Buffalo Bills (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ Houston Texans (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Houston -3 (40.5)
Significant Injuries
Buffalo: WR Marquise Goodwin (doubtful– concussion), G Chris Williams (doubtful– back), WR Marcus Easley (out– knee), LB Randell Johnson (out– knee)
Houston: RB Arian Foster (questionable– hamstring), LB Jadeveon Clowney (out– knee), S Shiloh Keo (out– calf), S Eddie Pleasant (out– ankle)
Recent Trends
Buffalo is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss
Buffalo is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit home loss
Houston is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 4-0 in Houston’s last 4 games following a loss
The OVER is 7-2 in Houston’s last 9 September games
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Buffalo
1. Buffalo has been excellent in bounce-back situations under Doug Marrone, covering in 9 of their last 12 games following a loss. After a tough loss to San Diego last week, the Bills are a great value as a 3-point ‘dog against a team that has lost 15 of its last 17 games.
2. The Bills have one of the league’s most feared rushing attacks, as C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson combine for over 130 yards per game on the ground. The Texans, meanwhile, rank 25th in rushing defense and were gashed for 176 yards by Rashad Jennings last week. This is a great matchup for the Buffalo offense.
3. The Texans have a one-dimensional offense– they’ve run the ball on over 60% of their plays this season– and they may be without their best player for the second consecutive week, as running back Arian Foster is officially listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. That’s bad news against a Buffalo defense that ranks 5th against the run, surrendering just 83 rushing yards per game.
Three reasons to back Houston
1. Buffalo’s offense is entirely run-dependant– last week, when their running game was slowed by San Diego, they produced just 10 points in a losing effort. This has everything to do with their quarterback, E.J. Manuel, who is both inexperienced and inaccurate.
2. Houston has improved more from last season to this season than any team in the NFL, and the betting public has been understandably slow to catch on after watching them lose 14 games in 2013. That’s created a golden opportunity– the chance to back the Texans as a short home favorite against a mediocre Buffalo team that was soundly beaten last week.
3. The Texans have a stout defense that is allowing just 16.7 points per game, ranking 6th in the league. The Bills, meanwhile, rank 24th in total offense despite facing two terrible defenses (Chicago and Miami). It’s difficult to envision the Buffalo offense having much success at all in this game.
Prediction
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