kyle Orton, who hasn’t been a regular starter since 2011. The insertion of Orton into the starting lineup is a desperate (and likely doomed) attempt to resuscitate the NFL’s 31st-ranked passing attack.
3. The Lions are the superior team in this matchup by any conceivable measure– they have a better record than Buffalo, they score more points, allow fewer points, have a better quarterback, and they’re playing at home. The Bills, in case you haven’t heard, are terrible on the road, covering just 3 times in their last 12 attempts. This game has all the makings of a blowout.
Prediction
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